Marcin Palade, a renowned Polish political scientist specialising in the analysis of election results and polls, raises discussions on the X portal, forecasting a amazing change in the number of mandates for the Pomeranian region in the upcoming elections to the European Parliament. According to his analysis, of the 3 mandates that were cast in erstwhile elections, only 2 will be awarded this time.
Forecast vote schedules in Gdansk district
Palade indicated specified calculations:
- Civil Coalition: 40%-42% of the vote, which will translate into 1 ticket.
- Law and Justice (PiS): 25%-27% of the votes, which besides results in 1 mandate being won.
- Third Road: 11%-13% of the vote – below the threshold to win the mandate.
- Left: 7%-9% of the vote.
- Confederation: 7%-9% of the vote.
All parties, with the exception of the Citizens' Coalition and the Law and Justice, are forecast not to exceed the electoral threshold that would let the European Parliament to get mandates. Let us add that the real test will take place on June 6-9.
Forecast of preferences (divided mandates) for EP in territory 1 (Gdansk):Organisation 40%-42% (1)@pisorgpl 25%-27% (1)#Third Way 11%-13%Left 7%-9%@CONFEDERATION_ 7%-9% pic.twitter.com/Gyj9lpjC4o
— Marcin Palade (@MarcinPalade) May 5, 2024Methods for converting votes into election seats
Two main methods of converting votes into mandates are utilized in the EP elections – a proportional strategy utilizing the D’Hondt method. Importantly, election turnout is crucial in these elections, as it straight affects the absolute number of votes cast on individual committees. For this reason, even advanced results in individual districts can have a crucial impact on the national allocation of mandates.
Impact of results in individual districts on national mandates
Although the organization can score a lower percent in a given district, the number of votes cast on it can importantly improve its position on a national scale, which in turn can translate into additional mandates. For example, a good consequence of the Law and Justice in the 2019 election in Lower Silesian-Opolskie with a evidence number of votes allowed this organization to get a higher number of seats despite the percent failure to the European Coalition.
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