I do not mean the ruling majority today, which has always had such, about 20 percent support. Indeed, fewer more eligible voters voted for Duda in 2015. Clearly little gave the absolute majority of the Law and Justice organization in the same year. This time, however, I mean not them, but 20% "ours". An crucial part, but not the full opposition electorate. I want to inform you – you won't win, don't let the sound you make confuse you.
If the turnout in the election is 60% (optimistic assumption), if the opposition has a full of 60% (also unfortunately a thick exaggeration), then there is simply a full of 0.6 x 0.6 of the total, or 36%. In fact, it is about a smaller number – if we take a grim image and the fact that attendance is closer to 50%, that the majority of the opposition is besides closer to balance and is inactive uncertain (!), we will see that we are possibly only 25, most likely about 30%, or about as many as we went to vote for Trzaskowski. In this group the strongest organization is, of course, the merit of the PO. Her hard, always faithful electorate, reaches – in crises it was visible – 15 to 20% of all voters. In the group, about 30% of opposition supporters make up a vast majority. And it's this group that gives the tone. Without it, nothing can be won, but it is she who has led us from 1 defeat to another, and she besides decides today. We know her from any investigation and from many not only election behaviors. It is those who will support even a horse in the election, if their leader exposes it, who will swallow all standing ovation for “border defenders” and all compromising vote, as many times on the substance of courts and many another matters. This is the speech that designates a marginal group in relation to the general electorate, but leading in the bubble of opposition. Unfortunately.
This group of voters powerfully advocated a common list of opposition. And it was her, too: there will be no common list. How does that happen? Why the paradox? The key is to see the planet of these people. And how their behaviour is perceived.
Today, they are manifested in full glory in the common grilling especially of Simon Holownia and his Pl 2050. This is how opposition mainstream is manifested, and the opposition around it is composed of ranks, as can be seen in devoted opposition to the media, and what is an example, for example, last illustration of the absolutely one-sounding voice of the people in Gazeta Wyborcza. Electoral is exaggerating and doing so intently, but the phenomenon does be and unfortunately takes on the degree of madness. He's the 1 I warn.
Simonites Sins
I could trade quite a few them myself. Starting with promises of a fresh policy listened to by the people making up the Pl 2050 movement, whose organization is to be only emanation. The holovnia utilized anatomical allegory of the heart with its own characteristic tendency to infantilism (social movement Pl 2050, which collected many tons of garbage into yellow plastic bags, after which it froze, not entirely able to find a unique identity first in pandemic and then against the war in Ukraine), the head (think-tank strategy 2050, developing average first papers whose groundbreaking meaning is alternatively that they were created and which say “we have a program and others do not”) and the hands (party Pl 2050, which...) Well, the Pl 2050 party, contrary to revived declarations, has the most anti-democratic of all the statutes of the Polish parties known to me, and it presents no novelty, but exercises (ineptly, anyway) in the same cabinet techniques which policies have compromised, leading to a deep crisis of democracy. A long list of my charges against Holowna ends and completes the course for a separate start in the election and this peculiar charge, unlike others, is to perceive widely today.
The accompanying thesis about the “exuberant ego” Holownia, which is to origin these behaviours, is, however, false and as infantile as talking about the heart, head and hands in the “yellow family”. A separate course of Pl 2050 results in reality from systemic conditions of politics, mainly from organization feudalism, which in Polish politics affects everyone, not Holownia 1 has here behind the ears and it is not liable for the reality which he found and in which he tries to find with doubtful charm and completely without skill. I would not like any specified organization to have the right to compete for power in Poland, even in Europe. He'll come back to this due to the fact that this is 1 of the most crucial problems, and he's completely overlooked.
Meanwhile, in revenge for Holowna's initiative, the loudest sounds are many things completely different and mostly completely false – here the "yellows" had uphill since the start. "Who stands behind him" or "where has the money" is simply a standard set of questions that falls on all fresh 1 and this talk, conspiracy and Smolensk syndrome, serves alongside many another things to perpetuate a powerfully bad state of politics that we know and otherwise dislike. If it is actual that a fresh political initiative requires multi-million-dollar investment, then each fresh initiative must be the victim of suspicion of secret backing from any power-maker, whom it is not even essential to indicate, due to the fact that we know without uncertainty that he is wicked. But, of course, Holownia is primarily a Catholic, so it was always the V column of the episcopal, the PiS diversion, which is expected to break the opposition, etc. A frequent comment states explicitly that in thanks for the 3rd word Kaczyński will offer Holownia the seat of President. Although Holowna's declarations say something different, most frequently the opposite, but in the comments that are everywhere full, the eventual and conclusive argument is always "I don't believe him."
First, The holovnia of its own Catholicism speaks clearly due to the fact that as a Catholic activist and publicist it was known. He even talked about it – nevertheless comic it sounded – performing as a showman in "I Have Talent". On all occasion, he besides says that his spiritual views do not have and will have no influence on anything he does by holding state offices due to the fact that the state must be secular.
SecondIf the Hollow of Values, Identity and Program Pl 2050 derived from Christian tradition, he would have that right. Finally, the European People's organization is simply a liberal-conservative chapede organization and it is the PO that belongs to it, not the Pl 2050. Apart from the EPP, there is besides Forza Italia, but besides the Maltese National Party, which – this is interesting and worth mentioning in Poland, which does not know what is going on outside it – inactive in 2011 opposed the right to divorce, but already in 2017 supported the right to single-sex marriages, inactive originating in its politics from the doctrine of Roman Catholicism. However, the hoarding home does not build the thought of its own organization on Christian tradition. I'd say that's a shame.
Too bad, due to the fact that third political pluralism needs the Chadetic right as much as the strong secular left. Today, we should know that it is not the existence of the right hand that creates the problem, but its acquisition by authoritarian populists. The creation of a Chadetic, civilized alternate to the Law and Justice, capable of dragging votes in elections in addition, should be worth – and it is not. We reject Holovnia not for being a chadek – due to the fact that it is not – but due to suspicion of chadek tendencies. We do not even see that in this way we deprive ourselves of the chances of a civilised right in general (generally considering that either civilization, or Christian democracy, tertium non-datur) that it is not only castration of democracy (it is not about it, after all, but only that our horse should win), but besides a full isolation in clash with the authoritarian right.
Finally fourth and much more crucial – it turns out that religion is little characteristic of the Hołównia than its opponents. Pl 2050 has a documentary on a secular state and divorce with the church. At my taste, weak, but it's only my individual taste, and the paper of intent shows clearly. First of all, it does exist, and in the program for example PO it would not be easy to find something like this. The holovnia was usually the first and strongest in reactions to subsequent episodes of scandals involving bishops tolerating and concealing sexual crimes of priests-pedophiles. However, our bubble recognizes this as a marketing mimitry, knowing well, possibly from inspirations of the Holy Spirit, that in the hr of Judgment, the Holownia will uncover the “real face” (this quote from very many comments) and will sale us to bishops and Kaczyński in exchange for the already mentioned presidency, or simply by conviction. All this nonsense is said in a situation where we do not gotta justice the another politicians "on faith", due to the fact that this can be done easy on the basis of long and unfortunately rich experiences. They are besides swarming with present – that for the thousandth time I will callback standing ovation for the Border Guard, voting about courts, the past of talks about Nycz Tower, the destiny of LGBT+ community postulates, the Istanbul Convention, the Charter of Fundamental Rights, religion and sexual education in schools – I cannot decide where to halt this litany, I can only assure you that it is incomparably longer than the list of Holnia's sins I know. religion in secular faithfulness to the state of the remaining politicians is stronger than it was with those apostles who, unlike unfaithful Thomas, did not gotta contact wounds and learn tangible testimonies—because not only without evidence but besides persists against it. It's impressive.
It is ironic that we are talking about the betrayal of Holown precisely due to his vote against the written draft of the SN Act. Who betrayed you and what exactly? This issue requires a broader comment, due to the fact that the communicative of the completely incomprehensible, overpowering opposition quantifiers is much longer and wider. The hoarding home is not holy in any way, long to tell what his people were doing in the Agreement for the Lawfulness, which has de facto fallen—but making a black people out of it, and it seems to be a mockery about it.
The opposition has so far demonstrated solidarity, e.g. by applauding criminals from the Border defender – and the reason was then and always is the same as in the case of KPO money and the SN Act. In all of these situations, it is all about not falling under the propaganda of the people of Pisa. The opinion of the opposition parties' own supporters does not should be taken into account. There was a solidarity vote at 1 time for increases for parliamentarians to then equally jointly retreat from this embarrassing blunder, and it was the only case that I could remember in which opposition politicians wanted to consider the opinion of their own voters. In any another situation, this hard-core electorate forgives everything—and demands designation of "political realities". We admit them – we yet have the politicians we have, who else would we vote for? It can so be recalled in this context that 1 of the politicians transferred to Pl 2050 as part of this ugly policy of purchasing personnel and for this reason suspected deficiency of an perfect spine is Róża Thun – 1 of six Euro-Parliamentarians of the PO, who, contrary to organization discipline, voted in favour of launching an EU infringement procedure against Poland in connection with the violation of the basic rules of the regulation of law and who almost flew out of the party. So who has a spine and what precisely is it?
And yet 5 – choral criticism of Holowna is unfortunately, as in the choir, orchestrated. Condemnation is not as unanimous as mainstream opposition media. To halt charges of treason ruining the anticipation of a future agreement, appealed CODE president, Kuba Karyś. “Therefore, before you press enter,” he wrote, “after riding personally after any of the [leaders], hold your finger and consider what you propose in return?” In spite of what Kary thinks, I know this proposal, and it is written. The KO is to run separately and win alone. The farm and another ‘malcontents’ – under the threshold. This understood the strategy – simple and, of course, suicidal, but how purifying it is for souls and minds tired of the unnecessary complexity of matters! Carys is right, therefore, erstwhile he concludes the conclusion solemnly, though the conclusion itself, and patos are absolutely justified: “In about 10 months, the most crucial elections since 1989. Remember that we are all liable for their outcome. Let's not screw this up.” Well, I study obediently, Mr President, that we will of course screw up. As always. You know that, Cuba, I know that.
Just like the mainstream would want looks at the case of Agnieszka Holland – and it is impossible to think about the seduction of chimonism. He writes: “No 1 but Outsider Pawel Kasprzak has presented any revolutionary and stimulating motivation and imagination of voters of the thought of curing the Polish state and its destroyed institutions, civic participation in the construction of electoral lists, so that voters have a full chance to vote on their favorites.”
Yeah, that's right. These 2 uncrazy, sober eyes of Agnieszka Holland and Kuba Karysia are absent in the audible public opinion, and that is the consequence of this directing in politics, which I know like a bad shell. Knowing her, I know that there are no precisely predestined intentions and no political orders coming from political leaders to loyal editors. More often, the other is true. It is spontaneous, thoughtless shortsightedness, and its origin is the basic and understandable premise: "Ours must be supported always and absolutely." Well, that's what we do. Stupid, but how smart are you to support the stupid things they do?
No common list
Fashion for the common list of opposition has always had something very unusual in it. First of all, it should be amazing that the very abrupt discovery of its advantages – apparent arithmetically and psychologically, and yet long years invisible. To the degree that in 2019, erstwhile the defeat of the opposition was absolutely certain even with the lead in the votes, there were no media reports of endorsements converted into seats in the Sejm and the apparent informing accounts: “pull up, idiots, we will lose even if we get more”. Journalists can be accused of even specified a large indolence, but otherwise the mediocre organization staffmen cannot be accused of it. What's the matter, but they can calculate the places in the districts. They have fewer another skills, but they always have one.
Black prophecies were said alone by only Polish citizens, to widespread mischief, in the crumbs of washed up on their heads from everywhere, due to the fact that they were beating them, criticizing the Law and Justices, etc. The Casandric visions came actual triple:
- We lost;
- We lost despite the advantage in the voices;
- No 1 has accounted for the liable – about the same, inactive as arrogant men inactive manage “real politics,” telling us to wait until in the privacy of their inaccessible cabinets “the political decisions will ripen”. Well, they're increasing up now. The cesspool's gone. There won't be a common list.
Why the abrupt sobriety? This time we truly want to win – and that's the reason? That's very naive thinking. While inactive "the window of chance was inactive open", Donald Tusk repeated his appeals, set further terms and moved them, and the public was presented with polls in which voters of all opposition parties advocated the request of common letters erstwhile they circulated letters of support for this thought (I signed them in good religion and initiated them myself) – then no 1 peculiarly believed that the common list truly always was to be issued. Among the party's activists, nobody wanted it – besides in the PO itself, although it was with her politicians about the common list that could at least be talked about.
As far as we could, we have checked the PO's appeals, repeatedly volunteering for talks. no of our letters received any answers, our phones PO politicians systematically and ostentatiously ‘drop’, which would most likely simply humiliate and indeed humiliate us if we only cared about this kind of court description of politicians. There are more crucial things than us and more crucial things. Therefore, we have besides learned in “other courts” whether the proposals for a common list have taken any concrete form and whether even the discussions on the “Senatic Pact” are moving forward, on which we agree. Everything we know and from the media, and from the bullet holes, indicates that no specifics have always appeared and that all this dialog is purely PR. Jarosław Kurski writes todaythat on the common list Pl 2050 could number on 41 taking places. It is simply a bit of a pity, by the way, that, by sanctioning the "takers' seats", the paper called the election agrees that the seats in the parliament should be decided by staff meetings of leaders alternatively than by the choice and voice of the people – but I know besides well how fewer are those whose cabinet fairs hinder anything and who care about the credibility of politics. Not many are, yes, but there are some. I collected their voices back in the day, and there were 15% of them. This is not the case, therefore, that the public negligence about even the appearance of democracy in the current war situation is not entirely consistent with democratic principles and e.g. with the civic election mission – this could be discussed long and this is yet a "private" issue of the editorial board – the point is that it is besides strategically unwise. And at the same time, the Kurski remarks are not entirely true. How does he know about 41 seats? erstwhile I checked myself – there was no specified offer.
Donald Tusk made his appeals so he simply could be a certain effect. It's purely PR. Partners from another parties put problem – to agree to the talks, to accept the fixation of the dominance of the PO and to deepen it, and in the case of Szymon Holownia most likely besides conviction to death his own project, the main point of which is the alternate to the PO with almost identical ideological and programming identity. The Hołownia accepting the offer of up to 41 parliamentary chairs would end its independent political life, as concluded by the Polish Barbara Nowacka Initiative (who remembers it today?), or somewhat better remembered Modern. The refusal to speak, on the another hand, means condemning Holown’s “bloated ego” and its marginalisation. present we are witnessing this phenomenon. We should know that, for months now, calls for a common list - without the formulation of simple conditions for fair integration - have served this very purpose: not any common list, therefore, but the ruthless grilling of those to whom the Public Appeals of the PO leader addressed, and which the grilled people rightly considered an ultimatum.
I do not know whether the consequence of this game will be a disaster and the 3rd word of the Law and Justice, although this is the way it is going, and between fairy tales it is possible to put together a joint list of talk about the constitutional majority – with all the consequences that will be fabulous no longer.
Partial partitionism is simply a systemic trap of feudalism, not ego leaders and cynicism of organization soldiers
Vladimir Czarzasty appealed to everyone with a "heart on the left" for a common, strong list of the left. He knows he's not gonna take off from KO and he's actually afraid of landing under the threshold. It's a bit of a fucking illustration anecdote.
I was at the Convent of the organization Together, where fresh Presidents were elected – Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandberg. erstwhile delegation of the fresh Left: Czarzasty, Biedron, Gawkowski. Everyone complimented the left's parliamentary cooperation – satisfied as if it could boast of the effects. It's git, it's expected to go on, although women are dying without a chance of abortion saving lives, in schools Czarnek simply installs fascism, Kaczyński entertains the audience with unleavened tales of blunt xenophob, and left-wing messengers may hesitate at most, not knowing whether they should stand or sit erstwhile friends and colleagues with opposition applaud reward exports and death of people on the Belarusian border. At the convention there were clear announcements of a joint start of the left-wing block, which meant alternatively without uncertainty that the fresh Left would not search agreement with the KO. The remnants of my illusions yet dispelled the Black One, though he did not say anything directly. He jumped out on phase in the company of Biedron with a grin implant pressed in the face and a cheerful speech of the phase conferancer said that it was not together that he invented a patent on co-chairs with a sexual parity, due to the fact that Nowa Lewica "has had 2 co-chairs for a long time" – and here he gave the co-chair to Biedron, to whom he thus assigned the function of woman. Well, Włodek's gone.
As I recall, specified jokes about Biedron have late been made by writers. For a moment, I froze, knowing the Sumaite's rule in these matters. I was waiting for a buzz in the hall, but nothing like that happened – alternatively there was a joyful applause. Then I realized that the left was aiming at a comfortable, intimate club where it's good, even if you gotta perceive to a akin quality coupon mots. Fashion for political adulthood came to Together a while ago.
I'm not talking about it to take down the left. It is simply a common phenomenon in "adult politics". There are no saints here, and that is what I draw attention to in the Facebook lashes, avenging the Holovnia, his ego and his treacherous plans. This illness affects everyone. It's impossible to find boys to beat, the rumacus of any knight is not white. Therefore, the increase can be spared and it must be done by trying to realize the mechanics instead.
Each court, whether it is the left or the Simonites, let alone the strongest PO, will push for a separate start until it has any seats in perspective. By nature, they will be counted on by the people in these courts most influential. Yes, they can get more on the common list of places, but they won't have the value they have in the feudal system. The Partitional ruler is handing out lenna in the form of just taking places. The key parliamentarian then sits in the strict leadership of the party, ties with the ruler, supporting him and perpetuating his own position at court. Not the flax itself is crucial – although it is besides crucial – but it is the place in the hierarchy it gives. In a loose coalition, and especially in 1 where another ruler hands out lenna, and the court creates out of its own, there is no specified advantage. That settles it. The mechanics applies to everyone active in a fake conversation about a common list. Nobody wants it – besides courting the dominant chief, and possibly even they.
The common list is simply a nightmare of organization courtiers and most princes but for the largest of them, though it unnecessarily complicates the task and weakens the loyal constituency of the court formed in a flaxy system. He turns his career paths upside down – not only the politicians they know, but besides the only ones who can even imagine. The ideas of the kind of primaries are completely unacceptable, but even Borowski's purely algorithmic thought to mark the places on the common list for each organization with numbers set in advance – in politics 1 cannot live without the hope that 1 can always put a word to Donald, Włodek, Simon...
He is among the politicians of many people besides decent to be offended by this image, it is true. possibly most of them are like this. But it is crucial to know that those who whisper in the ear of their chiefs decide to choose the way before the elections. This whispering ends only erstwhile fiction becomes any taking place. Only it's besides late. Unfortunately, it's besides late not only for the losing party, but besides for us, for whoever we vote for.
While fucking equally with the grass of everyone but the strongest Tuski – what he is doing is active and giving the speech at most 20% of the bulb of the toughest PO electorate and has full media support in it – this group condemns itself to loneliness. The barrier is thirty, thirty, fewer percent, possibly even forty, if they are disappointed by the love of the current PiS voters. That's not enough.
So, please, let's not talk about ego leaders, let's talk seriously, realize the mechanism.
When You Don't Know What To Do
Morally enhanced they like this quote from Bartoszewski. Everyone should like him. You should be decent. due to the fact that the common list will not be, due to the fact that it prevents both the interests of organization cameras and the dominant opinion of hard-headed voters, there is truly no telling what to do. Well, erstwhile it comes to grilling the Hoard, I want to say what it means for me to be decent. I should say, if I dare to run, right?
If most of the opposition camp, which I believe I have the right to belong to over the years, wishes to exclude Simon Holovnia, his organization or anyone due to suspicions of spiritual motivation, I will protest against it as I protested against any another discrimination. due to the fact that this is discrimination – and even more. It is simply a belief that the laws, yes, belong to us, but not to those who are incorrect and culturally foreign. The rights to the existence of a organization of Christian pedigree will be defended with the same determination as I defended the rights to our presence in front of Kaczyński on this grotesque ladder. I have repeatedly told no Holovnia, but to the darkest Smolensk crowd, that the rights I defend besides belong to them and I will defend them besides erstwhile they are in number and whoever, my majority, will besides want to deprive them of these rights. I meant it. I would like to repeat this today, in an election campaign, knowing that I am speaking against the majority again, which is not worth it at all - and I am saying this as a civic activist whose goal is not our power but respect for everyone in democracy.
As a candidate in the election, however, I should do anything to just win – and I will do anything. This, in turn, requires honesty towards those who decide to support me with a voice. If we're going to win everybody, we gotta have Holovnia, Left, PO votes. For this reason too, honesty requires a protest against calculations calculated for the sole triumph of 1 of the strongest opposition parties, due to the fact that it means not only cutting out the others, but besides the threat of losing the deciding vote of at least 15%.
And there's something else to say as a candidate. About a secular state where the Holrows all claim false declarations. Even if the opposition, despite the waste of a powerful margin of votes, manages to take power from Kaczyński, the fresh parliamentary majority will be fragile. Times will be hard. We are facing an economical crisis, an energy crisis, another migration shock. The same considerations that the opposition is ordering present to take care of PR so powerfully as to support another monster ultimate Court Act, will besides let each another know erstwhile and give the same effect. The same fear will trigger the same opinions about political suicide. Indeed, it is vital to have a strong religion to believe that under these conditions the fresh majority will fulfill the demands of a secular state. I'm running, among another things, to prevent this postulate from being swept under the carpet. An avenging group of hard voters of the PO present on Holovnia surely does not know this – if any organization is an ally of efforts for a secular state, it is not the PO, but Pl 2050, as long as only 1 of its politicians can pass the electoral threshold despite today's grilling. It'll be beautiful much the same about abortion. As usual, so this time alliances will be decided here not by the views and not by the programme allegiance of organization politicians, but by the usual business. Bet? Decentness requires informing present of all the morally heightened in screwing up Catholic agents and traitors.
It is not easy to defend either Holownia or fresh Left – since they choose feudal laws of their own parties and lead us all to disaster. It cannot be explained to them that the extraordinaryness of these choices is multiple, which besides causes them not to number themselves in any way. Most of their supporters – as we have seen many times in the elections – will support the strongest 1 (so possibly 40, possibly 50 alternatively of 20% of the vote) or will be discouraged at home. I can't aid – the only way I can see myself, and unfortunately the only 1 that has been proposed at all are the competitive open primaries between parties, which appear a common list just as the average elections appear from a parliament in which not only Kosiniak-Kamish sits with Claudia Jacira, but in which even a coalition in specified exotic diversity becomes possible. The parties do not want this – and present it is evident that they will not, until their politicians can whisper to the leaders who draw their power from these whispers, in the hope of taking the place. If they want to play so, they most likely full deserve the inevitable destiny under the electoral threshold. But they don't deserve their constituents. All I can offer voters is to make committees. Let the leaders know you won't support a suicide course. request a democratic selection of a common list. halt playing the tails. Chances aren't large today. But it's worth it. So you gotta try.
