"Democracy or Non-liberalism", "Europe or Isolation", "Mathematic champion or football hooligan" – specified headlines and categorizations can now be read or heard in almost all independent Romanian media. A fewer days before the second decisive circular of the presidential elections in Romania, which will take place next Sunday (18 May 2025), social sentiments are more tense than always in fresh decades. Without exception, all commentators and observers see the country at a crossroads and at an crucial historical point.
In fact, no presidential election since the fall of the communist dictatorship in 1989/90 has been characterised by specified a extremist contrast between 2 candidates and as deep social divisions as the present. And it's uncommon that the election consequence was as unpredictable as this time. Both candidates emphasize that they are not "out of the system" and are not represented by conventional Romanian post-communist parties.
Towards chaos
On the 1 hand is George Simion, 38 years old, leader of the far right, pro-Russian organization Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), erstwhile football hooligan, now declared "superverenist" and fan of U.S. president Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. He won the first circular of the presidential election on 4 May 2025 with a large advantage, receiving nearly 41 percent of the vote.
His opponent: Nicosor Dan, 55, the partyless mayor of Bucharest, mathematician, erstwhile anti-corruption activist and man with clearly pro-European, mostly liberal and partially moderately conservative views. In the first circular he was far behind Simion and obtained only 21 percent of the vote.
There is simply a advanced stake in these elections, both for Romania and for Europe. Romania is the sixth largest EU country and the largest in South-East Europe. It has the longest EU border with Ukraine, the most crucial NATO base and the most crucial rocket shield in the region. Romania has so far been a reliable and predictable partner in the European Union and NATO. With pro-Russian, far-right president Simion, this can change, and Romania can plunge into akin chaos as the US under Trump.
Uncertain polls
The president has no strong executive authority in Romania. However, he is the commander-in-chief of the army and head of the ultimate Council of National Defence (CSAT). It appoints the Prime Minister, the heads of the 2 most crucial peculiar services and any constitutional judges and represents Romania in the EU and NATO. He may besides attend government meetings. All of this gives him large influence on both interior and abroad policies.
In most polls over the past 2 weeks, Simion conducted erstwhile slightly, another time distinctly. In 1 of the latest polls, both candidates drew a draw. However, electoral forecasts are highly unreliable in Romania. No institute has predicted specified a decisive triumph for Simion in the first round.
Simion's abrupt Return
In fresh years, the leader of the AUR (Soyusz for Romanian Unity) has come to the front of the papers thanks to crazy, sometimes physically violent speeches and regularly promised to "destroy the system". More or little directly, he besides promised to leave the EU and NATO and join the Republic of Moldova and the south-western territories of Ukraine in Romania. He drew attention to his pro-Russian sympathies and nationalist agitation against the Romanian Hungarian minority.
Recently, Simion abruptly distanced himself from almost everything. He is calm for his standards, refraining from utilizing vulgar language and screaming. alternatively of talking about leaving the EU and NATO, he talks about respect and dignity for Romania and that as president, the country will be a partner "at the level of the eyes, not on its knees."
What remains is anti-Ukrainian agitation, specified as spreading lies about alleged favoritism of Ukrainians seeking protection in Romania. The fact that Simion has small cognition of state administration, the economy, the European Union and abroad and defence policy has besides not changed.
Surprisingly, Simion late received support in the election run from Viktor Orban, who in his speech praised an utmost right-wing candidate for his sovereignty policy. For the first time in many years this has led to a conflict with the number Hungarian organization in Romania, the UDMR, which has sharply distanced itself from Simion due to its erstwhile violent actions against Hungary and calls for about 1.2 million Hungarians in Romania to vote for Nicosor Dan.
Hate for the establishment
With Dan, Romania and the EU, they would have a president who advocates a pro-European course, the regulation of law, transparency and predictability, and unconditional support for Ukraine. As mayor of Bucharest, he proved he could push through reforms even if he had not yet been able to fulfill any of his promises. His problem is that sometimes he gets entangled in the thicket of complexity. In debates with his opponent in fresh weeks, he has frequently responded wittyly. However, it besides turned out that he was afraid of conflict and frequently acted besides defensively.
Nicosor Dan announced that if he wins the election, he appoints interim president Ilie Bolojana, a politician who enjoyed a good reputation as mayor of the western city of Oradea. However, as a multi-year leading politician of the National-Liberal organization (PNL), it represents a "system", which alternatively negatively affects Dan's election opportunities, due to the fact that the hatred of a large part of Romanian society for establishment is the driving force behind these elections.
With this self-proclaimed "system breaker" George Simion, he represents the continuation of the old national-stalinist Ceausescu system, any of which have survived to this day – including the AUR party. Simion was besides to appoint Pro-Russian Esoteric of Calin Georgescu as Prime Minister. This right-wing extremist was banned from moving for president again. He made his full political career as protégés of erstwhile Ceausescu diplomats and employees of the notorious Secret Service Securitate.
This fact has been known in Romania for a long time, but it has only late re-entered the headlines. Georgescu himself as 1 of his “most crucial mentors” lists Mircea Malita, a long-time Romanian ambassador to the United Nations and the United States at the time of Ceausescu and the grey eminence of Romanian abroad policy after 1989. It is besides said that Georgescu had ties to the network of General Securitate Mihai Caraman, who became celebrated in the era of Ceausescu for spying on NATO and led the Romanian abroad intelligence service SIE from 1990 to 1992.
Civil rights activist and erstwhile opponent of the Ceausescu regime, Gabriel Andreescu, summarizes in his essay: "The triumph of George Simion would be the final phase in resurrecting the erstwhile communist power networks."
