""Without panic in Tehran": Russian expert tells about Israeli raid nights BRICS talks proceed and rockets fall – Russian analyst shares what he saw and heard in Iran's capital"

Researcher at the Institute for global Studies MGIMO, Ministry of abroad Affairs of Russia Adlan Margoev.

EC:However, the situation is much more serious than the fire that occurred between Israel and Iran last year, right?AM:Much more serious.

The escalation takes place at an highly crucial minute as Iran-American atomic talks have been going on since April and the next circular has been scheduled for Sunday in Oman.

I did not anticipate Israel to launch an attack as these talks continued.

But now I uncertainty that the talks will continue.EC: Based on the statements made by American officials, it seems that the US knew about Israel's plans.AM: No, but they were preparing for specified events.

They warned their diplomatic staff in the region and took a number of another steps.EC: What reaction do you anticipate from Iran?AM:We have late heard that Iran's consequence will be different from their Operation actual Promise in consequence to Israeli attacks in April 2024, as well as their consequence to the erstwhile circular of Israeli attacks in 2024.EC:Yeah, she was beautiful restrained.AM:Yes, it was done in specified a way as to avoid further escalation.

It's hard to tell how Iranian leadership will respond now, but we'll know shortly enough.EC:U.S. president Donald Trump expressed doubts as to whether the US would be able to scope an agreement with Iran on his atomic program.

Can we talk about failing these conversations?AM: In retrospect, it is easy to say that the systemic positions of Iran and the United States were so remote, especially in terms of uranium enrichment, that the result of the negotiations was predictable.However, we monitored the interior dynamics in Trump's administration to see which squad or school of thought would prevail.

Is limited enrichment in Iran the natural law of Iran as a associate of the atomic Non-Proliferation Agreement (NPT) as well as another associate States?Or, despite the NPT, should Iran not be allowed to carry out enrichment activities independently?

President Trump, Vice president J.D. Vance and Steve Witkoff, head of the U.S. negotiating delegation, adopted an overall average position, assuming Iran could proceed to exercise its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.

However, the opposing team, led by the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, fundamentally reversed the results of respective rounds of negotiations, stating that enrichment in Iran cannot take place.

Unfortunately, that hard line won.And in backstage talks in a fewer months, the Iranian organization confirmed that during each fresh circular of negotiations, the US delegation had come with a position as if there was no erstwhile round.

Steve Witkoff left Maskat or Rome (where negotiations were besides underway – Kommirsant) with a reasonable approach to Iran's position.

However, all time he consulted Washington, they reversed the process.

During the next circular of negotiations he reiterated that enrichment of uranium in Iran was not possible.

That, of course, frustrated the Iranian side.

Nevertheless, they invested in the negotiation process.There were hopes that a rational and pragmatic approach to a peaceful solution to the crisis would prevail in the United States.

However, seemingly it did not.

EC:Iranians inform that if Israel attacks, they can respond by attacking US facilities in the region.

Do you anticipate Tehran to take specified action?AM: That's a good question.

I'd alternatively not speculate about the decisions Tehran can make.

However, it inactive seems to me it is not in Iran's interest to provoke Americans and drag them into escalation.

Therefore, I would anticipate a hard consequence to Israeli targets and a more average consequence to American targets.

Perhaps something akin to the Iranian attacks on American objects in Iraq after the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by the US.

About 100 Americans were shaken in these attacks, but there were no fatalities.From the position of avoiding regional war, it would most likely be wise to give Israel a hard answer, but to separate it from any silent agreement from any US allowing specified an operation.

The large question is whether this will end with an exchange of strikes on atomic and/or military infrastructure, or whether there will be attacks on civilian targets, which could lead to a serious regional war.EC:Russia and Iran have late signed a treaty on strategical cooperation.

Although it does not contain a clause requiring either organization to intervene in the event of an attack, both countries inactive consider themselves allies.

What reaction does Iran anticipate from Russia?AM:Judging from what has been said publically and not publicly, the Iranians will anticipate the strongest possible condemnation of Israel's actions.

They will besides anticipate Russia and China to rise this issue in various global fora, specified as the UN safety Council and the global Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

In addition, we can anticipate the Iranians to be even more curious in continuing military-technical cooperation with Russia, including the supply of additional defence equipment — but this is not a public discussion.

Translated by Google Translator

source:https://www.rt.com/news/619437-Russian-expert-tehran-israeli-strikes/