The first circular of the presidential election is behind us. Elections that brought quite a few surprises. Elections, which can be a turning point erstwhile it comes to Polish politics. We're in for overtime.
As expected, it will include Rafał Trzaskowski representing the Civic Coalition, the ruling centre-left camp, and Karol Nawrocki representing the opposition party, the Law and Justice, and the Greater United Right.
These elections brought quite a few surprises. Let's take a look at what happened erstwhile it comes to attendance and results of individual candidates. Turnout was higher than in 2020. This is not a large change in percentage, but it shows that going below a certain barrier erstwhile it comes to our activity is alternatively the past, something. 1 has to anticipate that, whether presidential elections or parliamentary elections, about 2 thirds of Poles can be mobilised. This turnout was of course varied – the highest in large urban agglomerations, weaker in smaller administrative units.
In the context of the results themselves, as expected, the combined support for both candidates of the 2 largest formations amounted to just over 60%. This is simply a situation where support for the Law and Justice Office has been the lowest since the beginning of the operation of the leading duopol parties in Poland, i.e. since 2005. This is simply a kind of breakthrough, and it's marked by the fact that there's most likely a deeper redevelopment of the political scene and on the right and on the left.
As far as the right side is concerned, no surprises. Support for Karol Nawrocki closed somewhat below 30 percent. 1 can say that the electorate of Law and Justice is permanent, regardless of what Jarosław Kaczyński's organization offers in individual or program. On the another hand, what happened outside of Law and Justice on the right is an absolute novum if we sum up the results. Very good consequence of Sławomir Mentzen – little than 15 percent, large consequence of Grzegorz Braun – above 6 percent and little than 1 percent support for Marek Jakubiak. This means that around 22 percent of voters who voted in the first circular of the vote gave him up as candidates for the hard right.
If we sum up this consequence with support for Karol Nawrocki, then we are doing about 53-54 percent. The hard right gained importantly over a twelve months, which separate us from the last election of 15 October 2023. So we have a situation that the support for the hard right is small lower than the support for Law and Justice. I think that this is simply a signal that the time of dominance of the Law and Justice as the leading political formation passes irretrievably, and that it must accept that if it wishes to rule, to co-rule in rule Poland, then it must appeal to cooperation, the request to interact with another formations clearly on the right side of the political scene.
There's a change.
As far as another candidates are concerned, Simon Holovnia is about to be politically crushed. His consequence is simply a disaster. That's little than 5 percent. Let me remind you that in the 2020 election, Holovnia received 14 percent of support. This is simply a major regression. This is simply a major crisis for the 3rd Road and Formation PL 2050. This is besides a signal that there will be a lot going on in the political center.
What happened on the left is besides interesting. Apart from the fact that Rafał Trzaskowski finished with the lowest score since the beginning of the run – he competed with polls of 40%, and yet checked in at 31 percent, giving any of his support to another left-wing candidates.
The question is, what is the Polish left? Sticked to Tusk as an appetizer, as Magdalena Biejat sees? Or is it more ideal, programming, going across divisions? It must be recognised that in addition to Grzegorz Braun and Sławomir Mentzen, Adrian Zandberg is the biggest winner of the first circular of voting.
As for the loser, it is definitely Simon Holovnia.
What could happen in the second circular of voting? About 20 million Poles will go to urn, who will have a very transparent division: black, white. On the 1 hand, Rafał Trzaskowski representing the ruling centre of the left with strong progressive views, on the another hand Karol Nawrocki, representing more conservative, national values.
Who will yet win this election? The answer is very difficult. If we follow the statements of the voters whose candidates dropped out after the first round, we're tied. The difference of support between candidates can be half, possibly 1 percent point.
It's besides early to judge.
I remind you that in 2020 Andrzej Duda won with Rafał Trzaskowski a difference of about 400 1000 votes. Now the difference may be even smaller. For the next 2 weeks we will observe a fierce rivalry between Nawrocki and Trzaskowski. They will want to attract as many candidates as possible who have fallen off in the first round. They will want to make specified flows that will benefit them, and at the same time they will want to influence any of the voters of their competitor to keep them at home, so that by not voting they will increase the chance of 1 or the another candidate.
It's besides early to decide what happens on June 1. The calculations I made just before gathering you show that Karol Nawrocki seems to be in a somewhat better position. However, this advantage would be insignificant. Divine judgments, judgments of Polish courts and elections of Polish voters are unexplored.
