According to the paper "Die Welt", NATO states must increase their defence spending and intensify their efforts to defend themselves. But would Europe be able to cope on its own if Donald Trump turned his back on her? "Die Welt" recalls that as early as 2019 the American president was 1 step distant from leaving NATO.
"Now he has returned to his position – and seems even little predictable for allies than during his first term," we read.
"Europeans relied on the US for decades. Washington's conventional and atomic weapons provided the essential safety in a transatlantic alliance based on common military, economic, political and cultural ties. It's all falling apart now. Trump combines safety guarantees with defence spending, behaves ambivalently in the war in Ukraine, talks about the annexation of Canada or Greenland. At the same time, the U.S. government is investigating whether US troops stationed in Europe should be relocated," says "Die Welt".
NATO will survive, but does it evolve?
Is there so any realistic script in which Europe could take over the function of the US in the average term? – wonders the diary in a joint task with the editorial office "Politico". Philip Bednarczyk, manager of the Warsaw office Geman Marschall Fund believes the main question should not be whether NATO will survive, but whether it is evolving.
Joschka Fischer, erstwhile head of German diplomacy, says that Europe should not do anything that could velocity up the withdrawal of the US from the European continent. "We must prepare ourselves, reasoning in 2 ways: 1 with America, the another with Europe itself," Fischer admits.
Reflecting on the fresh leading countries in Europe, journalists point to the Contact Group on Ukraine, a coordinating body for Kiev, in which the US renounced leadership. Now the group is led by Germany and Britain. Another example is the "coalition of the willing", led by Britain and France, to supply Ukraine with safety guarantees in the event of a ceasefire.
Important function of Poland
According to Joschki Fischer, the decisive factors will be: France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland. "Die Welt" emphasises that this opinion is shared by most of the interviewors of both editorials. For the erstwhile Deputy Minister of defence of France, Jean-Louis Thieriot, it will be crucial to go beyond the Weimar Triangle, consisting of Germany, France and Poland and to extend it to Britain.
Among the advantages of specified a solution, the French politician mentions the fact that "Paris and London are atomic powers, Berlin is an economical heavyweight, and Warsaw perfectly understands the threat posed by Russia, as well as having the largest army in Europe (after Turkey) and NATO's highest defence budget as a percent of GDP," writes "Die Welt". However, as we read, each of these countries can besides be a weak link.
Problems include the mediocre state of public finances in France and the budgetary force under which the UK Prime Minister is under. In the case of Germany there are doubts about the political readiness of Chancellor Friedrich Merz to presume the function of leader – we read. As Carlo Masala adds, a military expert at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich: "Instead of setting an agenda, Berlin remains dependent on the initiative of others – especially London and Paris".
Nawrocki's triumph weakens the Polish government
As for "traditionally pro-American Poland", it could build a bridge to the Trump administration. However, journalists reserve that Karol Nawrocki's triumph in the presidential election weakened Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
"His government will most likely be in a permanent crisis to the 2027 parliamentary election, which can be reflected in a lower profile in abroad policy. The Polish deficit besides grows rapidly due to higher defence spending" – we read.
Another problem is the issue of political stableness – in Germany, France and the UK, right-wing nationalist parties are gaining support, which consider Russia's threat to be low and sceptical towards European cooperation. As Gesine Weber of the German Marshall Fund of the United States says, "it is crucial that Europeans do not become paralyzed for fear that future governments in France or Britain will be little active in defence alliances. It is crucial that they do not commit suicide for fear of death.".
