German military aid to Ukraine: a fresh model of support?

On 14 July, during a visit to Washington, D.C., the German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) confirmed his willingness to acquisition 2 Patriot air defence systems by the RFN. They would most likely replace the 2 batteries that Germany will hand over to Ukraine. Previously, the head of the Ukrainian Group in the national Ministry of Defence, General Christian Freuding reported that at the end of July the first unmanned long-range systems financed by Germany and produced by the Ukrainian arms manufacture would hit the front. In the following months their number is to be ‘three-digit’. It is not certain which systems are involved: the media informed about the signing of an agreement by the national Republic of Germany and Ukraine to finance more than 500 long-range Antonov-196. At the end of June, during a visit to Kiev, accompanied by representatives of the German arms industry, abroad Minister Johann Wadephul (CDU) declared to increase assistance and to extend military cooperation with Ukraine, in which Germany would supply it with elements for the production and maintenance of unmanned impact systems and ballistic missiles and maneuvering missiles with a scope of up to 2.5 1000 km.

Already in May – in the face of the continued attacks by Russia and the uncertainty surrounding American support – Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced his readiness to intensify military aid to Kiev. Due to the limited production capacity of the German and European arms industry, Berlin appears to be implementing a fresh model of support, based on US purchasing and arms production (the alleged Danish model).

Comment

• Scope of the German Government Military support for Ukraine makes the West Germany formally the second largest aid donor after the US. Berlin declares that her The value from 24 February 2022 together with "secured" measures for the following years amounts to EUR 38 billion. According to information from the authorities there, by 31 March this year the full amount of German military aid to Ukraine amounted to EUR 15 billion. In 2024 alone, the RFN allocated EUR 7.1 billion for this purpose, and according to the draft budget for 2025 it plans to allocate EUR 8.3 billion (see Figure in the Annex). To date, Berlin has qualified as military aid to Ukraine the value of equipment contracted for the German armed forces in place of weapons declared and transferred to Kiev from the resources of the Bundeswehr and commercial orders filed (although not necessarily implemented) by the Ukrainian side to German arms companies and financed by the German national Republic of Germany (see IPCC). Germany increases military support for Ukraine). As of April this year, detailed data on the types of arms supplied shall not be made public. Ukraine and their values. This is the wake of Chancellor Merz's adoption of a policy of "strategic ambiguity", which assumes that they are classified (see IP/10/277). Friedrich Merz's abroad policy – beginning protocol).
• A fresh model of German aid, consisting in the acquisition of military weapons and equipment (UiSW) in the U.S. and the transportation of components for production in Ukraine, can contribute to the increased efficiency of the German military effort support Kiev. The so-far German grants consist of 3 elements: an older UiSW transferred from the resources of the Bundeswehr, a fresh one, ordered in the German arms industry, and a modernised one, already withdrawn from service. The crucial declared value of the aid does not translate into a large amount of UiSW delivered due to the advanced cost ordered for Ukraine in a crucial number of IRIS-T SL short-range air defence batteries (transferred 11 out of 24 declared systems) and the Patriot medium-range (three full batteries and 4 launchers) along with the undisclosed number of PAC-2 GEM-T and PAC-3 CRI missiles. An additional acquisition of 2 batteries for Kiev would make Berlin liable for delivering as much as half of all Ukrainian Patriot systems (before donations to Kiev, Germany owned 12 Patriot batteries, and in 2024 decided to acquisition another eight, although it was not known erstwhile they would be delivered). Despite media declarations and letters of intent regarding the beginning of factories of the German arms manufacture (mainly Rheinmetall) in Ukraine, there is inactive no evidence of the launch of production there.
• German manufacture and armed forces are technologically and conceptually delayed in the production and usage of unmanned impact systems. Most likely, thanks to the co-financing of their production in Ukraine, Germany will be given the chance to benefit from a rich Ukrainian experience in this area. Berlin offers Kiev crucial amounts of unmanned systems, most of which are comparatively tiny reconnaissance cameras: about 2.6 1000 pieces have already been announced by April 17th, and another 3.6 1000 pieces have been declared. Only since the beginning of this year the RFN besides transmits shock drones to Ukraine. The announced transportation of specified unmanned long-range systems is the consequence of an agreement from the end of May, on which Berlin and Kiev initiated a cooperation to make a number of means of demolition at further distances. The German manufacture is to supply Ukraine with components for the construction and maintenance of unmanned vehicles, as well as ballistic missiles and maneuvering missiles with a scope of up to 2.5 1000 km, to be produced in Ukraine.

ANNEX

Table 1. German declaration and transportation of key weapons categories (as of 17 April)

Table 2. German ringing supply aid

Chart. Planned financing structure of German aid toUkraine2025year(inmillion(EUR)

Source: Entwurf eines Gesetzes über die Festtellung des Bundeshaushaltsplans für das Haushaltsjahr 2025, Bundestag, 26.06.2025, Bundestag.de, p. 38.