Ukrainians fight on 2 fronts, military with Russia and diplomatic with the US. Europe needs to increase its support, but besides prepare for the worst
We are increasingly approaching an open conflict with Russia. The front line in east Ukraine has not changed much in the last 2 years. This gave us a deceptive sense of stopping the danger of war, inactive somewhere comparatively far from the borders of Poland and another countries in the east of the EU. But that's over.
The ace in Vladimir Putin's sleeve is the fact that as an authoritarian ruler he does not care about cadence. He doesn't gotta search re-election. And as a chess player and political tacticist, it does not gotta have any strategy of reaching the goal – rebuilding the Russian empire. All he has to do is look at the mistakes of his opponents that he pays to respond to.
Although he most likely didn't even anticipate Donald Trump to put force on Ukraine so rapidly and so violently, to call Volodymyr Zelenski a "dictator" and to prosecute a ceasefire on Russian terms.
We inactive don't know how much negotiating bluff there is in the American volt, and how much real Russia's willingness to quit on geopolitical gains in another parts of the world. On the another hand, we see that Trump, the ruthless patodeveloper of the fresh planet disorder, and Putin, the self-proclaimed neo-Soviet Tsar, want to share influences in the world. The first under knife goes Ukraine.
Time is very limited.
If the Americans halt military aid to Ukraine, this 1 will lose the war. This is the consensus among Polish and German experts, whom I have listened to during many seminars in fresh months. Europe as a full will not be able to replace the contribution from overseas in the short term. After all, Europe is not all on fire for help.
Governments in each EU country conflict with their own interior political dynamics. Poles will not elect a president until June. There's a run going on until then. So there is no reason to number on bold decisions at the time. Politicians in Warsaw know that moods towards Ukraine and Ukrainians have changed for 3 years of conflict. The first hurraoptimism has long gone. In clear pro-Ukrainian declarations, more can be lost present than profit.
Similar social sentiments prevail in Germany. In addition, fear of atomic conflict is much stronger. In the coming months we will observe the laborious formation of a fresh ruling coalition. Even if the chadecs and the social democrats get along at an express rate, the trial will take place at least by the end of April. By then, the US and Russia can already agree on the future of Ukraine.
So now's not the time to soap your eyes. The situation is difficult. With the support of the Ukrainians so far, they were able to defend their territories and inflict severe losses on the enemy. Without that support, he could lose. The failure can be understood in many ways: it will be the political destabilisation of the country if Kiev is forced to sign an unfavourable peace agreement. In an highly unfavourable scenario, Russia can take control of all Ukraine, for example by installing a fully-dependent president and government.
We request more soldiers.
Last year, the Bundeswehry Territorial Command announced the creation of an "Operationsplan Deutschland". In the document, authors draw up a framework for civilian defence behaviour in the event of war. On this basis, German Army experts supply training for businesses. For example, they are delicate to expanding the fleet of their truck drivers. These will be the weight of gold in the event of armed conflict. akin themes and practices are included in the civilian Protection and civilian Defence Act, which came into force in Poland with the fresh year.
These examples indicate that the rulers in both countries, though not flaunting it, prepare plans in the event of a direct war confrontation with Russia. akin signals come from Sweden, Finland and the Baltic States. It remains to be hoped that Poland, and Germany as neighbours who, in the event of specified a conflict, will cooperate with each another as closely as possible (although due to logistics), as well as another NATO allies, already coordinate these plans.
We do not yet know whether, how long and how many American soldiers will stay on our continent. But their withdrawal is already being signaled. We'll gotta replace them. In this regard, I am amazed that it was German politicians and the media, even during the time of Olaf Scholz's rule, that more frequently than in Poland they discussed the subject of restoring the work to carry out military service. Politicians in Warsaw inactive answer that specified talks are besides early. Are you sure?
I will mention again to the compatibility that exists among Polish and German safety experts. There is simply a consensus in Berlin and Warsaw that Russia needs about 5 years to rebuild military possible in order to be able to attack another country. So let us combine this position and what is happening around Ukraine. Let's learn from it. And let's start now.
You want peace, prepare for war
Kiev is presently fighting on 2 fronts: military with Russia and diplomatic with the US. Europe must help. A secondary issue is which format is better suited for this. Weimar Triangle, bilateral Polish-German relations, cooperation of the Nordic countries, meetings in a group of major or smaller countries. With a clear goal to aid Ukraine, now all format and each gathering is important.
For this moment, there is besides a need, and perhaps, above all, for those actions that could affect Trump's administration. Polish politicians are already lobbying behind Ukraine in Washington. I anticipate that the fresh authorities in Berlin will besides show clear support.
The stakes are high, although different for individual countries. The Ukrainian people are fighting for survival. For Poland, as well as the full region of Central and east Europe, we have worked out in the last 35 years to preserve everything that is hard, honest work. The Union as a full is about peace and the anticipation of further development. This is not the time to hesitate. Saving Ukraine and fighting Russian imperialism is our absolute priority.
