According to the results, the Civic Coalition is supported by 30.4% of respondents, an increase of 1.8 percent points compared to the mid-April survey. As a result, the formation returned to first place in the ranking.
Law and Justice, which had previously triumphed in the first place, fell to the second position with a score of 27.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percent points. 3rd place was placed by the Confederacy, which gained 14.4% of support, with a tiny increase of 0.5 points.
Support for the 3rd Road, which gained 8.8%, besides went up, is an increase of 0.7 percent points. Left saw a decrease of 1.1 percent points to 6.8 percent. The Together organization would not exceed the electoral threshold, scoring 3.9 percent. In turn, 1% of respondents declared their willingness to vote for another groups and 7.4% stay undecided.
Distribution of seats in the Sejm
The results of the survey would translate into the following division of seats in the Sejm, as calculated by Prof. Jarosław Flis of the Jagiellonian University:
Civil Coalition - 174 mandates,
Law and Justice – 154 mandates,
Confederation – 72 mandates,
Third Road – 36 tickets,
Left – 23 seats,
German number – 1 mandate.
Thus, the current ruling coalition (KO, 3rd Road and Left) could number on a full of 233 mandates, allowing it to form a government.
Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk of the University of Warsaw in an interview with the WP emphasizes that "we live in a unchangeable organization strategy and any fluctuations, even during the campaign, are incapable to bring about a fundamental change".
– It seems that the candidate of the Civic Platform Rafał Trzaskowski simply participated frequently in various debates, meetings and forces occupied a large media space. This could have been a PO, he said.
In the case of PiS, the expert indicates that the organization feels the effects of Karol Nawrocki's campaign. – It may be assumed that any of the voters of this formation are not utilized to get out of the position in which the Law and Justice Office is located. Voters frequently needed strong stimulants to go to the elections at all, and since the organization is not in power now, it is hard to encourage it to vote – he stressed.
On the another hand, the 3rd Road, although in this poll it crossed the electoral threshold, is inactive facing serious challenges. Prof. Chwedoruk recalls that before the 2023 election, part of the PO electorate voted "tactically" for the 3rd Road to guarantee its presence in the Sejm.
The United Surveys survey was conducted for the WP on 28-29 April 2025 by CATI (phone interviews) and CAWI (web survey) methods on a typical example of 1,000 adult Poles.
