A fresh EU taxation for 8 million Poles. Accounts higher by up to PLN 40,000!

Already in 2027 millions of Polish families will face a financial earthquake. The European Union is introducing an ETS2 system, a fresh climate taxation that will cover CO2 emissions from home heating and transport. For about 8 million Poles, this means an avalanche increase in accounts, which can scope tens of thousands of zlotys in the next decade. The government is struggling to hold the reform, but Brussels remains firm. The time to prepare is dramatically limited, and the scale of the upcoming increases for many may prove disastrous.

What is ETS2 and who precisely is the fresh taxation to be charged?

The ETS2 is an extension of the existing EU Emissions Trading strategy (EU ETS), which has so far mainly included large manufacture and energy. From 2027, CO2 charges will besides cover 2 key sectors for households: Construction (heating) and road transport. In practice, this means that each tonne of CO2 emitted by coal, gas, fuel oil or motor fuels will be charged an additional charge.

Although formally the taxation will be paid by fuel suppliers, its cost will be full passed on to final customers – that is, to all of us. The scale of the problem in Poland is huge. According to estimates, the fresh strategy will be straight covered around 7.8 million households. This group includes 4.6 million families heating houses with coal and 3.2 million utilizing natural gas. This is more than half of all Polish families, which puts our country at the forefront of the countries most affected by the reform.

Record costs for Polish families. circumstantial calculations shock

The analysis of experts, including Wanda Buk and Marcin Izdebski, leaves no illusions as to the financial consequences of ETS2. Polish families must prepare for drastic burdens, which will importantly reduce their home budgets. The scale of increases depends on the heat origin used.

Households heating their homes with natural gas will gotta bear additional costs of PLN 6,338 between 2027 and 2030. By 2035 the full amount of additional fees may increase to dizzying 24 018 PLN. This is an average of nearly PLN 3000 more per year for the heating itself.

Even worse, there will be families inactive utilizing coal. For them, the projected additional costs will be PLN 10,311 by 2030, and by 2035 this sum can scope astronomical value PLN 39,074. This means an average yearly burden exceeding PLN 4000, which for many may be an insurmountable barrier.

The residents of the blocks will pay. Hidden costs in rent

Many people surviving in blocks with central heating may mistakenly think that the problem does not concern them. Unfortunately, that's not true. Although residents of multi-family buildings will not be direct contributors to ETS2 as they do not buy fuel themselves, they will inactive feel the effects of the improvement in their portfolios.

System heat suppliers, namely heat and power plants, are already subject to ETS1. The introduction of the ETS2 and the overall force on decarbonisation will force them to invest costlyly and modernise. All these costs will be included in the price of the heat supplied and systematically transferred to final customers. The residents of the blocks can so anticipate crucial increases in rents and heating charges, even if they do not formally pay the "climate tax".

The government fights for hold and the EU offers billions for transformation

The Polish government, aware of the social and economical consequences, is intensively lobbying in Brussels to postpone the implementation of the ETS2. Negotiators argue that the Polish economy, inactive heavy dependent on coal, needs more time to adapt. The abrupt introduction of specified advanced charges threatens to increase energy poorness and social unrest.

As part of mitigating the effects of the reform, the European Union has allocated funds from the Social Climate Fund to Poland. Preliminary estimates say the amount approximately PLN 153 billion. This money is intended to support the poorest households, to fund the thermomodernisation of buildings and to invest in renewable energy sources. However, experts inform that even specified a large amount may not be adequate to full compensate for the scale of the upcoming increases.

Domino effect on the economy and the threat of mass poverty

The introduction of ETS2 will trigger a wave of increases that will flow across the economy as a whole. The increase in fuel prices is automatically higher transport costs, which will translate into more costly products on store shelves. They will increase courier services, public transport tickets and prices of virtually all goods. Experts estimation that ETS2 can increase overall inflation by an additional 2-3 percent points.

The Polish Chamber of Economics of Coal Vendors warns that the strategy will drastically deepen the problem of energy poverty. Those with low incomes surviving in old, unwarmed homes are peculiarly at risk. For many of them, the request to pay a fewer 1000 PLN per year for heating will mean a dramatic choice between heat and food. little than 2 years left to start the strategy – it is critically small time to prepare millions of Poles for a financial shock that can change their lives for years.