Already before the NATO summit in The Hague, it is clear that the Alliance's ambitious goals to increase defence spending will require a considerable effort from Germany. Although Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that he would supply all the essential financial resources to make the Bundeswehr the strongest conventional army in Europe.
However, NATO's fresh objectives are severe: associate States are to allocate 5 percent of their economical output to defence. It was 2 percent before, and that's it. Germany is presently spending on defence.
Trump: Europeans must do more
It was the US president Donald Trump who first presented the mark of 5 percent. First of all, as a request for NATO's European allies: Trump threatened to refuse their support if they continued to pay as small as they had so far. In 2024, the US incurred 2 thirds of the defence expenditure of all NATO associate States.
Trump's request met scepticism in many European countries: it was argued that 5 percent was far besides much. In 2024, any countries were inactive far from reaching the goal of 2 percent. A fewer days before the summit NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte announced that NATO as a full would accomplish the goal of 2 percent by 2025.
However, this is only a transitional phase on the way to even higher spending: A fresh guideline is to be announced at the summit in The Hague. The German government besides supports the expression proposed by Rutte: 3.5 percent of gross home product (GDP) is to be spent on defensive expenditure and 1.5 percent on infrastructure that may besides be applicable to the defence. These may be railway lines, bridges or ports. A full of 5 percent is expected to be reached by 2032.
Almost half the defence budget?
For Germany, with their strong economy, it would be a gigantic sum, estimated at EUR 225 billion per year. The full national budget last year was EUR 476 billion.
Chancellor Merz stresses that further improvement of military capabilities is more crucial than percentages. However, not everyone in the coalition Social Democrats of the SPD is convinced of this: "We consider it irrational to set the percent of military spending based on GDP," writes a group of left-wing SPDs in their manifesto on ensuring peace in Europe. This is "no justification for safety policy". Part of the opposition is besides harshly critical.
In the face of the threat from Russia, the Bundeswehr experts see good reasons for investing more money in armed forces that have been neglected for decades. “It is not about pleasing the Americans or filling out the books of defence manufacture procurements, but it is in the national interest of Germany to defend,” says Aylin Matlé of the German Council of abroad Relations (DGAP) in an interview with DW. The German government must explain why this is necessary. Nevertheless, 5 percent of economical production is in her opinion a "crazy amount".
Minister of Defence: this will be a large challenge
In addition to finance, the NATO Summit will besides focus on military capabilities. Additional troops are needed in Europe. On the 1 hand, as a signal of force towards Russia, and on the other, due to US president Donald Trump's announcement to reduce US presence in Europe.
What does that mean for the Bundeswehr? An additional 50,000 to 60,000 soldiers were needed, explained Defence Minister Boris Pistorius in Brussels in early June. At that meeting, NATO defence ministers have already identified fresh goals for the Alliance in terms of defence capabilities. Details are secret, but Pistorius announced that the fresh large formations would be formed and full equipped. 5 to 7 fresh brigades are discussed, each with 5,000 soldiers, tanks, artillery and related logistics.
Back to the draft? possibly later.
How the Bundeswehr intends to recruit tens of thousands of additional professional soldiers in the coming years remains open for now. Currently, the Bundeswehra has about 182,000 soldiers and is actively recruiting fresh personnel. – presently we have good personnel data, good recruitment data and a good number of candidates. This is encouraging – explained the Ministry of Defence spokesperson in early June. In fresh years, the number of soldiers has decreased despite all recruitment efforts.
Mandatory military service, which was suspended in 2011, could be an effective way of recruiting staff. However, it will not be reactivated for the time being. Coalition partners, social democrats and CDU/CSU conservatives agreed on this. "We make a fresh attractive military service that initially relies on voluntary service," says the coalition agreement. There's no word for conscription.
The barracks and instructors are missing.
Due to NATO's increasing demands, the CDU and CSU parties are increasingly proceeding voices to prepare for the restoration of mandatory military service. However, Chancellor Merz inhibits: for the moment, the coalition agreement remains in force. “We will request to look closely at whether attractive programs and voluntary service are sufficient. If voluntary programmes are not enough, we will shortly gotta talk about additional steps," he said.
Will the model of volunteer military service last? safety expert Aylin Matlé assumes that "it will be rejected very quickly". Especially since the force on Germany may emergence again if the US actually withdraws troops from Europe.
The Trump administration has already announced that it intends to do so. Details are expected after the NATO summit. Matlé assumes that then the cards can be dealt again. “Then Europeans, including Germany, will be asked how they want to compensate,” he says. But even if an even larger gap arises in the presence of troops in Europe, it is improbable that Germany will be able to supply so many soldiers in 1 effort over the next fewer years, he adds.
