The United States is forced to reduce military presence in various parts of the globe (more than 860 military bases in more than 80 countries worldwide), especially in Europe. It is known from the leaks that it is about reducing their numbers in Europe, starting with 20%.
So far it has been imperative to believe that the United States and the West dominate the world, and that this power is not threatened. It's been like this for decades. But now it turns out there are changes. An equal opponent appeared, who – increasing in strength – began to isolate the West confined to 50 states and trying to successfully dominate the remaining 150 countries of the global South. However, we are inactive in a phase of alternatively peaceful evolution, although the first local conflicts, specified as Ukraine, appear at the interface of these 2 worlds.
The Western, traditionally "first world", organizes 2 strength centers: the US, which are trying to consolidate their "near foreign" (Canada, Greenland and Central America) and Europe forced by circumstances to integrate internally.
The opponent, the “second world”, previously dominated by 3 formally equivalent centres of force – China, India and Russia – is besides subject to interior transformations. The most powerful China with conventional courtesy treat their partners in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and effort not to show them their advantage. India accepts these common directions of action that suit them, specified as the plan of a fresh UN organization or the removal of the dominance of the US economy in the global economy and the dominance of the US dollar in planet trade turnover, but does not recognise China's leadership. It is different with Russia, which has become profoundly dependent on China – political, economical and military. For the time being, China limits military aid to dual-purpose items (such as trucks, construction machinery or electronic parts), but allows the state to supply unlimited supplies of weapons and ammunition to Russia, which defuses its military supplies and has shifted most of the military production to supply the Russian army. She besides sent a military contingent to the front in Ukraine. It is clear that in the event of the reactivation of the war on the Korean Peninsula, these losses would be rapidly supplemented by China.
Russia's sole effort to dominate Ukraine in February 2022 can be treated as a way to improve Russia's position in Chinese-Russian tandem. According to Prof. Zbigniew Brzeziński's conclusion in his “Big Chessboard”, Russia will not be able to return to the planet superpower without Ukraine. The defeat in Ukraine has thwarted these cremel dreams and means to reconcile with China's hegemony.
There are splits in the block of the West. While the US considers China to be an existential opponent, Europe wants to play its own function and benefit from trade and economical cooperation as long as possible. The U.S. is making a revolution, dramatically trying to reduce industrial dependence on China. Europe is declaring to accomplish the same by negotiating fresh treaties.
The U.S., constating China's increasing military advantage in key areas, sharply wants to remove this gap by strengthening its far east flank, shifting additional forces and resources there. In addition to expanding the defence budget to an astronomical level of over $1 billion, it makes transfers and savings in the Pentagon budget and various types of armed forces, it is besides forced to reduce military presence in various parts of the globe (more than 860 military bases in more than 80 countries worldwide), including in Europe in particular. It is known from the leaks that it is about reducing their numbers in Europe, starting with 20%. In the position of expanding the European military potential, this is to cover more than half of the quota. The point is to gain European defence independence, leaving in practice only the American atomic umbrella. These statements by American politicians (Europeans are more restrained and discreet) give emergence to the frustration and fear of European societies.
This is revealed by investigation by the Polish public. According to a fresh SW investigation survey for Rzeczpospolita, most Poles (50.8%) do not believe in helping the US in the event of an attack on our country. The results show that only 25.7% of respondents trust that the US would fulfil its military obligations under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, and 23.4% of respondents have no opinion on this. Similarly, it is with religion in the success of the U.S. plan at the end of the war in Ukraine. According to SW Research, only 24.1% of respondents believed that president Trump would win in ending the war in 2025, while 58.7% did not, and 17.1% of respondents had no opinion on the matter. Poles are very skeptical. The question remains how to warrant our safety in this time of geopolitical breakthrough.
Hazard scale
The current military possible of the European NATO states corresponds to the current possible of Russia. Russia engages about 40% of its armed forces in the war in Ukraine. The remainder of her business is in different directions. It is in the process of building fresh potentials in 2 fresh military districts in Finland and the Baltic States. Her army is expected to grow to over 1.5 million soldiers, and the manufacture is now producing additional equipment. Russia's economy has gone into war mode. From the first years of the war, it has seen a immense increase in arms production, which has become a driver of dynamic economical growth. Over the years of preparation for the war, the reserves have not yet exhausted, and it is estimated that they will last at most for about 2 years of funding. Until then, the Kremlin must decide either to enter into temporary peace or to extend its war effort. The conclusion of temporary peace, due to the fact that Russia's strategical objectives – rebuilding the empire – will inactive be to be achieved. However, they will request close coordination with China as they proceed to wage war with Taiwan by military means. To block Taiwan (and/or invade the island) according to analysts think tank RAND will be militaryly ready from 2027. From Russia's point of view, this situation will draw the Americans distant from Europe and facilitate the invasion of the Baltic States and Poland.
Unfortunately, from the point of view of policies, the Kremlin is in a happy position. The large power and chauvinist policy has large public support, the society has barely felt the effects of the war, it is disciplined and typically Russian humility would lift even drastic limitations and deterioration of life rate. Trade and economical cooperation has been redirected to China and another BRICS countries. Russia has reliable and powerful friends and allies, but it is incapable to wage war on its own with all NATO. He won't be able to in 10 years. It is different in the case of an attack only on a Europe without US support. Russia can take effective offensive action. According to intentions revealed by the head of SWR (civil intelligence) Narishkina in Minsk may strike the Baltic States and Poland before a week ago, occupy the essential territories, “to dig” and wait for NATO's acceptance of territorial achievements on a akin basis as the current acceptance of annexation of parts of Ukraine. For this to be more digestible, Russia does not gotta regulation straight from the Kremlin, it is adequate for its puppet promosque rule. This is why the Kremlin is pushing for fresh elections in Ukraine, which unfortunately the US has accepted.
The intent of the war is not only Ukraine, but the reconstruction of the empire in form left by Stalin. This is due to intelligence obtained before the invasion of Ukraine by the CIA, and utilized publically by president Biden and another advanced representatives of the U.S. government to effort to halt the Russian invasion. These data were highly detailed and came from the highest circles of Russian power and the highest command of the army. It didn't work. The Kremlin has calculated the hazard and concluded that revealing intentions does not harm the plans, due to the fact that everything is prepared, and the chance to easy absorb Ukraine may not happen again. Zbigniew Brzeziński already pointed out in the "Big Chessboard" that Russia would not become a superpower until it regained Ukraine with its natural wealth, agriculture and industry, but above all a well-educated and popular society, which, in her opinion, is simply a Russian nation. As it turned out, the calculations were wrong, and the war has been going on for 3 years. The war device has already been launched according to war plans covering the full state system. To put it figuratively – with large powers it is like with transatlantics – a fast change of course is impossible, and erstwhile the direction chosen can only be corrected, and it takes quite a few time and causes unforeseen problems. Russia's war device does not stop, it is moving with expanding momentum. Its usage only requires an indication to the enemy society to accept the fresh war.
A fresh Enemy
From the minute it turned out that Ukraine was giving effective resistance, and there is no chance that the military way to defeat it and absorb it, began to sale to the Russian public a communicative about Russia fighting not Ukraine itself, but the full “collective West”. They even added nonsense about alleged NATO soldiers fighting the Russians at the front, especially Polish soldiers, thanks to which Ukraine gained allegedly part of the Kurski District.
Now they're going a step further. abroad Minister Sergey Lavrow said on 20 April that it is incomprehensible to the head how openly the European Union wants to revive the ideology of Nazism. Leadership in this process is among the leaders of the Brussels bureaucracy. Russia will not accept this and will make all effort to guarantee that this ideology "does not rise its head" that it is destroyed erstwhile and for all and that Europe returns to its values. He hopes that in European countries the number of people who do not want to "leave their roots and submit to bureaucracy, especially the openly Nazi taste". In the propaganda of Moscow, the Ukrainian government is referred to as Nazi, and the war with Ukraine is being waged in order to crush Nazism in Ukraine.
At the end of January 2024, Putin besides accused the Baltic states of "adopted Nazism". The American Institute for War Studies (ISW) believes that this is most likely a continuation of the Kremlin's efforts to prepare propaganda ground for future aggression against NATO members, especially against the Baltic States, as well as another NATO members under the pretext of defending persecuted Russians, as it was before the invasion of Ukraine. The ISW indicates that the Kremlin may besides want to prepare Russians for a possible, prolonged conflict with NATO in the future. Russian analysts rightly concluded that planet War III was not a threat, and that Western consequence would be average and conservative. Western societies will not let them to be pushed into a fresh war from the comfort and prosperity zone. Just as no 1 wanted to die for Kiev, no 1 would want to die for Riga or Suwałki. This was confirmed by the war in Ukraine. Western aid was dosed with a "drip" – just adequate to keep Ukraine from losing, but not able to defeat Russia. The NATO-Russia Act of 1997 was not even cancelled, although Russia brutally broke it.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield in February 2022, at an extraordinary safety Council gathering immediately after the invasion, revealed plans to rebuild the empire stolen by U.S. intelligence: “Putin claims the right to the territories of the full erstwhile Russian Empire as well as the USSR. This applies to all Ukraine. This concerns Finland (...), it concerns parts of Poland and Turkey. Putin challenges the full global order. In fact, Putin wants the planet to return to its time before the UN, until the empires regulation the world."
Already before the invasion in the ultimatum published by the Moscow MFA on 17 December 2021, on the drafts of 2 agreements with the US and NATO "about safety guarantees for Russia" requested a return to the grey safety region before 1997 in the area between the "old" NATO and Russia by withdrawing NATO troops and installations from the area of the fresh 9 members of the alliance and stopping NATO's expansion to post-Soviet states, especially Ukraine. Fulfilling Russian demands would mean further limiting the sovereignty of Poland and another recently adopted states beyond what constitutes the 1997 Treaty Act establishing Russia-NATO. The eventual was rejected by the United States and the remainder of NATO states, as a consequence Russia invaded Ukraine. After 3 years of war, Russia failed to defeat Ukraine, but succeeded in destroying the global order and overthrowing the "powers concert".
NATO's fresh strategical Concept
Putin demands much more from the United States – demands the restitution of the Stalinist sphere of influence in Europe and the de facto restoration of the geopolitical order of the russian Union. This is the declaration of war and the biggest challenge for NATO in history. All the more serious as NATO is exhausted by decades of weakening itself as a consequence of the post-cold war dividend. The European NATO States and Canada are as weak as always in history. To this end, the US must reduce its commitment to defending Europe due to its competition with China. It is so essential to respond to NATO, which must concern its full structure and policy. The NATO Constitution is the NATO strategical Concept, modified from time to time, depending on the needs and developments of the safety situation. All another planning and staff papers are brought down from her.
A NATO summit is scheduled to take place in The Hague on 24-26 June, which must be historic. There's no time for half-measures. NATO needs to step up at a large pace. From the first leaks, it is known that associate States request to increase the number of their armed forces at least twice as shortly as possible, e.g. the Bundeswehr from the present 182 000 to nearly 400,000. This involves investments in military infrastructure, the creation of fresh units, the acquisition of weapons, and certainly, due to the force of time, recommending the restoration of compulsory enlistment.
France, after years of forced autonomy, decided to return to a common atomic defence policy. There are discussions on how Europe's atomic defence will look in addition to the US atomic umbrella. There is talk about beginning the road to NATO's exit from the NATO-Russia Act of 1997, which would unlock Poland's receipt of atomic weapons under NATO atomic Sharing.
A program is needed to win the Cold War with Russia by imposing its fresh arms race, as NATO won the Cold War with the russian Union. It's all going to cost a lot, and the costs of many countries are scaring.
