The X flashed me interesting report prof. Piotr Szukalski from the Institute of Sociology of the University of Lodz. Demograf decided to analyse migrations inside the country with a simple measurement — he simply compared the number of people from 1990-1994 in a given territory in 2004 with the number of people in the same yearbooks in the territory 20 years later.
As we know, in Poland the statistic on interior and abroad migration are flawed, as many people neglect to complete the migration obligation. However, in this case, we can presume that the data illustrates the level of migration rather well — on the 1 hand, the natural life cycle (the acquisition of housing, the sending of children to kindergartens, etc.) more or little forces the registration of the actual place of residence, and on the another hand, during these 20 years the CSO conducted 2 censuses, which at least to any degree captured actual migrations.
Professor Szukalski only considered the 1990-94 yearbooks — let's take a step further and look at a small younger and a small older to see what the life cycle of a young Pole in the 21st century looks like.
So let's start with those who are just entering adulthood, which is the year 2000-2004. In 2004, they were tiny children and 20 years later most of them inactive live (or at least are checked in) with their parents. quite a few them changed their place of residence, but mostly in the relation of the city—>his suburb, so she was forced to do so by her parents alternatively than by herself. However, there are 5 cities where the number of inhabitants from these years has increased — without surprise, they are the largest academic centres in the country (Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław and Gdańsk) or region (Rzeszow).
The situation is changing dramatically in the next age group. Those born between 1995 and 1999, which is now respective years after college, begin to registry in large cities. On the plus side all cities of the voivodship outside Kielce and Gorzów Wielkopolski, and especially powerfully attract cities of the large five. The evidence holder is Wrocław, which thanks to the influx of young people from all over Silesia and confederate Wielkopolska is able to double the number of young inhabitants. In this age group we are besides beginning to announcement the first districts that are affected by dramatic depopulation, especially the outermost areas, with borders with Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.
But actual contrasts can only be seen in the next age group — the 1 studied by Prof. Szkalski. 30-34 years in Poland is simply a typical age of buying an flat or building a house, as well as (which is most likely powerfully related) the age of birth of the first or second child. This is besides the time of the first major promotions at work.
All of this, of course, is conducive to anchoring in any place and this place is primarily the agglomerations of the large five. In Warsaw, Krakow and Wroclaw, the number of young people even more than doubled. Apart from them and the capitals of voivodships are virtually individual islands of comparative demographic stabilisation: Bielsko-Biała, Leszno and Koszalin. Everywhere else we see the outflow of young people, who in any districts take the form of an exodus. In the Podlasie outside of the Bialystok and Suwałki agglomeration in each territory there are 25% or more of the people increasing up there. small better is in Warmian-Masurian or Lublin. There is at least 1 region in each state outside Lesser Poland, from which at least 1/4 young people disappeared.
Interestingly, in a somewhat older age group — those born in the late 1980s. — Migration to large cities was little powerful. Yes, the districts of east Poland have deserted almost as much as they do now, but already in the west of the country the drain was not so severe. The generation of the end of the demographic boom more frequently saw an chance for themselves in their home parts — their somewhat younger friends no longer.
However, these migrations are not only visible at national level. We can besides trace them to any degree within the cities themselves. The Central Statistical Office provides data on the number of inhabitants from the census in statistical areas. The statistical division is, by definition, a unit with a population of not more than 2,700 (approximately 1100) and no more than 999 housing units. So this is rather a tiny area that allows us to see changes within the urban areas.
Unfortunately, census data are only given in 10-year age groups (e.g. 20-29 years, 30-39 years, etc.) and not in five-years as maps above. After all, we can see on the maps changing with age the preferences of Poles about the place of residence.
Let's start with 20s. As we know, they concentrate in the largest cities — especially those of the large five, but not only. On the maps below, we can see that young Poles not only choose cities, but besides choose central districts of these cities. This can be seen peculiarly well in the Silesian and Łódź agglomerations, where housing prices are more affordable, so young people are not pushed into peripheral districts against their preferences.
But in the age group of 30 - year - olds, the situation is rather the other — people who start families and search larger apartments or homes are forced to settle further distant from the center, where prices per metre are lower. However, it is worth noting that these spilling out populations do not happen in the same strength in different cities. Wrocław and Poznań are spilling heavy (note: in the case of the suburb of Poznań, any areas cannot be straight compared, due to the fact that they were divided in the interscript period – I mark them with lines, but it is worth realizing that if the area had to be divided, it means that its population increased), somewhat little Warsaw, Tricity and Łódź, and the least Krakow.
Finally, among 40 - year - olds, the force on the suburbs does not weaken — and even more so, while the 3 - year - olds usually decision just outside the city, their somewhat older friends build or buy homes in the more and more suburbs.
Unfortunately, while for an average household a home with a garden actually can frequently be a better option than an flat in the city (especially that in Poland, housing is simply a fewer blocks, and under the city for the same price you can have 2x larger area), it is for society, local government units and the state (but besides for children of specified couples who will 1 day enter a teenage age), the suburbanisation balance is clearly negative. Especially in a country like Poland, where on the 1 hand The improvement of the suburb is completely chaoticAnd on the another hand, we face The large extinction, sooner or later it will end with the bankruptcy of municipalities, lowering the standard of surviving and damaging empty homes and apartments.
This entry was created by Patrons and Subscribers of utmost Cartography. By becoming 1 of them, you will have access to valuable articles hidden behind the paywall.
Only in fresh weeks we have written, among others, about how Polish dwellings are detached from those in the West, where Poles moved in 2024 and about tiny municipalities that be only to give jobs to local officials. In turn, we are presently working on, among others, a material describing what, specifically for the average person, means to depopulate Poland in the coming decades and whether the key to more children is to build single-family homes.
If you want to become an EC subscriber, you can buy an yearly subscription with a 50% discount utilizing the link below: https://www.kartografia-extremalna.pl/BF2025
PS. If you like to pay with BLIK or transfer, consider becoming our patron on Patronite.
