Is the dusk coming?

The coming years may be groundbreaking for the Polish political scene. Source: Gabriela Majka / Fenestra

Are we witnessing the end of the era? From all over the world, reports of disappointed voters and youths’ anger have been heard. The voters of the government coalition are disappointed by the slow pace of change. To the right of the PiS there is no longer one, but 2 forces capable of entering the Sejm in 2027. Tusk coalitions are fighting for political oxygen, and exotic scenarios are drawing on the horizon. The PO has already disappeared from the political map, but is it the same for the full political agreement of the 3rd Republic? What can replace a 20-year-old double?

It was expected to be a devastating defeat. The final end of the “coalition 15 October” task and any hope of political centre and left-wing power after 2027. The unexpected win of Karol Nawrocki in the presidential election caused shock and disbelief in the environment of Donald Tusk and his coalitions. All plans of the government, based on the strategy of waiting out the enemy Andrzej Duda in the hope of winning Rafał Trzaskowski, were destroyed. fresh speculations began to appear in the media about the instability of the government coalition, and even doubts about the government's endurance by the end of the term. Prime Minister Tusk himself was written for losses by many as a utilized and unheard politician, yet losing in the fight against president Kaczyński for the destiny of Poland.

A wasted opportunity?

But what is the situation in late 2025, little than 2 years before the next parliamentary election? The poll leader is the Citizens' Coalition. Despite the unfavorable president, the threats from the Russian Federation and the failure to fulfill most of the electoral promises are the Tusk Group with the top support of Polish voters. The October Unification Convention brought out banners of the PO, Modern and Polish Initiative, while confirming Tusk's leadership as the undisputed leader of the fresh party. Technically, 1 of the pillars of the COPIS duopoly disappeared, although it actually took a little utilized form.

The situation on the right side looks different. Support for Law and Justice is in the inheritance trend, although it sits in the Presidential Palace closely associated with the organization of president Nawrocka. The party's programming board to constitute a fresh beginning was overshadowed by the scandal associated with the sale of agricultural land in CPK investment areas under PiS. alternatively of a fresh beginning political discourse dominated a fresh scandal resembling all the alleged United Right pathologies.. The group is besides not helped by the voluntary exile of Zbigniew Ziobra to Budapest. Viktor Orban's Ziebra guest not only reminds voters regularly of the Justice Fund scandal. It besides throws the erstwhile ruling organization out of hand the right to accuse political opponents of acting on behalf of another states. The first months of the following year are to pass under the sign of a large organization tour of municipalities and districts. However, this is not a fresh play in the Kaczyński party, and there is presently nothing promising a diametric change in adverse trends.

The main problem of the second pillar of duopol is not the force of old and fresh scandals from the times of the United Right. The origin of the crisis is increasing competition on the right. A paradigm that has been in operation since 2007 that there can only be a wall to the right of the PiS, it has long since passed to the lame with the entry into the Confederate Parliament in 2019. Since this year's presidential election, however, the exiled from the Confederacy has been expanding for excessive extremism Grzegorz Braun. His Confederation of the Polish Crown regularly gains in polls the support that sits above the electoral threshold, sometimes as the 4th strength in the future Sejm. Anti-Semitism, anti-Ukrainianity and openness to Russian propaganda narratives make Braun the rising star of the far right. There are many indications that the fight for primacy on this political side of the scene can only begin.

Screenplays from Political fiction?

The Polish political scene seems to be at the threshold of unprecedented shuffling since 2005. The 2 voices so far seem to be lost in importance, especially among the youngest. The destiny of erstwhile hegemons may be decided by the smallest players. The Politologist, Prof. UAM Dr. Dorota Piontek believes that in the current arrangement no script can be excluded. “Involvement in politics is truly a derivative of emotion, and this emotion is in turn something that is hard to classify, measurement or predict, what they will look like,” comments the expert for us. An example of this is external events, specified as plans to end the war in Ukraine, as factors mostly independent of Polish politicians and affecting the emotions of voters in a hard to foretell way.

Is a common government of the Law and Justice, Confederation and Crown possible? According to Prof. Piontek, this anticipation cannot be completely excluded. – I think that here they will decide organization and individual interests, there will be no repeat of 2005, there will be no coalition specified as in the case of PiS, LPR and Self-defense – the expert states. As possible obstacles to cooperation on the right indicates a conflict for akin electorates, advanced age of president Kaczyński and different economical visions. erstwhile asked about possible cooperation between the PiS and the Crown of Braun Prof. Piontek answers: – This may sound cynical, but I do not exclude any solutions.

However, while the PiS is measured against the excess of strong partners on the right, the KO has the other problem. Although fresh Left maintains support in the polls above the electoral threshold, the same cannot be said about PSL and Poland 2050. – If I do not regulation out that individual could enter the coalition with Braun, why should I regulation out the anticipation of a Confederate coalition with KO? I do not exclude specified a coalition, but I do not presume that it is clear or obvious," says Prof. Piontek. The expert emphasizes that the Confederate is internally divided into 2 camps, of which the Libertarian Mentzen camp may in explanation be more open to this kind of cooperation than Bosaka's national environment, to which it is closer to the PiS.

– The PSL has performed miracles at urns so far, in the sense that even erstwhile it had bad ratings, it got to the Sejm. And almost always, as it turned out, he was besides a tongue at the weight – he notes a polytolist without writing the PSL at a loss. “There is still, as it turns out, a group of innovators who test emerging political forces on the Polish political market,” says Prof. Piontek. In her opinion, an efficient leader of Poland 2050 could manage this group, although the model of the Palikot, Modern and Kukiz 15 movement can besides do this a completely fresh work – considering the future of Poland 2050.

"I think that the fresh Left, if it acts reasonably and nothing dramatic happens there, will get a consequence allowing it to enter the Sejm," says the expert. On the another hand, the current electoral strategy of the left-wing opposition to the Tusk government, or the organization Together, the polytolo player evaluates negatively: – Counting that one more time Adrian Zandberg shines in any debate should be put between fairy tales, due to the fact that you never get the first impression more than erstwhile – says Prof. Piontek.

So what should be expected on the way to the 2027 elections? Above all, a large amount of uncertainty and many twists of action. It's only been 2 years. Today's trends can turn around. The biggest players are not able to win the final triumph yet. Among the smaller ones, we have both rising stars and severe patients. Only time will tell who Poles will choose in 2027.

Oskar KMAK