According to the results of the survey, 69 percent of the voters of Adrian Zandberg plan to vote for Rafał Trzaskowski. In turn, 19% of this group intend to support Karol Nawrocki. Undecided, although declaring to participate in the vote, there is 9.6% of 2.4% of respondents will not participate in the second circular or are inactive hesitant.
Sławomir Mentzen won 14.8 percent of the votes in the first round, taking 3rd place. How his supporters vote on June 1 may have a crucial impact on the final outcome.
The survey shows that 65.9 percent of Mentzen voters want to support Karol Nawrocki. 3.9% of respondents from this group pointed to Rafał Trzaskowski. 8.5% have not yet taken the decision, although it plans to vote, and 11.7% have declared no participation or no decision to vote.
Taking into account the flows of votes only from Mentzen and Zandberg voters, Trzaskowski can number on about 403,000 votes from the Confederate electorate and 657,000 votes from the Left Electorate Together, giving a full of about 7.2 million votes.
Karol Nawrocki can number on more support: 1.91 million votes from Mentzen voters and 180 1000 from Zandberg supporters, which increases his score to about 7.88 million. This means that his advantage over the candidate KO could scope around 675 1000 votes at this stage.
New poll. Who will bet Mentzen and Zandberg in the second round?
– This poll may be amazing even for politicians themselves, Mentzen and Zandberg, who would like to direct their choices to specified or another vote," she told Onet Prof. Agnieszka Kasińska-Metrics, a polytolologist and marketing expert and political image.
The expert notes that this is an interesting phenomenon in the case of voters Zandberg, where the majority want to bet on Trzaskowski. As Kasińska-Metryka pointed out, politicians Together challenge candidate KO "from 'libks' and treat as evil equal to the evil of PiS".
On the another hand, 2/3 of Sławomir Mentzen's supporters declare their willingness to vote for "extremely conservative Nawrocki, being a candidate of the statistic organization and to the ground that is part of the political system".
According to Prof. Kasinska-Metryka, young voters see Nawrocki as a candidate for "uncontaminated politics", and thus corresponding to their request for freshness and antisystemism. The expert points out that opposition to duopol is simply a dominant feature in young voters.
– In fact, they don't care whether individual is more to the right or to the left, as long as it's new, fresh," the polytolist concluded.
The UCE investigation survey commissioned by Onetu was conducted on 19–20 May 2025. They were implemented by the CAWI method on a nationwide example of 1011 adult Poles aged 18 to 80. Of these, 871 people declared their participation in the first circular of presidential elections.
