Prof. Antoni Dudek says directly: "I think that a fresh Prime Minister should stand other the fresh President. As of June, I have said that this should happen now as part of this government reconstruction. In my opinion, this is the last chance of a coalition to rebuild a certain social confidence.
Prof. Dudek: Sikorski would effort to breathe fresh energy into the government
We're talking the day after the government's reconstruction. 1 of the main changes was the promotion of Radosław Sikorski to Deputy Prime Minister, which exacerbated speculation that he could become head of government in the future and besides vice-president of the PO.
– First of all, it is simply a politician who has not yet been Prime Minister. Secondly, he surely has a certain personality. Sometimes it is besides strong, and any of his statements, whether his behaviour was questionable, but it does not change the fact that in the sense of charisma and leadership personality in the surroundings of Donald Tusk there is no 1 comparable to Sikorski – says Prof. Dudek.
Is it realistic that before 2027 he could head the government?
Donald Tusk would gotta agree to this, due to the fact that it's truly his decision. If, on the another hand, this coalition is to last 2 years of dense war with president Nawrocki and the PiS, who, immediately after his swearing in, will start demanding an early parliamentary election, I think that there should be a fresh Prime Minister. And of those who are on the horizon at the moment, Sikorski seems to be the most serious candidacy – he analyses in conversation with the subject.
Sam asks if Sikorski could handle the position. - We don't know that. All we know is he truly wanted to be a presidential candidate. He failed, erstwhile again. But I think the function of the Prime Minister would besides be the culmination of his political career. He'd effort to breathe fresh energy into this government. What Tusk is besides trying to do, only that he has already tried – the political scientist comments.
Dr. Materska-Sosnowska: Tusk is not 1 of the people who gives up and leaves
"Tusk's exchange on Sikorski is simply a subject that stimulates emotions and divides our environment. What do you think?" "They are proceeding that Sikorski is to replace Tusk in the Prime Minister's seat", "Sikorski as Prime Minister?" – these are just a fewer entries from X in fresh days. specified suggestions besides appeared in the media.
How unofficially determined Tusk has plans for Sikorski and prepares Plan B. "In the Kuluaras, even the script in which he would take the lead of the government is mentioned," we read.
– For today, I would say that this is premature speculation. Tusk is not 1 of the people who gives up and leaves – he responds to these speculations Dr. Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political scientist from the University of Warsaw.
However, he believes that the decision with Sikorski as Deputy Prime Minister is good.
– This is putting a wedge in the Presidential Palace. Showing you don't give up. That we don't step aside and "we don't break." We are dealing with political changes related to radicalisation. And Sikorski is the answer to that. I'm reading it as a reinforcement, not just a party. This is strengthening a more decisive policy, including a abroad one, which is at a very hard moment. It's a very good decision – he estimates.
Is the position of head of government for Sikorski a real scenario? Under what circumstances could he prove himself? And possibly when? The answers are not simple and unambiguous.
Prof. Chwedoruk: Real script, but subject to risk
“Yes, of course, I can imagine specified a scenario,” says the Politologist, Prof. UW, Rafał Chwedoruk.
Firstly – as he explains – due to the fact that the full political discourse in Poland moved to the right and in fact presidential elections were held in the space between the PiS and the Confederacy, and Rafał Trzaskowski lost, among another things, due to the fact that his staff knew besides late where the centre was located.
– Secondly, events related to the future of Europe and another crucial abroad matters are taking place. Thirdly, Donald Tusk must someway keep his leadership in the PO, and Radosław Sikorski – as a man formerly associated with the Law and Justice Department – owes his political support to Tusk. The strength of things Tusk besides needs revitalization – the political scientist comments.
He so believes that the script is real, but with tremendous risk.
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– To any degree it would be surprising. First due to the fact that Sikorski is simply a 60+ politician. And the 60+ cake among voters has long been cut into widely known pieces. Real revolutions take place among the youngest. And it is their attitudes that can decide – he points out.
A Sikorski among the youngest voters late lost.
Sikorski may besides be a risk. And besides stories related to his non-political résumé, through which he can be a very easy mark for the right. According to a political scientist, easier than Donald Tusk, who is criticized mainly for his rule.
Besides, they would both be over 60 years old: – Then it would be very easy to exposure the character of Nawrocki and in the generational dimension, and the way of life. And they would most likely invent different fresh politicians in the kind of Szydło, Duda and Morawiecki to contrast with Sikorski.
– Hence the promotion of Sikorski to Deputy Prime Minister I interpret as a typical test for Donald Tusk – says prof. Chwedoruk.
He points out that Tusk frequently tests various legislative or individual ideas in this way: – He does it through a leak or symbolic nomination. He watches how the public will accept this, how the opponents will react, and in this case whether the candidate himself will bear the burden of fresh responsibility. This test was about investigating whether Radosław Sikorski could take the position of Prime Minister at the right time.
When could Sikorski become Prime Minister? "I think there are 2 moments like this."
What would gotta happen to a script like this?
– The improvement in government ratings would have completely crossed it off. If conflicts between the PiS and the Confederacy were to escalate and the optimism on the ruling side came back, why would Tusk then be dispossessed of power? – says Prof. Chwedoruk.
– But what would favour Sikorski is the deepening of the problems of the government and the strengthening of the Confederacy in the polls. The global situation would besides matter. For example, the end of the war in Ukraine. Then any right -wing populists may simply lose fuel. It is hard for me to imagine that present Sikorski could become Prime Minister in a situation where the Polish public's discontent with Polish politics towards Ukraine will be burdened with it – she thinks.
We ask erstwhile we could possibly anticipate this.
– I think there are 2 moments like this. The first is November, December this year, if it is very bad with the government. And the second is next year. possibly spring, summer. So that in the autumn period the government will enter full formed with the fresh president of the Council of Ministers. And a heavy rejuvenated lineup, says prof. Chwedoruk.
The question is, how can Donald Tusk even behave? Would he be willing to step down if what?
Professor Chwedoruk imagines specified a situation. He recalls that Jarosław Kaczyński erstwhile did so and retained only the position of the organization president.
– But he's the most crucial person. And it only appears publically erstwhile it is necessary. It is besides a bit so with Vladimir Czarzasty, who is not a frontman either, but no 1 has any uncertainty that he is the 1 handing out cards on the Left," he says.
– possibly Donald Tusk has a small no choice in a contemporary culture targeting young people. A 60-year-old politician, even if to this day "harat into a gable", can usage youth slang, as erstwhile announcing the reconstruction of the government, erstwhile at the beginning of the speech he spoke about getting around. This does not mean that he will be treated in specified categories by the youngest – says Prof. Chwedoruk.
"In my opinion, Tusk promoted Sikorski and waits until November for developments"
Could Sikorski possibly be a lifeline for the current government? Let us remind you of the applause he collected for his speeches at the UN for being able to address Putin's people powerfully and late for his engagement in the Rafał Trzaskowski campaign. He besides late crashed a bank in a trust poll.
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– I don't know if this wheel will work. But you can see that this arrangement is sinking. And that Donald Tusk, even though he gave an excellent, motivational speech, is no longer convincing. He's already a utilized politician. He did not consider that after returning to politics, this consumption process would run much faster. Especially since December 2023, he imposed this coalition with his tremendous dominance. And now there has been a reaction after the defeat of Trzaskowski," says prof. Antoni Dudek.
According to him, the fresh Prime Minister is now practically impossible. He believes that Blacksmiths with Kosiniak-Kamish and Holovnia would gotta get along sooner, which is not real.
– They'd gotta come to Tusk and say, "Donald, thank you, but now we want you to elect a fresh prime minister." erstwhile they gave him specified an ultimatium in June, possibly now there would be a fresh Prime Minister as part of this reconstruction. But it didn't. And now everything is in any kind of suspension until November. I think everyone is waiting until November, what will happen – he comments.
Perhaps Tusk will quit power under force from time and quotes.
– In my opinion, he has done reconstructions for the time being, promoted Sikorski and is waiting until November for developments. Due to the change in the position of talker of the Sejm in November there will be another chance to change the government. And possibly then he will change his head – says Prof. Dudek.
He believes that Tusk will want to know how president Nawrocki will behave at this time.
– It is unclear what precisely the president will take the tactics. Will he be willing to trade with the government a bill for the bill, or go to a full war in a much tougher expression than Duda did. And both scenarios can be considered likely, due to the fact that for now the signals from Nawrocki's surroundings are ambiguous. We just gotta wait. possibly Tusk does not completely exclude specified a scenario, but gives himself more time – he says.
– The problem is that this coalition is getting little and little of that time due to the fact that it may fall in the quotations so low that no one, including Sikorski, will be able to rebuild it – he warns.
"In a moment, everything can change. And everything can turn around"
Of course, it's besides early for all scenarios. If Sikorski's promotion was actually a test, then all the more time to justice what he brought today.
Prof. Chwedoruk felt that everything could change in a moment, including the planet economy. And in a minute we can function in a completely different reality.
For example, she believes that a possible candidate could be Barbara Nowacka.
– But most likely the failure of Rafał Trzaskowski caused Barbara Nowack not to become a deputy prime minister. That doesn't mean that erstwhile the polls are changed, it can't turn around,” says the political scientist.
