On 16 August, Belarusian Gen. Andrei Łukjanowicz assured on STV that there are no threats at the western border and the exchange of information with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia is ongoing. This is simply a signal to Warsaw, but not evidence of Minsk's return. For Poland, the safety of the border and opposition to the Russian game are at stake.
The signal from Minsk sounds mild, but you gotta look at the map
The Belarusian commander of the Air Force General Andrei Łukjanowicz appeared on 16 August on state tv STV and spoke about the deficiency of threats at the western border and the exchange of information on flights with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. According to Virtual Poland, Paweł Kazanecki, a political scientist who has been active in Belarus for years, sees this as a motion towards Warsaw, not a real change in the course of the regime.
And that's the crucial thing. Poland cannot respond to Minsk with either hysteria or naivety. Belarus has been a tool of force on NATO's east flank for respective years: from the blackmail of migration to military infrastructure serving Russia. DN already described how Minsk opens Russia another military gate. 1 calmer conviction of the Belarusian general does not erase this reality.
Russian background over Poland
According to Kazanecki, there are strategically crucial Russian installations in Belarus: the Baranovich Air Base, the Gancevicz Alert strategy and the communication centre of the Russian fleet in Wilejka. In addition, there is the presence of Russian troops and the fact that in 2022 Russia utilized the territory of Belarus to attack Ukraine.
It's not a neighbour who's just looking for trade and peace. It's a Kremlin-related country politically, militarily and economically. Aleksandr Lukashenka can execute gestures towards the West, but his maneuver space is limited by Moscow. Poland must take account not of declarations, but of capabilities, location of bases and experience of fresh years.
That is why the Polish east border cannot be a seasonal theme. erstwhile Latvia detected tunnels from Belarus, it reminded us that NATO border must besides be sealed underground. These are not distant stories from another country. It is the same line of pressure, moving from Minsk through Vilnius to Warsaw.
Fertilizers, Americans and the price of illusions
The U.S. and Belarusian potassium salts besides appear in the conversation with WP. Kazanecki points out that in December 2025, the renewal of diplomatic relations between the US and Belarus and talks on potassium trade were announced. The motive is to be simple: Americans request potassium fertilizers, and their planet resources and real alternatives are limited.
Here begins the problem for Poland and Lithuania. Exports of Belarusian fertilizers would gotta follow the way through Poland or via the Lithuanian Klaipeda. all corridor like this is more than logistics. It's a question of sanctions, infrastructure security, Washington's force on allies and the region's ability to talk with its own voice.
National realism is not about insulting trade. It is to know who earns, who recovers the channels of influence and who bears the risk. If Minsk receives economical oxygen and Russia retains military control over the Belarusian direction, Poland cannot pretend that we are dealing with a average reset.
Poland needs cool hardness
Lukashenko wants to survive. It can reduce migratory pressure, release elected political prisoners, signal the readiness to talk to the West and talk a calmer language through the military. All of this is tactical. However, it does not change the fact that Belarus remains a Russian base over Europe.
For Poland, the proposal is simple. You can talk, but from the position of strength, memory and control. The border must be defended, trade routes checked, and any Minsk proposal judged by the prism of national interest. Warsaw cannot confuse blinking with changing the regime.
If the West again wants to buy peace for the concessions for Lukashenko, the bill may hit the east flank. For Poland, Lithuania and the safety of citizens. This is why, alongside diplomacy, there is simply a request for deterrence, akin to the logic that DN described during the project. the real defence of the east border. Without that, any warming will just be a break between further force attempts.
Source: Virtual Poland.
Source: WP News
