– If Karol Nawrocki win the presidential election, then the PiS will do anything to make it as shortly as possible the collapse of the Tusk Government – said Prof. Antoni Dudek (UKSW) in the program "Shubartowicz's point of view".
What about after the presidential election? Prof. Dudek presented 3 scenarios
– First it will be attempting to renegotiate the majority coalition in the Sejm with PSL and Confederate. If it doesn't work, it will. Trying to convince individual PSL MPs and another ruling parties not to vote in favour of next year's budget, in order to announce early parliamentary elections next spring, he explained.
– If it doesn't help, then Karol Nawrocki will study, together with the generals, what is meant by the Head of the Armed Forces of Poland with respect to the President, added a political scientist.
SEE: Presidential poll. 2 scripts for the second round, Trzaskowski favourite
Expert asked if he meant ‘Military scenario’"and why not." Do you hear what president Kaczyński says? He announces that a separate police force must be created, so the president will be in charge of creating a patriotic army. This is the direction of the Law and Justice," he said.
“Do you believe that Karol Nawrocki will go with the generals, lead the army, bring Tusk out and do this kind of revolution?” asked Przemysław Szubartowicz. – We're moving on slowly. prof. Dudek replied.
Presidential election. Prof. Dudek: We will return to the interwar period
Expert reminded that during the times of the regulation of the Law and Justice Poland had ‘two global fuses’. “The first, weaker, was a Union fuse, and the second, stronger, was an American fuse,” he explained.
– Today, the American fuse does not be at all, and the EU is very weak. If the process of erosion of these external fuses, stabilising democracy in Poland, will proceed, then We will return to the interwar period – he said.
As he recalled in 1926, comparable political conflict ended A military coup, or the coup of May by Józef Piłsudski.
SEE: Presidential poll after debate in Konski. Large declines in support
When asked what would happen if Nawrocki, however, will not win the election, stated that it depends on whether a candidate supported by the Law and Justice will enter the second round.
– If Sławomir Mentzen is in it instead, it will be a giant crisis for Law and JusticeThe biggest in the past of this party. But if he goes on the second round, President Kaczyński will most likely declare that the elections were falsifiedthat he does not recognise president Trzaskowski, that the real president is Nawrocki, and we will live this way, for example, until the next parliamentary election, after which president Trzaskowski will be brought out of the Palace as an illegal President," he said.
– I heard a message recently. Indigenous Blackwho said that if the elections were rigged, they would call a large assembly to Warsaw and bring their own president to the Palace," he added.
A selective scenario. “The fight of who will start in Poland”
Professor Dudek admitted that we are dealing with “great word inflation”, and possibly this time besides will end only with words.
– Just a question of how long. In my opinion, after removing these external fuses to the end, The fight will start in Poland.. And then politicians can decision from words to deeds – he warned.
SEE: "He'll be in trouble." Leszek Miller about 1 of the candidates after the debate
– I'd love to be wrong, but Better to inform than to pretend that there is no specified threat – he added.
The expert stressed that “a affirmative script is besides possible in which RafałTrzaskowski wins the presidential election, and the current government coalition will last until the next election in 2027 and will not lose them".
– Therefore, A generational exchange will take place in the PiS and possibly the successor of president Kaczyński will consider that it takes a small modify organization policy, a small softening, looking for agreements – he concluded.
== sync, corrected by elderman ==
