Sławomir Mentzen returns in a fresh installment but with old passwords. He enthusiastically announces that Poland can be a country of milk and honey flowing, and our children and grandchildren – live in a country that even our parents did not dream of after the fall of communism. Will Poles buy this narrative?
It is hard to tell what the Poles dreamed at the time. It most likely depends on whether they came from a large city or a state and what symbolic capital they had. any closed their eyes and saw the “polish dream”, others most likely could not even sleep, not certain that the morning erstwhile they opened them would not be the last day at work.
Let us leave the dilemmas to that. We already know that the Confederate presidential candidate will be Sławomir Mentzen, a man with a simple answer to every, even the most complicated, problem. And a imagination that goes far beyond what Poland can give as president. So why are these elections? And why is the freedom faction in the Confederacy so easy gaining ground at – it would seem – the inactivity of the national faction?
Would Bosak like a cookie?
The fact that Krzysztof Bosak is not delighted with the candidacy of Sławomir Mentzen seems to be a mystery of the polyquinel today. After the marginalization of Grzegorz Braun, Bosak seemed to be the optimal candidate of the Confederate in the presidential election. A proponent of deregulation, but not poisoned by the venom of Corvinism, due to the fact that the valuable function of community, national mythology, tradition. He seemed to be a compromise option, which would, in fact, be turned by people from fresh Hope and the Confederation of the Polish Crown, but in the end everyone could sign up to his demands.
In addition, Bosak had already led an intense pre-campaign for respective months. From his place he approached the function of Deputy talker of the Sejm very ambitiously, he gladly gave interviews not only in right-wing media, but besides in the libertian podcast “Voivodzki i Kędzierski” or in the left-wing YouTube channel “Two left hands”. He wanted to be an option exceeding the organization division into PO and PiS, and he most likely thought, like national parties in another countries, about breaking the conventional diad "left-right".
However, it turned out that Mentzen had equally large ambitions. Or indeed, as any say, so large that he put the case of his candidacy in the presidential election on the edge of a knife, threatening Bosak with a divided – it is hard to say. It is known that the gentlemen crossed swords, which was expected sooner or later. Bosak, however, withdrew in time and, taking into account Mentzen's aspirations and brutality, rightly. Why?
Perhaps the leader of nationalists knows something that the wider public does not know, and that can be picked up by any careful political observer: Mentzen has so far been under force and has not dealt with defeats. This was evident in the election run to the Sejm and the legislature erstwhile he failed to keep the field to Richard Petru, a politician media-experienced, but not putting his interlocutors besides high. On October 15, Mentzen broke in front of the cameras, shaken by the mediocre results of the Confederacy. So Bosak may simply be aware that Methzen's powerful opponent in this run will be Mentzen himself.
That's why the leader of nationalists, although he didn't get the cookie, he can eat it. Because, paradoxically, there's a chance he'll profit from this candidacy. If Mentzen fails to endure the hardships of an highly long run (he is expected to be in rule 9 months of activity since the announcement of his candidacy), and the consequence will prove far from the expected 15-20 percent, then the faction of freedomists will receive a strong blow, under which he may not bend, but will surely falter on his feet. And Bosak, in turn, will receive the insignia of the judge's power to justice the co-leader and consequently even take control of the group.
But that's speculation, of course. All cards – so far – are in Mentzen's hands. And he could gain or lose. At your request.
Dediabolization or old film?
A lot depends on how he places the presidential campaign. Based on his first statements following the announcement of the candidacy, it can be concluded that Mentzen does not intend to overly search the votes of a conservative-social PiS voter. Rather, it plans to grow towards Szymon Hołownia, which aims at the electorate disappointed with the failure to fulfill the promise of material promotion educated from large centres (not young, as in the days of Donald Tusk's first rule); and the mediate B class – as the publicist Piotr Trzewski pointedly described – i.e. fast-earned residents of the state in the last decade. This electorate is not tiny and highly ambitious, after all, it reflects what it has lost during the transition, as cities developed at the expense of the village.
So what's Mentzen fighting for? About 20 percent of the voters, which are partially the basis of the Confederate (young-rebellioned) and partially the world-classical social layer, who considered that neither the Law and Justice and the PO would satisfy their aspirations due to the fact that they served the interests of another groups of voters.
If Mentzen succeeds in gaining 15 percent support, he will be able to consider it a success but only an individual, who will strengthen him as 1 of the Confederate leaders. Moreover, the biggest problem of his group is the low ambition. The Confederacy seems to be only to become a language at the weight of a junior partner, delivering a majority in the Sejm of a stronger party. It wants to gain a good negotiating position to implement its demands. Nothing more. And this, actually, isn't much.
Unfortunately, if the Confederate wants to do more, it must quit extremist demands on freedom and limit them mainly to the sphere of individual freedom. The combination of radically liberal economical declarations in Poland with a conservative worldview will surely not let any organization to build broad public support. So if Mentzen wants more than to knock Simon Holown out, he must yet bury his corvinism for social sensitivity. Will he do it? There's not much point.
Mentzen is faced with a key choice: dediabolize the Confederacy and play for a large stake or base on old films and hope it proves more efficient than Holownia. In the first case, he will play for the full pot, the T-shirt of the Confederate leader, while in the second he will only strengthen his position, but he will not be able to defeat the intraparty antagonists.
A small loop, what's Stanowski gonna do?
What are the dangers of Mentzen? First and foremost: fresh Hope's leader seems to believe that what has brought him success on the net will besides benefit him in reality. And so he has been designing his message for months. So he speaks in general, looks for catchy slogans, has studied phrases and behavior. And of course, he pulls simple prescriptions out of his sleeve for all problem. Where others bring numbers, data, and arguments, Mentzen supplies only a set of words to effectively plow his opponent, which is not peculiarly successful. He is so more a vlogger than a politician.
In addition, I have the impression that the Confederate candidate sometimes acts as if he were learning from books. So it has the kind of an efficient official, the minister of finance – which I would like to become – but not a leader, able to break the patterns in confronting the component of debate or election meeting. So the trap is the deficiency of charisma.
Another obstacle Mentzen may stumble over may be 1 of the main topics of this campaign. There are many indications that he will be safe again. This is where the Confederate – including Mentzen – has a serious problem to correlate his postulates with the worldview of their electoral base. So far, this group is simply flowing in the mainstream convincing that we should arm ourselves, invest in our own defence industry, and defender our borders. So the message is clear: let us prepare for war and possibly save peace.
I – I dare say – the database of Confederate voters may have a problem with this. Young rebels who in the Confederacy see the fresh incarnation of Kukiza, alternatively of promising to increase the cost-effectiveness of military training and service in volunteer troops, would like to introduce a "passport +" programme that would facilitate their departure from the country in case of war. It must be remembered that the Polish liberal individual is alternatively asocial. For him, whether he will live in Poland or Spain does not substance much. And here again the question of expanding the voters' base, since the conservative appeal to defend the Homeland for any of the current Confederate voters is not very attractive. They have a promised home and 2 cars, not trenches, rocket fire, or, God forbid, death in the field of glory.
And the last trap for Mentzen is competition. The hoard is not a bad opponent. Since the leader of fresh Hope had so many problems with Ryszard Petru, confronting the very efficient media head of Poland 2050, it could end up a knockout for him.
And already a complete tragedy from the point of view of the Confederate would be the start in the election of Krzysztof Stanowski. The creator of Channel Zero is present the best Confederate politician – he does the addition of what Mentzen only dreams of. The ora of opponents, has an opinion on all subject, throws a thick word, does not let himself to get on his head, is charismatic and – although his opinions are alternatively liberal – does not seem to be dogmatic in terms of economical freedom. So it does not frighten anyone with the imagination of a "free revolution". And at the same time, it is an perfect proposal for voters to spectacularly strol the full political class. In a word: Stanowski is simply a large candidate for Polish Trump.
Stanowski's start is now pure fantasy and possibly Sławomir Mentzen will be the only Confederate candidate in this election. Then we'll see if he can surprise any voters. People evolve and change, sometimes at unexpected moments. Donald Tusk throughout the 1990s was said to be lazy and sybarite. And yet he challenged the surviving area of III of Poland. And he won by taking over the government of liberal souls. Mentzen, theoretically, can turn the table over, too. Though it would be a large surprise.
Tomasz Figura
