Prof. John late gave an interview to the Hong Kong edition of the South China Morning Post. mostly – there is nothing fresh there, but it is worth stopping at 3 of his observations.
First. "Frozen" conflict – in 2 years, not faster, and it won't take long. By then Russia will occupy “about 43% of Ukraine’s territory”, “a fewer large pieces”. In addition to Crimea, ‘eight more regions’. They seem to draw any maps, defence lines and fortifications, lines of natural obstacles due to the fact that they can give specified an accurate forecast in percentages.
Second forecast. Mearsheimer says, “There are certain conflicts in which a peaceful solution can be imagined, but that is not the case here. There is no solution and there are 2 main obstacles that make peace almost impossible. The first obstacle is territories. Russia will never want to quit the recently annexed territories, and Ukraine will never accept their losses. The another is NATO. For each side, this question is besides fundamental, and the answer is diametrically opposite."
Therefore, as Mearsheimer predicts, it is simply a cold war forever. Although, as he put it, Ukraine's “kick” will remain. “What remains of Ukraine,” says the professor, “will be an inactive stump state that will not be able to go to large-scale war against Russia. Nor will it meet the criteria for accession to the EU and NATO. But for the Cold War this stump will suffice.”
Therefore, Mearsheimer says, "Russians will prepare intensively at the time of the frost of the conflict, due to the fact that the decisive triumph will be the 1 in which Russia will conquer all Ukraine." Moreover, “Russians will have terrible relations with the West and will make all effort to origin problems in the West.”
This request for "the conquest of the full Ukraine" is besides seen as valid due to the fact that as long as there is simply a "kikut of Mearsheimer", the full West will request astronomical reparations from Russia for everything that war has brought. And not just for broken houses, power stations, or roads. They are besides killed Ukrainians. These damages will besides be included in the account – for the failure of household earners, unborn children, the GDP of Ukraine lost for a 100 years forward.
Third problem. Do China request all this? They trade with the West for hundreds of billions of dollars, the economy is developing, why would it aid Russia if it is so well integrated into the Western economy. The United States is believed to provoke Ukraine and are curious in this endless war to hold Russian forces. Similarly, China is absolutely curious in this war so that Russia will hold American forces as much and as long as possible. And they will aid Russia to everyone – so that Russia does not lose. But – best – she did not win. To keep this conflict going.
But the Americans, according to Mearsheimer, “have a vital interest in not getting stuck in the war in Ukraine. due to the fact that they are even more curious in sending all their forces to East Asia to halt China. Why? due to the fact that Americans see China as a more serious threat than Russia, due to the fact that China is simply a rising power, competing on equal terms with the United States. It is so in the interests of the United States to limit the war in Ukraine, otherwise America will not be able to full strengthen itself in Asia."
"It is incorrect that this war pushed the Russians into the arms of the Chinese, and the United States itself stupidly contributed, although they should have done everything possible to guarantee that Russia and China were not close allies. This mistake of Washington has become a manna from heaven to the Chinese. It is crucial for them that the Americans stay profoundly engaged and frustrated in Europe so that they cannot focus on China. This will mean that Americans will have little time to think about defending Taiwan, reasoning about creating an alliance to fight for Taiwan. Part of the weapon Washington could have sent to Taiwan under average conditions came to Ukraine, not Taipei."
Perhaps that's why British defence Secretary Ben Wallace at the NATO Summit, speaking of weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told Zelensk: “You know, we are not Amazon to you.” Wallace understands that the Americans will be finished soon, and London and another Europeans will not even be able to sustain Ukraine...
for: mk.ru
