The inauguration of Donald Trump as the president of the United States gives emergence to large emotions in Poland. The main question under discussion is: will Trump give our region more or little than Biden in the context of the war in Ukraine, or will it do nothing at all? That's a good question, due to the fact that we have nothing to say about it, and the destiny of our region depends on the American decision.
Possible directions, which will be chosen by the fresh administration regarding the war, are well known and rolled down in various configurations for many months.
Four scenarios
First it is the end of the war and thus the announcement of political success at all costs, i.e. at the cost of Ukraine's concessions and thus the weakening of our full region. This will inevitably end in another, most likely even more bloody than the current war stage, due to the fact that no 1 will be satisfied with it, and Russia will gain time to rebuild war resources.
Second This is Putin's refusal to even halt the war, which would provoke Trump to send adequate equipment and ammunition to Kiev to force the Kremlin into peace talks. This is besides the script most beneficial for Ukraine and our region, but besides the script least likely of all, due to the fact that assuming that Americans abruptly cease to care about the mythical red lines of Moscow.
Third It's besides Putin's refusal to halt the war. However, in this – more likely – Trump script does not supply Ukraine with any help. What Europe is offering is far from adequate aid to halt Russia. Moscow is moving forward, sinking Ukraine and, in the long term, our region in war.
Fourth Putin's refusal to halt the war again. In this option, Trump continues Biden's administration strategy by supplying Ukrainians with adequate weapons to defend, but not to break the aggressor. In this option, too, we are facing further years of war, possibly besides in our territory.
Why will Poland not have any influence on the choice of 1 of the above scenarios?
PAP/EP/KEVIN LAMARQUE / POOLUS Vice president J.D. Vance and president Donald Trump
Second category country
Of course, president Andrzej Duda is Donald Trump's “friend”, Prime Minister Donald Tusk has a “personal relationship” with him, and our full country has a unique European alliance with the US. So much on the issue of our interior marketplace for political marketing, which is expected to give citizens a sense of safety and vote to electoral politicians.
What friendships, relationships and alliances are, Recently, Joe Biden's advice to reduce exports of advanced GPU microprocessors has shown administration. However, as a “special ally of the United States” we are in the second category of countries, together with all Central and east Europe, a large majority of South America, Africa and Asia. Western Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia were ranked in the first category. GPU microprocessors are crucial adequate that they are essential for the improvement of artificial intelligence, and so the American decision condemns the second-class states to slower improvement and the hard task of reaching the economical top of the world.
By category, there are 2 potentials of countries – economical and armed. As far as the economy is concerned, of course, we are developing and trying to catch up with the West, although we have inactive not gotten out of the second category. Many decisions by states about the power charter, including the GPU microprocessors, make us stay in this category despite efforts.
We could have had more influence on the second, arms potential, which would possibly even give us a place at the negotiating table on Ukraine. The problem is, despite the pro-army communicative of the last 2 governments, we have wasted this chance concertally.
Sleepy decades
The point is that as a country for centuries in the geopolitical zone, we have slept through good 3 decades in the field of arms, including the last 18 years, erstwhile developments have been clearly expressed by Vladimir Putin.
Since the end of the Cold War, like all Western Europe, we have been defusing ourselves. This state did not change the 2007 Munich safety Conference erstwhile Putin stated in an open text that his country did not agree with the current planet order and would search to change it. On the issue of arms, we did nothing even then – and it seemed to have already been a suicide consequence – erstwhile Russia detached Crimea and part of Donbas from Ukraine in 2014, starting a war that had been going on for more than a decade.
In all these years, erstwhile there were quite a few equipment and ammunition on the shelves of arms companies at comparatively low prices, we had the chance to make a far-reaching strategy and gradually assemble. We haven't done anything that could even remotely bring us closer to a solid defence system. Presidents and Heads of successive governments assured us of their peculiar relation with subsequent US Presidents in the sense that the closest fact of the defence doctrine, “NATO will defend us”. Now it turns out that we are the NATO that will defend the continent from Russia with the inactive uncertain attitude of many members of the Atlantic Pact.
We woke up in February 2022, buying panic and not looking at prices. The purchased equipment inactive reaches us and will scope us in the following years. The bigger problem is ammunition, especially the key to the Russian-Ukrainian artillery battlefield of 155 mm. Our warehouses are empty, and we inactive do not have our own production capacity in this regard, although subsequent governments are announcing their launch.
The last specified announcement came from defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamish in December. It turns out that the latest of many unsuccessful ideas is to focus on close cooperation with Slovakia. Did 1 of the Minister's bright advisers tell him that it would not improve our plans in any way to even approach the independent production of 155 mm caliber ammunition, due to the fact that our confederate neighbour does not have its own licence as many as 3 components of a single bullet of this type? Slovaks bring powder from France and India, gas generators from more akin to Russia than NATO Serbia, and explosives from Polish Nitro-Chemu. Thus, we multiply intermediaries and announce another large plan, which, with all the erstwhile ones, has 1 thing in common – the future time not accomplished.
This is why we will not sit at the negotiating table on Ukraine.
Who will decide our fate
On the issue of a possible suspension of war – I deliberately usage the word "suspension" due to the fact that Russia is far from fulfilling all its objectives and will not remainder until it does or is yet defeated – on the part of the Allied Americans are having key talks with Germany, France or the United Kingdom.
Even Ukrainians, knowing who plays the first violin, discuss the most crucial issues with these countries, bypassing direct neighbours. erstwhile president Zelenski announced the alleged triumph plan, Poland was not acquainted with the secret annexes of this plan, although the Western states and even Japan were privy to them.
Besides, Ukraine in final negotiations most likely had only a small more to say from Poland and another countries of our region, or possibly not so much. "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" is simply a beautiful sounding slogan, which, however, has no translation into realpolitik.
If real negotiations happen, the US will decide everything in talks with Russia. Subsequently, crucial votes may be taken by countries specified as Germany, France, the United Kingdom. The Scandinavian states may have their own voice. Ukraine will besides participate in the talks, but with a much little impact on the final conclusions. possibly China will join the talks.
All of this, however, with the exception that Russia is actually a power breached by 3 years of intense action and will request to be respited by the continuation of the war. The West historically had a tendency to underestimate Russia's potential, especially in the field of arms. Nothing has changed in fresh years.
What about the voices of Poland or another countries of our region? I'm not saying that we're not going to be in any larger format at all, but we're not going to play any crucial function in them. He is aware of this, as well as the Ukrainians, as president Zelenski emphasized during his fresh visit to Warsaw.
When the president interviewed 4 Polish media in this Onetu asked about Poland's participation in possible negotiations, he stated in general"Europe should have its representation at the negotiating table". most likely will, but not in the form of Poland.
