According to the latest detailed study by the Kilon Institute of planet Economy (Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft), Poland is ranked 3rd in the ranking of aid granted to Ukraine in absolute figures. These are data combining direct aid, including military aid, and aid to refugees, i.e. the expenditure of the Polish state on Ukrainians residing in Poland. Only the United States and Germany were ahead. Poland spent EUR 34 billion, over PLN 140 billion. And it's not over, of course.
In the spending ranking as a percent of GDP of 2021, we are definitely in the first place: 5.46%. The next 1 is rather far behind Estonia: 4.33%. Recorders in absolute numbers are far, far: Germany – 1,33%, USA – 0.53%.
Of course, it is not that all this aid was either unfounded or futile. Not at all. In particular, it is possible to defend the aid which Poland granted to Ukraine immediately after the Russian invasion of the country. However, it is no longer possible to defend the full social rights that Ukrainians in Poland received – which were not essential in the light of EU regulation, on the basis of which Ukrainian refugees came to the EU. Nor is it possible to defend unconditionally the provision of assistance in subsequent packages, as another conflicting with our interests of the Ukrainian state came to light, and as it became clearer that flagism turns out to be a consciously strengthened foundation of Ukrainian identity – contrary to the hopes of many, including the author of this text, to change the optics, so that the protagonists are at its center. Polish aid from at least the second year of the war, or possibly earlier, should have been conditional on Ukraine gathering circumstantial conditions.
This PLN 140 billion is of course only part of the full cost of this war. We must add to this the losses resulting from the reduced level of safety – even if this is clearly not seen, specified investments are surely on the side. The cost of sanctions that the 16th package has just been adopted by the EU should besides be added. With sanctions, the problem is that they were meant to bring Russia down, but only somewhat weakened it – to what we truly do not know, due to the fact that the statistic are very ambiguous. The OECD forecast points to a decline in Russia's GDP growth in the following years – 1.1% this year and only 0.9% in 2026, but it is not inactive a recession or even more a collapse of the system. By comparison, Germany in the same period is 0.7% and 1.2%.
The penalties were never verified for the impact. In Poland, at least part of the audience considers them to be an instrument of global justice, while they should only be considered a applicable instrument of policy. Sanctions are intended to harm sanctioned more than sanctioning at a certain time. If this does not happen and if this imposing sanctions loses more or if there is simply a balance here, it means that sanctions are pointless. The deficiency of sanctions does not, of course, mean having to trade with another country. It just means that there's no lock on that exchange. For example, the deficiency of sanctions on Russian gas would not mean that we would gotta or should proceed to buy gas from Russia.
The 3rd anniversary of the start of the war made you feel like you were almost 3 years younger, at least on social networks. Many entries looked as if they had been copied from the first months of 2022 and did not take into account events that have occurred since then. So besides at least half a million victims (killed and wounded) among Ukrainian soldiers and the unknown number of civilian casualties, financial demolition of Ukraine, its demographic drama. specified voices show a full deficiency of rationality. Ukraine is valuable to us as long as it remains a functional state – unfortunately no longer on its own – adequate to make a barrier between us and Russia. From this point of view, the usefulness of the Ukrainian State is decreasing at a extremist rate. After all, a depopulated country, with a terrible demography, from which people escape and will flee, becomes a strategical vacuum, not an effective barrier against possible Russian influence. For this reason, it is in Polish interest to end the armed action. besides due to the fact that they last longer, the greater the hazard of uncontrolled developments. Although since the fresh U.S. administration entered the stage, this has actually decreased significantly. Fortunately and paradoxically, due to the fact that any people think that Donald Trump is the 1 who introduces unpredictability to this game. However, erstwhile it comes to strictly military actions, it is different. The possible of an agreement limits, does not strengthen the possible of abrupt and accidental catastrophic developments.
Here we should callback the illogicalness of the instigators' war factions, which I have pointed out for a long time: the pause in armed action can be utilized by Russia to strengthen its potential, but it can be utilized in the same way by Ukraine and the West, which the instigators have no longer seen. It's up to us. The ball is on our side. And let us remember that even Vladimir Putin – although he was about to die according to the “experts” of 143 times – is not eternal. present the Russian president is 73 years old. After his death, which may happen during pause, the strategy may replicate, but it does not have to. And even so, priorities can change a little.
Finally, let us take into account that we are in the process of a deep strategical re-esteem. In Poland, comment is made – and this is from unrelentingly moralizing positions – mainly the words of leaders. But let us not focus on them. If, in fact, 1 of Washington's goals – and all this points to it – is to take control of a large part of Ukraine's natural deposits, it is actual that this means a kind of colonization for the Ukrainians, but it besides means a protection that the Americans will not be able to avoid completely. 1 can besides presume that it is better to be an American colony under the protection of an empire than a country attacked by Russia, where people hide from conscription.
Will we have any interest in this? I uncertainty it, and the perfect test was the "meeting" (without quotation to compose it) of president Duda with Donald Trump, which – to say the least – was embarrassing for the head of the Polish state. At the same time it indicated in which order of allies the fresh administration sets Poland. And it's not the first row. That's why it would be good to yet be able to measurement the forces of intent. After 3 years, start taking care of your business, even narrowly understood. To reconcile that Poland at the large table will not be – despite the aid statistic given at the beginning. And we truly can only resent each other.
Luke Warches
[OSTRA DEBATA] PARAFIANOWIC, WARZECHA, MACIEWSKI, CARPIEL: POLAND AT WAR – BILANS
