Written by: Małgorzata Czarnik, Bartosz Mirowski, Maciej Pawłowski
Analysis briefly:
- The Libyans seldom migrate abroad permanently. They like seasonal emigration to Tunisia erstwhile their city is approached by a front or for treatment or vacation.
- Libya is simply a transit country for migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa.
- The agreement between Italy and Libya is an effective tool for reducing illegal migration. However, there is simply a realisation involving violations of the rights of migrants.
19 August in Algerian The press was informed of the impending offensive General Khaftar in southwest Libya. Its aim was to hunt down and destruct the troops of Saifa as-Islam Khadafi (the boy of erstwhile dictator of Libya) to hide in the desert and then strike the capital of the country – Tripoli. The offensive inactive hasn't happened. It could lead to temporary migration of Libyans to Tunisia and an increase in the influx of illegal migrants from sub-Saharan Africa to Italy and Malta. Libya is the main transit country for citizens of those countries wishing to enter the EU. Government policy in Tripoli assumes to counter illegal migration to Italy, and for the east Libyan regime, Gen. Khalifa Khaftara is 1 of the main sources of income. At the same time, migrants are subjected to force under both centres of power.
Internal situation
Libya is simply a country in which since the collapse of Muammar Khaddafi's government there is no unified central authority. Around 25% The territory is controlled by the government in Tripoli headed by Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dubeiba. The remainder of the country is occupied by the troops of Gen. Khalifa Khaftara and their local allies. Both sides waged a civilian war against each another between 2014 and 2020, and between 2020 and 2022 parliaments from both parts of the country jointly passed the law and there was 1 central government. In the wake of the failure to hold national presidential and parliamentary elections, 2 separate centres of power were re-established. At the same time, there are different tribal militias in the country, whose loyalty is variable. Algerian media They besides fishy that Khadafi Jr.'s troops are hiding in the region of Fezzan in the southwest of the country.
The relations between the government in Tripoli and General Khaftar are complex. Where it is beneficial for both parties, the State is integrated. The monetary policy of the full country is governed by 1 central bank. From 2011 to August 2024 he was led by Sadek Elkaber, being de facto 1 of the most powerful people in the country. However, on 18 August this year, he was dismissed by the Presidential Council as a collective head of state recognising the government in Tripoli. The unofficial reason was his alleged cooperation with General Khaftar. His successor Mohamed Shoukry is Prime Minister of Dubai. The rules for the distribution of profits from trade between the 2 centres of power are made by the state-owned corp National Oil corp (NOC). The NOC authorities are nominated by the government in Tripoli and Gen. Khaftar submits to their decisions as long as they supply him with a permanent origin of income. However, both centres of power do not want to hold national parliamentary elections or make a common government due to the fact that they fear the failure of power and access to hydrocarbon pensions. The way to preserve your position is to have your own military troops and abroad allies. The government in Tripoli is primarily supported by Turkey, Italy and Algeria. General Khaftara's troops receive financial support from France, Saudi Arabia and the United arabian Emirates. The weapons supply them with China and Russia. Russian mercenaries besides service in their lineup. At the same time, however, there has been virtually no fighting between the armies of both centres of power since 2020.
Legal migration
The Libyans do not show mass interest in migration, as the conditions of surviving in the country satisfy their basic needs. Despite the abolition of social benefits and subsidies (to electricity, gas, water and food) and the emergence in income inequality following the collapse of Gaddafi's dictatorship, many Libyans proceed to benefit from the profits of oil exports. surviving in conventional communities, they feel safe and reluctant to leave. A strong attachment to their homeland makes migration not so attractive to them. They like seasonal migration. any have homes in Tunisia, where they leave briefly to rest, heal or shelter themselves from threats, but later they return to Libya in the vast majority. Seasonal migration to Egypt and Algeria occurs little frequently.
The degree of migration to neighbouring countries is besides affected by the existing visa rules. Libyans can enter legally, both in Tunisia and Algeriawithout a visa for up to 90 days. W Egypt may stay for up to 6 months without a visa for women, children and men of 45 years of age. Men aged 18-45 must apply for a visa. The trend of population movement is not constant. Border crossings in fresh decades have been repeatedly closed and opened.
Some Libyans migrate to the EU. From 2014 to 2023, Schengen visa applications were submitted a full of 127,813 Libyan citizens. Nearly 80% of them received a affirmative response.
Most visa applications (37.6%) were submitted in 2014, following the start of the Second civilian War (2014 – 2020). In 2015 and 2016, the number of applications was record-breakingly low – the country's most likely unstable situation and hard access to diplomatic posts contributed to this. In 2017-2019, another 31,028 people (74.1% of efficacy) were applied. The situation changed in 2020, erstwhile due to the pandemic their number dropped 4 times (from 11254 in 2019 to 2694 in 2020). Since 2021, the number of visa applications lodged among Libyans has steadily increased, resulting from the reopening of EU consulates in the country. From 2021 to 2023, the number of applications submitted increased more than five times – from 4.7 1000 to 24.5 thousand. In 2023, Libyans most frequently applied for visas at Italian consulates (12 040), Malta (7023) and Greece (5160). In 2020, Turkey simplified visa procedures and allowed the citizens of Libya to enter freely for up to 90 days without having to get a visa. It is estimated that 2023. 200 000. Libyans visited Turkey for tourist purposes.
Illegal migration
Libya is simply a key transit country on the Central-Mediterranean route. Due to its proximity to Europe, it serves as a migration way not only for Libyans but besides for citizens of Sub-Saharan African states (including Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Benin, Ghana, Kenya). The country borders Niger and Chad on the section c. 1400 km covering hard to overcome desert areas. At the same time, the smuggling of migrants became the main maintenance for General Khaftar's troops.
Libya has signed a series with Italy since 2000 contracts on combating illegal migration. A break in their validity took place in 2013-2016, which affected the migration crisis in Italy. Cooperation has continued since 2017 under the Memorandum of knowing between Italian governments and the UN-recognized government in Tripoli. Already in its first year of application, the number of illegal border crossings on the Central-Mediterranean way decreased to 20,000 from 181 000. The last of the contracts was signed in February 2024. Under their power, Libya receives financial support and in return is to turn ships with migrants leaving its coast. Many controversy over human rights violations and global law has grown around the agreement.
Under government in Tripoli, a government Department for Combating Illegal Migration (DCIM) was established. In fact, he cooperates with migrant smugglers whom he transfers to authoritative and unofficial detention centres and forces ransoms through physical and sexual violence. In addition, access to food, clean water and individual freedom redeemed through sexual services.
Migrants in Libya (including those seeking employment in Libya or passing through Libya on their way to Europe) are peculiarly susceptible to sexual and commercial trafficking. 76% male, 67% female and 77% paediatric transiting through Libya has experienced exploitation and abuse.
International organisations estimation that in December 2023 Libya was at least 706 369 migrants and refugees from over 44 nationalities.
Conclusions and perspectives
Libya has been a failed state since the overthrow of Khadafi's regime. The chaos in it was the main origin of the migration crisis in Italy in 2015-2016. The 2017 cooperation mechanics between the Government in Tripoli and Italy allows for a crucial simplification of illegal migration to the EU. However, it will cease to function if the gene. Khaftar will launch an effective offensive in the western part of the country. A fresh migration crisis in Italy is likely to erupt.
In order to avoid this, the EU must make a common position on Libya and propose to both parties a solution to guarantee that the share of access to the proceeds of trade in hydrocarbons is maintained within the framework of the single centre of state power. The EU should besides build effective channels of communication with Gen. Khaftar, as it is likely that in the future it will grow its power throughout Libya. Before this happens, a mechanics should be developed to encourage his services to counter illegal migration to the EU, in line with the cooperation of Italy and the Government in Tripoli.
Libya, due to its oil and coal resources and its tiny population (7 million) is simply a country that can supply jobs for millions of migrants from Egypt and Sub-Saharan Africa. This can be helped by abroad direct investment in the hydrocarbon sector returning to the country from 2021. However, it is crucial that the rights of migrants working in this area are respected and that they do not become de facto slaves to their employers. To this end, it is crucial for the EU institutions to force the Libyan authorities to transfer control of the centres where migrants are held by making the provision of improvement assistance conditional on the implementation of this request.
More information on migration from Libya to the EU will be presented in Maciej Pawłowski's book "The Gate to Europe. Whether North Africa will decide the future of the Old Continent”, which will be published by the publishing home Przewita in 2025.
