Such a question, utilized together with another, looking for the benefit of a given event, was associated in Poland with the political rhetoric of Wojciech Jaruzelski. However, despite any bazaar, or even ridicule, due to Jaruzelski, this method gives good results, as the ancients have already pointed out: is fecit, cui prodest – the perpetrator is the 1 who benefited.
Let us effort to apply this approach to the issue of harm to the Nord Stream pipelines. It happened at the end of last month, but it's inactive unclear.
Here the opinions were divided between those who attributed work to the US and those who saw Russia's activities in it. To the erstwhile he enrolled, and most likely as 1 of the first, Radek Sikorski with his Twitter entry, where a photograph depicting the gas leak from the damaged pipeline commented by thanking the USA: Thank you, USA.
They almost immediately picked it up and utilized the Russians. Russian MMA spokeswoman Maria Zacharowa wrote: “Polish MEP Radek Sikorski tweeted thanks to the United States for the accident on Russian gas pipelines today. Is this an authoritative message of a terrorist attack?’
In turn, Dmitri Poljański, Deputy Permanent typical of Russia to the UN, who knows Sikorski from his time in Warsaw, turned so much in collegiate: “Thank you, Radek Sikorski! You clearly wrote who was behind the terrorist attack on civilian infrastructure."
But Sikorski was given the top publicity by his own chief typical of Russia to the UN, Vasily Nebenzia, who waved a postcard with a printed Twitt Sikorski in the UN, as any kind of proof that the US had attacked Nord Stream.
Several commentators associated this with the celebrated event of sixty years ago, erstwhile Khrushchev, besides at the UN forum, threw his shoe at the desktop to strengthen his assurances that the USSR would bury the West. Yes, for example, Zbigniew Parafianovich from the diary of the Legal Gazette titled his opinion on this subject as follows: "How Sikorski became Mr Khrushchev's shoe".
It's not my goal to find out why Sikorski acted like this, which led him to it. Much more crucial are the consequences of his behavior. It should be noted that Sikorski is presently the head of the European Parliament's Delegation for Relations with the US. The question is how this scandal will affect his ability to fill the position of president in a situation where a U.S. State Department spokesperson called the proposition that behind the Baltic blasts a permanent US, “the function of Russian misinformation”. This full affair may be a problem not only for Sikorski, but besides for his party, the PO, and besides for the European Parliament, where he is the head of the aforementioned Delegation for Relations with the US in his current term. According to a well-known American, prof. Zbigniew Lewicki, "Radosław Sikorski has permanently compromised himself in the United States".
But let us leave these issues on the side, due to the fact that it is more crucial than them to find who is liable for the harm to Nord Stream. There's an global investigation going on. However, it was not given to the Russian side, and even Russia was not allowed to participate there. specified a crucial difference compared to the investigation of the Smolensk catastrophe by the then Polish government. Is that erstwhile Russia was trustworthy and credible, and it was only now that it stopped being so?
Who, then, had business in making Nord Stream halt working? It would seem that Russia itself should be least afraid to attack its own infrastructure.
However, specified an apparent apparent start to look different erstwhile we look more closely at the situation around Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines.
It is no secret that Putin, wanted, by blocking the flow through Nord Stream 1, to lead to the launch of Nord Stream 2. A case is known erstwhile the Russian side refused to accept a gas-pressor turbine from the Germans renovated in Canada by NS1 to make additional force to approve NS2 that was already ready.
In July 2022, gas flow in NS1 was discontinued due to maintenance work, then resumed with reduced capacity, but at the end of August was completely shut down by the Russian operator. Besides, Dmitri Pieskov, the spokesperson for the president of Russia, made it clear: The problems with gas supply will proceed to be abolished.
At the same time, Russia was aware that the hijacking of contracts, the non-acceptance of turbines for NS1 and the stopping of gas pumping, would end in the long word before the arbitration court, where Germany and another contractors would complain to Gazprom about large damages, which would be the greater, the longer it would take for Russia to halt supplying gas.
Therefore, the harm to the pipeline, so large that it objectively prevents any gas pumping by Gazprom, besides relieves this company from being liable for failing to meet contracts. This can best be attributed to a higher force whose action removes the anticipation of compensation. In this context, permanent harm to NS1 may be beneficial for Gazprom.
What about Nord Stream 2, which Putin cares so much about running? This is an even more interesting situation. Both NS1 and NS2 consist of 2 threads of pipes, each. Well, as a consequence of the alleged sabotage, both NS1 threads were damaged, but only 1 strand of NS2 gas pipeline was damaged. The B thread of this pipeline is to be functional and, according to the statements of the Russian side, it is ready to deliver gas to Germany.
On October 3, the government paper Rossiaj Gaziet reported this in a text entitled "Европа может импорт газа России России по по оставшейся трубе Северного "Северного потока-2" (Europe is to start importing gas with the remaining NS2 thread).
What an amazing case, with the harm to the gas pipelines! NS1, which Russia did not want to send gas, was completely damaged, and the NS2, which Russia wants to force in any way, could just start transmission.
What is it, expected by the Russian authorities, the subsequent course of events? It's not hard to guess. The Russians most likely anticipate the current situation of Germany to force them to launch NS2, and after this one, undamaged thread starts to work, the another 3 damaged will repair and the full infrastructure will begin to work, thereby allowing the complete elimination of gas transmission by Ukraine and Poland, just as Putin would like.
It seems that the degree of the harm on September 26 precisely fits this scenario. This is not the first case where the harm to gas pipelines someway coincided with the Russian business. This was besides the case, for example, in January 2006, when, as a consequence of the explosion, a gas pipeline from Russia to Georgia was damaged, just erstwhile Georgia revealed its willingness to join NATO.
It can be seen that those who blow up Russian gas pipelines, terrorists on whom Russia will avenge so strongly, have any unusual chance, very powerfully in head the current Russian business.
All this allows us to have large doubts about the authoritative Russian communicative in this respect. In the Russian propaganda arrangement, however, most likely not very complicated, different people execute certain roles, including those who effort to delegate the deed to any another than Russia, to the state.
Stanisław Lewicki
