According to the media, in the Russian penal colony behind the Arctic Circle, he died, the most presently known Russian oppositionist Alexey Navalny. origin of death was expected to be abrupt fainting.
Among the political groups who considered Russia to be their top enemy, the reaction was rather uniform, and it came down to accusing the Russian authorities, the current ruler in the Kremlin, of causing this death. The differences consisted mainly in listing Putin as liable or simply suggesting this responsibility. Although there have besides been completely cabotin appearances, like the 1 where Putin was declared to have been trampled on the ground.
However, let's effort to consider something in the broader political context of the large game that Russia is presently playing against the West. announcement that Putin, a fewer days earlier, the first time since the Russian army attacked the beginning of Ukraine, gave a long interview to a popular American political commentator. That interview with Carlson Tucker had quite a few coverage in the media. Only over 200 million people watched it on the English-speaking X platform.
What was Putin’s goal by speaking, in this way, straight to the Western public? In addition to presenting its version of the reasons for this conflict and blaming Ukraine and the West, it was besides a declaration of a peaceful solution through direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations and a return from the supposedly agreed in April 2022 in Istanbul, between the delegations of both countries, a expression for ending the conflict, which was yet to be rejected by the Ukrainian side at that time for the purposes of erstwhile British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
If those arrangements were to be kept, then war, according to Putin, would be long gone. You can see that Putin is trying, in this interview, to present himself as a peace supporter and to inspire confidence. Looking at it from this side, it seems that specified an event, specified as the death of the chief oppositionist, which will be utilized by the opinion-making centres in the West to further demonize Putin's person, goes powerfully against specified intentions. Putin aimed at warming his image, as a supporter of peace, in Western countries.
In this sense Putin should not be curious in something like the death of Navalny happening. This would be a situation somewhat comparable to the assassination of priest Popieluszko, who, at the level of friction at the top of the Polish People's Republic, was besides a provocation of hard-headed communists, against Jaruzelski's plans.
It is besides known that in the Russian political circles, there are people opposed to any detention of war in Ukraine, and they are in favour of further escalation, even with atomic weapons. And it will not be hard to identify those who have already spoken straight about it. These include, for example, Colonel Igor Girkin, the leader of the alleged “Club of Angry Patriots”, who is presently serving conviction for promoting extremism. He besides preached akin views as long as he was alive, Evgeny Prigoshyn. besides ruling in Chechnya Ramazan Kadyrov, he late expressed public concern that due to his consent to the ceasefire, a city specified as Odessa may not be recovered.
It can be seen, therefore, that in Russia there are no shortages of people supporting the war in Ukraine in a more decisive manner than Putin does, and already consent to any agreement with the West (despicuously referred to as "dogwarnik") they reject, due to the fact that they claim that it will open the way to the same thing that happened to Serbia's leader Slobodan Milosevic, whose acceptance of western conditions yet led to the Hague prison where he died. The court in The Hague did not halt at Milosevic, but it drew many people accused of war crimes. Those in Russia who want to avoid a akin script would be willing to do much to prevent any agreement between Russia and the West, which Putin is suspected to have.
Navalny's character was besides important, even crucial, for another kind of political game. After attempting to poison him in Russia in 2020, he was, in a coma, transported to Germany for treatment at the Charité infirmary in Berlin. And there he was actually cured, and after any time he returned to Russia, although it was known that power would not let him to act freely.
Propaganda called him a "Berlin patient" and suggested that he was a German tool and a major component of their political task in Russia.
W Germany is well remembered that joining the GDR to the national Republic was possible thanks to the policies of Mikhail Gorbachev, who later besides went to treatment in Germany many times, as was his wife Raisa.
Many, in view of the current increasing interest in Navalny, callback that his declared political views contained nationalistic or large-scale elements. This should not be taken into account because, as a serious politician, he presented views and actions that could guarantee his election success, and this means modifying them according to the requirements of the moment. We have besides seen something akin in Poland recently, erstwhile a coalition focused around Tusk replaced the run with EU national flags.
German friends of Navalny hoped that he could seriously fight for power in Russia and replace Putin as president. Leonid Volkov, a trustee of Navalny, late stated: “We are well - set and capable. We conducted successful electoral campaigns in Russia, including a toxic environment, under incredible pressure. And we have the results – we won in average Russian cities (...) We have experience we can trust on.”
And now, with Navalny's death, all those hopes Germany said that in Russia a favorable man would shortly rule, they collapsed.
The same day Navalny's death was besides signed in Berlin, a safety agreement between Germany and Ukraine. possibly both events have a connection and individual in Russia has decided that Germany has gone besides far and that their political influence in Russia should be drastically reduced.
Some besides claim, for example, Grzegorz Kuczyński – considered to be an expert on Russia's affairs, that Navalny's death will long miss the anticipation of peace talks with Putin.
I seriously uncertainty specified predictions, as it is only essential to put together a certain series of events from the close past. On 6 June 2014, the alleged Normandy format was created, where leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine decided to work together to end the conflict in Donbasa. On July 17, 2014, the Dutch Boeing 777, close Donetsk, was shot down, causing a large shock in the West, and the accusations were immediately directed towards Moscow and pro-Russian separatists. But in a period and a half, on September 5, 2014, the first peace agreement was signed in Minsk, which was supplemented, in February 2015, by a second agreement, already with Putin, Merkel and Hollande's direct participation. As you can see, the case of shooting down Dutch Boeing did not break up, nor did it even delay, the Minsk trial. I'm certain it will be now.
Stanisław Lewicki
