Many proceed to think about what happened in Russia on 23-24 June, erstwhile the Primogyna military formation, operating in Ukraine, decided abruptly to carry out a military operation in Russia itself and did so in a spectacular way, simultaneously occupying the millionth city of Rostov over Don, and embarking on a 800 km rally aimed at Moscow itself.
We Poles can appreciate the cavalry's fantasy, so I was not without admiration watching the beginnings of Wagner Group.
In addition, the full case seems to be a consequence of half of the private dispute between Prigozhyn and the administration of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, in the persons of Sergei Szojgu and Walerija Gierasimov.
Because Prigozhyn was incapable to capture the Shojg and Gierasimov in Rostov, where they were to escape by helicopter, he wanted them, according to logic, in Moscow itself, at the office of their ministry. But Russia is simply a large country, so possibly the Primogyn realized that they could flee even further, to Saint Petersburg, or to Kamchatka, and yet decided to pull them off and agree to accept negotiated terms for the conclusion of their "martial of justice".
The essence and meaning of Wagner Groups I've written the Priggoine before and I won't repeat myself. On the another hand, based on fresh information, it is worth trying to scope the real causes of the conflict between the Minister of the Shojg. According to the Primogyn, this was to be an insufficient supply of his fighting troops with artillery ammunition, which the deficiency of which, in turn, was to origin increased losses among, attacking the Ukrainian fortifications, Wagner's militants.
To me, however, this Primogyn presented, the sensitivity to the destiny of his fighters, does not seem peculiarly credible and 1 should say that the real origin lay elsewhere.
Well, if you can't figure out the nature of the conflict, it could be about money, and it could be about money.
According to the information provided by the Russian authorities, Evgenija Prigożyna, including Wagner Group, received a full of 1.7 trillion rubles from the Russian State. According to the current course, it is almost $19 billion, and since transfers took place for respective years erstwhile the ruble rate was importantly higher than today, so the actual value of these transfers has indeed exceeded $20 billion – an astronomical amount.
It was large adequate that, in these hard times, many Moscow oligarchs from the circles of power, including the Minister Sergey Szojgu themselves, wanted to take over, imagining that it was nothing to make a akin military organization as the Wagner Group, or to take over his interests, and with them immense withdrawals from the Kremlin.
This was besides to be the case; the members of the Wagner Group were to sign individual contracts with the Ministry, and the full structure was to be liquidated and ceased operations in Russia from 1 July.
And this was besides the actual origin of this revolt of Prigozhyn and his council of commanders, who refused to agree to destruct the full structure and cut off from the stream of government money.
The intent of the full action was to negociate for itself new, better conditions of this change, and everything indicates that in fact the Prigożyn achieved it, and even further, he assured himself full impunity, while the dropping of respective government helicopters and 1 aircraft is, at the same time, only a tiny detail. Just like that, where the wood is chopping chips.
It besides seems that present Russia resembles a more pre-modern country, where powerful oligarchs fight among themselves for money and influence, not looking for a very formal ruler, Putin, who can little, and even less, only formally existing, law that can contact painfully tiny but not oligarchs.
There were always bulldogs fighting under the carpet, but this time they fell out and everyone saw it, and any were amazed and scared.
What are the consequences for Russia? Nothing peculiar is to be expected. Bunty and all kinds, effective and ineffective, attempts to take over power have a long and rich past in Russia and seem to form an immanent part of the functioning of the power strategy in that country. Only since 1991 there have been 4 specified attempts: a coup in 1991, events in 1993, completed with the shooting of the White home in Moscow, a little-known effort at an armed march to Moscow by General Lwo Rochlin in 1997 and the present "March of Justice" of Prigożyn.
Perhaps these events origin more excitement outside Russia than in Russia itself. However, this does not mean that there will be no major consequences in Russia itself. These will happen, but they will likely limit themselves to changes in configuration in the highest circles of power.
It is likely that 1 who would be incorrect to consider that in the game between the Shoyg and the Prigoshine, the second would prevail and his position would be strengthened.
This will not happen, for example, due to the fact that the ineptness of the Shojg, who not only cannot win the war in Ukraine, has not yet been able to halt the emergence of the conflict with the Primozhin, which resulted in an armed revolt in which Putin himself had to engage in mastery, which seemingly showed the smallness of the full strategy of power.
However, the change in the position of Minister of Defence will not happen rapidly so as not to make the impression that Prigożyn was right, but this change must.
Besides, Putin has for a long time signaled a deficiency of acceptance for the Shojg and publically shows him disfavor, as expressed by a very fresh scene, when, having stumbled upon him, while visiting wounded soldiers in a infirmary in Moscow, he did not even greet him and turned his back on him.
Referring to methods of analysis utilized in russian times by alleged cremlinologists, it can be assumed that this event clearly shows the simplification of the position of the Shojg in the hierarchy of power.
It's not an isolated case. For a long time, it is possible to observe a recurring pattern associated with the presence of the Shojg at meetings held in the Kremlin, where he, as minister, participates.
Well, in all these kinds of meetings, The Shoigu appears in civilian clothing, although it is known how crucial he attaches to his uniform an army general with the star of the Hero of Russia's award. seemingly Putin, in a categorical way, had to inform him that at meetings where he is besides present, the Shojgu is to execute only in civilian clothes and without any orders. At the ceremony mentioned above in the clinic, Shojgu tried to break this ban and was, in effect, publically humiliated by Putin.
Cremlinology is an interesting activity, but it is besides time to address the importance of these events for Poland and its surroundings.
A lot of concern has been raised by the news that the Primogyn and its fighters are to be in field camps in Belarus. Many alarming voices were called out that this could pose a large threat to the safety of the Polish border with Belarus, which is simply a very delicate place, anyway.
Soon, however, the Lithuanian authorities must be most concerned, as in Vilnius, in a fewer days, the NATO summit will be launched, that is, the assembly of leaders of all NATO countries, including president Biden.
Meanwhile, an armed group is to be installed just outside of the country, which late occupied 2 million Russian cities and conducted a nearly 800 km rally to Moscow.
Let us look at the situation of Vilnius in this context and the problem of ensuring the safety of the upcoming NATO Summit.
Vilnius itself lies only 30 kilometres from the Belarusian border. In addition, there are respective roads from this border that converge in Vilnius.
In specified circumstances, given the demonstrated capacity of the ‘Wagnera Group’, the implementation of the rally from the Belarusian border to Vilnius, with the control of the airport on the way, does not seem peculiarly difficult.
Let us remember that Vilnius is by far the smaller town than Rostov and Voronezh, each of whom has more than 1 million inhabitants, and that Wagner's Groups were not hard to occupy.
In view of the above, if, during the NATO Summit, any dangerous events on the border between Lithuania and Belarus were recorded, to which the border can be rather easy covered by large forest complexes, the time would should be counted more in minutes than hours.
The assessment of the increased hazard for the Summit, connected with the possible presence of Wagner Group in Belarus, was most likely made and the consequence was the decision to send Poland to Lithuania, a military contingent, composed of 75 peculiar forces and workers together with 3 helicopters.
It doesn't seem like much, given that only during the Moscow rally did the Primogyn forces shoot down six helicopters and 1 aircraft of Russian national forces. specified concerns are most likely more common due to the fact that on Saturday, it was reported that 1,000 WP soldiers and 200 units of equipment were moving east of the country as part of the Safe Podlasie action.
It is our large commitment to ensuring the safety of the NATO summit in Vilnius, most likely expected by our partners, but it must be a surprise, due to the fact that Germany is the framework country for NATO forces in Lithuania, and it is Germany, together with Lithuanian forces, that should, above all, guarantee the safety of the NATO summit in Vilnius.
However, this kind of real German action is not visible, but they discount their political influence in Lithuania, and a fewer days ago Germany signed a peculiar agreement with Lithuania on the rules of the presence of the armed forces of both states in their territories. This is to be the basis for stationing, in the distant future, the full German brigade in Lithuania.
In addition, the Lithuanian government purchases the largest arms in Germany. It's about the transportation of Vilkas and PzH 2000 self-propelled infantry trucks.
It turns out that Germany is the main partner and ally of Lithuania, but in terms of securing the prestigious, for Lithuanian authorities, events, this is to be ensured by Poles. In return for this, the Lithuanian authorities will inactive most likely not quit the liquidation of schools of the Polish number in Lithuania.
Perhaps it would be time to consider changing this unusual paradigm of our relation with another countries, where we are so frequently utilized without caring for our own interests. possibly that's enough?
Stanisław Lewicki
