In the organization poll for TVN24 PiS and KO have a full of 56 percent. In a presidential survey conducted for the WP, Trzaskowski and Nawrocki gather together 58 percent.
If we compare these results with the erstwhile 1 period or 2 studies, we will see that the 2 biggest players are again starting to suck oxygen to everyone else, although they inactive deficiency much until the time of glory, erstwhile both groups or their representatives took a full of 70% of the votes (in the 1st circular of the 2020 election Duda and Trzaskowski had 73 percent, in 2019 PiS and PO collected 71 percent).
Recent investigation by the Institute of marketplace and Social investigation for "Politics" shows that the dispute between Tusk and Kaczyński ceases to affect Poles, as much as 78 percent of us consider it harmful to the country.
An interesting phenomenon was besides observed by network analysts from the Res Futura collective after the debates in Koński – as it was written, "Since 2015 social media in Poland has strengthened a message based on conflict and polarized organization arrangement. The April 11 debate brought a breakthrough. For the first time in a decade, the algorithm mechanism, building a natural political division, stopped working. Comments massively rejected a message based on fear and polarization".
Of course, we can cry out that the investigation in which Poles gave vent to their frustration caused by the fighting of organization tribes was many, and our fatigue of this state of things has already been diagnosed and described many times, even in the study "The Face of Polish Radicalization" 2 years ago, as many as 87 percent of Poles dreamed of reducing divisions and tensions between Poles.
After which any elections come and again the cards are handed out to the Platform and the PiS, and Poles criminally at the urns defend themselves under 1 or the another flag and in full only a fewer are looking for another representation.
Only now the general couple has entered this game: time and biology
The point is, forgive the indelicateness that leaders are getting older, which is especially evident from the sick Kaczyński. His leadership no longer delights all PiS voters. Polarization is beginning to hurt alternatively than stimulate emotions – leaders see it, hence many attempts on both sides to resurrect polarization in an ancient, large form.
Kaczyński's quarrel with Gierty was said to have been calculated for this procedure, only the situation got out of control to the president of PiS. erstwhile the minister of athletics calls Kaczyński a mobster, and the Prime Minister notes that the speech of the chief of Polish diplomacy aroused rage in the Kremlin and in Nowogrodzka, these are the ideas of how to bring the conflict back on almost exclusively between 2 large armies.
"Dudy needs even more polarization between him and Komorowski" – wrote an advisory writer of the portal wpolityka.pl in March 2015, now it is the same – and PiS, and KO request even more polarization.
I mentioned that the end of polarization was forecast many times and that the political cemetery was full of those who promised to rise capital on it. Szymon Hołownia powerfully placed on this message, but in 2020 it was not yet this moment, and now, although he inactive repeats it ("Poland needs something another than the fight of 2 sick churches") is erstwhile that it is part of the ruling coalition, 2 that lost political freshness. For a minute it seemed that it was a weakening attraction of mainly 1 side of the duopol, PiS, carrying a Confederate candidate towards the pass with Nawrock.
But the last fewer days and deepening as the May election deadline approached, polarization pushed Mentzen to the defensive. Which means it won't be the run that's gonna challenge the axis of the dispute, known for 2 decades. That would only happen if Nawrocki didn't enter the second round.
Yeah, let's get back to the beginning for a while.
It's 2005. Almost simultaneously, 2 campaigns were held: the presidential and parliamentary. The PiS and the PO, 2 fresh parties formed in 2001, both of the solidarity trunk, wanted to send back to the lamest ruling then remnant of the SLD forces. The division organising Polish politics will then end since 1989: Solidarity and Postcommunity. Symbolically speaking, you can even indicate the exact day of this end, it was on September 14, 2005, erstwhile Vladimir Cimoszewicz withdrew from the fight for the Presidential Palace and in the square of the fight remained Tusk with Lech Kaczyński.
PiS and PO are preparing to form a common government, and during the run they make a pact on non-aggression. In the polls he leads Tusk as a presidential candidate and his group with John Maria Rokita as a premier candidate. But the presidential election will be won by Kaczyński and the PiS will be the first to scope the parliamentary finish.
Later on, the "substantial" negotiations have failed. PiS creates a government with the Self-defense and League of Polish Families, and the PO proceeds to a hard opposition, i.e. a total, due to the fact that this term, utilized today, will be utilized by Donald Tusk at the first gathering of the parliamentary club PO.
This is how this war begins, and as he wrote in the book "About 2 specified as divided Poland" Prof. Antoni Dudek: "It is not clear at what point Tusk and Kaczyński realized that they have just discovered a phenomenal mechanics for managing the political stage, making 1 of them the leader of the opposition. It's been working out large all these years."
Perhaps these elections will be the last in the polarising edition we know. And then the polarity axis will scratch again. What will it look like? No 1 knows today.
