The velocity of the consumption process of this government will shortly be possible to enter in the Guinness evidence book. In the last CBOS study, for July, the other of Tusk's cabinet is as much as 48 percent surveyed (an increase by a percent point compared to last month, an increase by 10 percent points since March), while its supporters are 32 percent, while 17 percent are indifferent.
These results are worse than those recorded by Morawiecki's government just before the failure of power, in October 2023 (33% supporters, 44% opponents). The golden horn that the rulers present were given a year and a half ago falls out of their hands.
How did this happen?
Let's start with a historical anecdote. erstwhile British marshal Bernard Montgomery prepared the foundation of the marketplace Garden operation in 1944 and presented it to allies, General Stanisław Sosabowski consciously spoke and asked, "Where are Germany in this plan?". Because, yes, the Montgomery Germans, as if they hadn't considered it, and those in the Netherlands had 2 armored divisions. He was besides an excellent field marshal of the Walther Model.
Let us now return to the winter of 2023, erstwhile the Tusk government is sworn in and, in addition to the successful yet inept takeover of TVP, is going into waiting mode at the end of Andrzej Duda's term. Something seems to be happening, but the closer we get to the presidential election, the more we look forward to it, and the little the work results.
As if the presumption was such: we crawl through any of these respective months, and then, with president Trzaskowski, we decision out of the hoof, we make poll losses, we regain trust and support disappointed by the erstwhile stagnation of voters. But where was the PiS candidate's triumph in this plan, which could not be ruled out in advance, and what seems to have been a prioritized?
I don't think this script was taken into account at all, initially not truly likely, which does not mean that the impossible, given that the parliamentary elections won the Law and Justice, the government did not make only by deficiency of coalition capacity, and after losing it retained advanced public support.
Besides, Trzaskowski himself, as well as his staff, continued to say that he would "be for razor blades", and this message carried not certainty, but uncertainty of the result! The hazard of failure! but I guess no one, possibly for the sake of their well-being, evidently didn't accept it.
Hence, after the second round, chaos prevailed, and the insignificant moods swept over the politicians of all members of the coalition of groups. I haven't been able to talk to any power camp politician (and I'm talking to many) since 1 June, who would have any hope for a successful political turn of events in the future.
"Weak", "drama", "it looks bad" – I hear it
The deficiency of plan B - in case of election disaster - resulted in a telenovela entitled "reconstruction", preceded by a short movie about a vote of confidence. Donald Tusk thus acted in accordance with the old software, for a long time without updating.
About the debate on the motion for a vote of assurance no 1 remembers, the government reconstructed yet next week has small chance to reflect (who cares about this reconstruction, but journalists and the people curious in the position?).
Failure, weakening polls, 2 of the 4 coalition entities under the electoral threshold, or yet the ghost of the future PiS coalition with the Confederate has not sobered anyone, on the contrary!
There are inactive interior rampart wars and this exchange of tricks, spites, fights on the portal X can't stand it anymore, due to the fact that it's like playing in a sandbox. Simon Hołownia, who seemed to be able to play an equal game with Adam Bielan and Jarosław Kaczyński, added his deep crisis, and was played in concert.
Still amazing is the failure of the ruling signs in heaven and earth. Since the summertime of last year, with monthly regularity, due to the fact that after each subsequent CBOS survey, checking support for the government, it has been swarming in the media with statements by experts and publicists about Tusk's office, which will be Trzaskowski's stone around his neck. What? Nothing!
Nobody came up with the thought to separate, cut the candidate off from the image load. No 1 reacted at all, quoting the classics, of course. For months there have been repeated warnings that taking over the agenda of populists does not consequence in an increase in support for liberal-left parties, which propose the same as populists, only in a light-stiff version, there is already quite a few technological literature on this subject.
For example, a group of researchers has analysed the results of more than hundreds of 1976-2017 elections in 12 European countries in terms of the communicative on immigrants, on which populists and radicals are built. They concluded that the Danish case six years ago, erstwhile the Social Democracy took over the anti-immigration program of the utmost right-wing Danish People's organization and thus led to its failure was an exception alternatively than a rule.
The full argument could be translated into a question that Jean-Marie Le Pen erstwhile asked: Why would people choose a copy if it was the original? Meanwhile, in the substance of the Border defence Movement, the government bent under the force of Mr. Bąkiewicz. Will that aid the government? No way!
Persecution. The word-key of our political times, domestically and interchangeably besides called "adventure"
It would seem that after the PiS class with the classics of the genre, or 500 plus (we promise in the campaign, in September 2015, then we win the election, we adopt the bill, and since April 2016 we start payoffs), everyone has learned that people want to feel the change for the better (and it's not just about transfers), and that they number on making promises that they no longer treat them like pears on willow.
Yes, I know, president Duda and his veto. But the government did not let the president to push the brakes frequently, due to the fact that most of the crucial cases for voters did not have a chance to leave the parliament. I can bet dollars against rotten nuts that if not, the climate around the government would besides be different, and Rafał Trzaskowski would gain a serious argument for his presence in the palace.
Meanwhile, in a moment, the promises of the 15th X coalition will want to realise Karol Nawrocki, following Trump's footsteps - the president of the United States taped his signature after taking office and Nawrocki will submit a task for the task from 6 August.
Everything above seems apparent and simple as building a brick. It was described in pages and discussed on the air. But I don't think the government saw it that way. The question that I don't know the answer to, and I have doubts that the government itself knows it, is: what is the government going to do next? Bo, Huston, you have a problem.
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