The latest polls of the Late Poll Ipsos show that in the first circular of the presidential election in the lead is Rafał Trzaskowski from the Civic Coalition, winning 31.2% of the vote. He was followed by Karol Nawrocki of Law and Justice, who received 29.7% of support.
The 3rd place in the election was taken by Sławomir Mentzen, winning 14.5 percent of the vote. According to the Ipsos poll, further positions were taken: Grzegorz Braun – 6.3 percent, Simon Holown – 4.9 percent, Adrian Zandberg – 4.8 percent, and Magdalena Biejat – 4.1 percent. Thus, the Holovnia overtook Zandberg, although erstwhile polls indicated that he would be the fifth.
Further places in the poll were taken: Joanna Senyszyn with a score of 1.4 percent, Krzysztof Stanowski – 1.3 percent, Marek Jakubiak – 0.8 percent, Artur Bartoszewicz – 0.5 percent, Maciej Maciak – 0.4 percent, and Marek Woch, who received 0.1 percent of the vote.
The survey is based on data from 90% of the electoral commissions in which Ipsos conducted the survey on Sunday. Earlier summertime poll results, published around midnight, included only 50% of the commissions. The larger scope of data translates into a more precise forecast. The margin of mistake in this survey is about 1 percent point.
Turnout
Initial information from the Sunday polling stations did not announce as much mobilisation of citizens as the data from the summertime poll revealed. Although the 2023 attendance evidence was not beaten, the score was better than during the 2020 presidential election. The estimated turnout in the summertime poll was 66.8 percent, which, if confirmed officially, would mean the highest score in the first circular of the 1990 presidential election.
Record attendance in the Polish elections was recorded in 2023, erstwhile MPs and senators were elected, reaching 74.38 percent.
Who's gonna win the second round?
As no of the candidates won the absolute majority of the votes, a second circular of elections will take place on Sunday, 1 June.
One of the last studies prior to the election was conducted by Opana24 on behalf of RMF FM. If Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki faced in the second round, they would gain 48.5% and 44.4% of the votes respectively. 7.1% of respondents did not declare who they would vote for on June 1.
From the poll Opinion24 for Newsweeka, published on Sunday 11 May, it follows that in the second circular of presidential elections Rafał Trzaskowski from the Civic Coalition would win 53 percent of the vote, while Karol Nawrocki, supported by the Law and Justice, would receive 45 percent of the vote.
