"In our media simulations, that 72-73 percent is the ceiling where Trzaskowski's chances begin to grow rather drastically. That is, akin to what happened erstwhile it came to attendance in 2023 - Daniel Pers, head of the Pers Election team, said "Guest of Events". "Any lower attendance makes Karol Nawrocki more and more likely to become president," he added.
Daniel Pers In Polsat News, he noted the minimum difference in the polls between candidate KO Rafał Trzaskowski and supported by PiS Karol Nawrocki. - The honest verdict is - you can't foretell the winner - said the analyst in "Guest of Events".
SEE: How will the votes of the candidates from I turn? Latest poll
Presidential election 2025. Turnout and election result
Pers explained that the election would be decided by turnout. If it exceeds a certain ceiling, it will most likely win Trzaskowski. In his opinion, if the election goes below about 70 percent of Poles, Karol Nawrocki may be almost certain of the victory.
SEE: "Clean candidate". Nawrocki's chief of staff calls Trzaskowski for testing
- I'm sorry. In our simulations the median, that 72-73 percent is the ceiling, where Trzaskowski's chances begin to grow rather drastically. So akin to what happened erstwhile it came to attendance in 2023 - said the analyst.
- I'm sorry. On the another hand, all lower turnout makes Karol Nawrocki more and more likely to become president," he said.
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How will Mentzen voters vote?
The lead asked his guest how the 3rd electorate would behave at the candidate's rate. Let us remind that Sławomir Mentzen received 14.81 percent of the vote in the 1st circular of the presidential election.
- I'm sorry. Among Confederate voters from 2023 and now for Sławomir Mentzen there are quite a few Trzaskovsky voters from 2020 - he said.
SEE: A poll before the second circular of the presidential election. How will Mentzen voters vote?
- I'm sorry. What is different in these elections is the belief that Rafał Trzaskowski is now an establishment candidate, and Karol Nawrocki is an opposition candidate," Pers noted.
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