In the erstwhile text on the hypothetical relation between the US-Federal Republic of Germany, we established that Berlin had alternatively irretrievably lost its imperial position, but it is inactive and surely will stay so, the local power. Only by going in that direction
The Germans gotta sign on to individual stronger. We have so discussed various hypotheses relating to the relation with the United States. A second anticipation is closer cooperation with Russia. First, let us ask ourselves a preliminary question: is it truly possible? And if so: under what circumstances is it within the scope of the real possible of both parties? However, these 2 conditions must be fulfilled: Germany will be able to destruct its deep ties with the States and should do so itself.
But Berlin itself will never accomplish specified a position unless due to geopolitical dynamics, erstwhile the White home is forced to retreat from the European front. In another situation, the state of American-German relations will actually be preserved, about at today's level. Only with the presumption of a comparative weakening of America is the task opened to entrust Germany with the function of the chief vassal of the empire. And only a complete defeat of Washington – and only then – will let fresh quality in Russian-German relations. The ancient rivals will face each another again. The fundamental question, then, is whether the relation based on the desire to accomplish the agreed objectives together, or vice versa, will there be fields of strong competition and possible conflicts?
Let us note, and note that the current disparity of military forces between the 2 countries is so crucial to the disadvantage of Berlin that there is no mention of analogues from both planet wars. Thus, assuming that Germany will be able and willing, Russia will hold the key to further developments. This in turn depends on her aspirations for Europe. What they truly are and where they see the boundary of their sphere of influence. Under what conditions, then, can Moscow cooperate with Germany? We must now presume that the Kremlin will accept German dominance of Western Europe, an area called the old European Union. This is the natural course of affairs after the U.S. withdrawal.
But what about Central Europe, east Europe and the Balkans? And here, certainly, the red line for Moscow will be the countries that erstwhile formed the russian Union, including and especially Ukraine. If Germany starts fighting for Ukraine, relations between Russia and them will turn into confrontational struggles: i.e. the Kremlin will submit its claims for the sovereignty over Poland and the Czech Republic. In the Balkans, the issue is rather simple, due to the fact that they are divided into Western and Eastern. Returning to Central Europe and demarcation of emerging geopolitical large spaces, it will not be linked to strong tensions.
So, in fact, the problem of Poland remains. What about her? We should want that the Kremlin would be strong adequate and determined adequate and for its strategical depth it would not quit its aspirations in Warsaw. In specified circumstances, Poland should become the buffer state needed in this function and for Russia and for Germany. A kind of grey zone, which is unnecessarily feared by Polish messians. There is simply a chance, if all these things go in the direction presented.
Antoni Koniuszewski
Poland, No. 5-6 (28.01-4.02.2024)
