In the latest PSL poll and Poland 2050, erstwhile they were together, they achieved 5.1% of support. It's not a disaster – it's a tragedy. Paraphrased by a gag from the times of the Polish People's Republic, it can be said that the 3rd Way stood on the abyss and took another step forward.
– Yesterday (June 17 – author) At the ultimate Council, we summarized the series of elections we agreed to. The 3rd Road was an election project, since we have separate clubs in parliament from the beginning, it is not 1 organization organism, it is 2 different groups – stated in 1 of the interviews Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, president of the Polish People's Party. – We have talked to the head of Poland 2050 Simon Holovnia how to conduct this final. It was expected to be a small different, to be honest. We had a discussion yesterday, on 28 June, the Polish National Council 2050 will be held. After that, we were expected to go out together and say that this phase is closed..
But it happened differently. Rumor has it that the PSL's exit from the Simon Holownia coalition has learned from the media. But he made a good face for the bad game. – The decision of the ultimate Council of our coalition – PSL – on the actual completion of the 3rd Way task is accepted with knowing and gratitude – wrote Holovnia on platform X. – I realize due to the fact that we agreed on a series of 4 elections. Thankfulness, due to the fact that we have both met each other's commitments, and loyalty and trust are fundamental in politics.
But I don't think anyone believed him. Polish 2050 politicians did not hide bitterness. – We went our own way, without any credit... – wrote Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, Minister of Funds and Regional Policy.
Information about the breakup became a political sensation and amazed even politicians of the Civic Platform. – I was amazed by these signals – said on TVN Grzegorz Schetyna, erstwhile president of the Platform.
A lost chick?
The divorce with the PSL may prove to be a real disaster for Szymon Hołownia, who, despite the coalition agreement, is said not to be willing to quit the Marshal's staff to Vladimir Czarzaste. While remaining in the coalition with the PSL, he had a good chance to keep it. Now these chances are illusory and depend only on Donald Tusk's political calculation. Theoretically, the 3rd Way was a large force. She had a marshal and Deputy talker of the Sejm, 2 Vice Marshals of the Senate, 64 MPs, 12 Senators, Deputy Prime Minister, 6 Constitutional Ministers. But it's just a theory. The Ludovians and the Holown organization had nothing in common. Nothing but the desire to keep your stools. Poland 2050 is specified a fake Civic Platform, and if so, voters like to vote for the original. The harrow shortly found that show-business and politics were completely different activities. In his group are either political diletants or escapees from the Platform or wider Civic Coalition. It seemed that Michał Kobosko would be the brain, the ideology of the formation. Only in Poland 2050 there is no thought of its members, so an ideologist is not needed. Kobosko was a journalist, and even the head of the well-known weekly newsweek and Wprost, which, however, had already been over. Writing about politics or writing is not the same as real politics. I dare say that the activity in the Association of Polish Students or the Independent Association of Students in times of transformation (where it was essential to show a greater political talent than in the current parties) would give him more cognition in this respect than all academic teachings, but Kobosko did not have specified experience. No wonder he went to the Europarliament.
There are 2 experienced politicians: Paweł Zalewski and Michał Grammar. but the 2 gentlemen from many furnaces ate bread. In particular, Zalewski has undergone an awesome conflict trail: Forum of the Democratic Right, Democratic Union, Conservative Party, Conservative Coalition, Conservative-People's Party, Law and Justice (former vice president), Civic Platform, Poland 2050. Is specified a man able to kidnap anyone, be a function model, a leader with authority?
What are the advantages of Poland 2050? possibly just the faces of Joanna Mucha and Alexandra Leo, and that's not adequate to be the 3rd force.
Poland 2050 can chess Donald Tusk with 32 sabers, but in practice it resembles a situation erstwhile you have 1 bullet in a revolver.
If Poland 2050 does not agree to the reconstruction of the government, which will most likely lose respective positions, then Tusk may decide to shorten the word of office of the Sejm. However, specified a step would only be possible if the Civic Coalition had a crucial advantage over the Law and Justice.
In fact, the only question that the Holovnia must answer is: will his organization enter the Sejm alone after the 2027 elections? The answer is no.
The only chance for its members is to be on the lists of the Citizens' Coalition and a conviction to the grace of Tusk.
The worst situation would be parliamentarians who were members of the Platform or entered the Sejm from the list of Civic Coalition, and then left for Poland 2050. These are MPs: Michał Grammar, Paulina Hennig-Kloska, Joanna Mucha, Ireneusz Raś, Mirosław Suchoń and Tomasz Zimoch. Tusk, like Kaczyński, is very memorable, but even longer than PiS president holds a grudge.
Okay, but not hopelessly.
In a somewhat better situation is the PSL. Since 1990, this organization has been guided by the motto: to live better (of course members of its own organization and their families). Therefore, for the people, the sense of existence is to keep positions in state-controlled companies and local governments. PSL has more options than Holownia party.
It may stay in the coalition, but with increasingly mediocre government ratings the chances of exceeding the 5% electoral threshold will decrease.
He may come out of the coalition, but then the Prime Minister will remove the people from all government agencies and companies of the Treasury.
He can come out of the current coalition and enter the coalition with the PiS, and possibly besides with the PiS and the Confederacy. In the second case, however, it will be at the mercy of Jarosław Kaczyński. 1 of the biggest opponents of specified a solution is Deputy Marshal Piotr Zgorzelski, but it is known that views (especially in PSL) are to change them.
Much will depend on president Władysław Kosiniak-Kamish. What is the link between the doctor from the nomenklatur household of Kraków and the doctorate with the electorate from the village and tiny towns?
Prior to the 2023 election, PiS was tempted by Kosiniak-Kamisha as Prime Minister. The leader of the peoples refused to do so out of fear, as he is most likely the most shaky chief of the peoples since they switched the ZSL sign to PSL.
A people's convention will be held in November. It is the only parliamentary organization in which democratic procedures inactive apply. In the seismic corridors you can hear rumors (in which we evidently do not believe) that the Prime Minister has any hooks on the Deputy Prime Minister.
Who could replace Kosiniak-Kamish? The first on the list is, of course, the indestructible Waldemar Pawlak, president of the PSL Chief Council, who served twice for 13 years. Problem is, there's a akin unverified rumor about the erstwhile prime minister that Kosiniaku-Kamish is. There are inactive vice-presidents in the long distance: ambitious Krzysztof Hetman and Adam Jarubas, erstwhile a candidate of the populace for the office of President. Nor should we forget Deputy Marshal Piotr Zgorzelski, who serves as an crucial secretary in the Chief Executive Committee.
The Polish People's organization has money, structures, as many members as PiS and PO combined, but has the problem that there are no voters who vanish at an alarming rate. People always came out of the top oppression, but if they hadn't entered the Sejm in 2027, it could have meant their end.
Tusk and Kaczyński have been striving for polarization since 2005, which has given them so many triumph times, making the remaining parties marginalized. Therefore, no of the main leaders will worry erstwhile Poland 2050 and the Polish People's organization vanish from the political stage.
