The end of Syria as we know it

defence24.pl 7 months ago
At the time of writing this article, rumors that Asad is dead are not yet confirmed, but most likely he did not scope Latakia (at the time of publication it is already known that the Russian TASS agency informed of his asylum in Moscow). Everything besides indicates that the Allavians decided not to defy in the coastal strip with Latakia and Tartus, where Russian bases are located. Does this mean the end of Russian presence in Syria? Perhaps, although to a large degree it depends on the arrangements between Russia and Turkey. If specified arrangements took place, Russia may not keep these bases anyway if another factions, especially Hajat Tahrir Ash-Sham (HTS) reject them. And while the vast majority of Syrians have a negative attitude towards Russia, a large part of them do not want the country to be dominated by Turkey and the pro-Turkish jihadists of the Syrian National Army (SNA), enjoying a very bad reputation (as opposed to HTS). SNA became celebrated for its plunder, deficiency of discipline and murder. This increases HTS' chances of dominance, despite its jihadist provenance rooted in Al Qaeda. No substance how the Russian military presence in Syria is resolved, the situation created can be utilized propagandaally by both Russia and Russia. On the 1 hand, if the developments take place according to a black script (massacre, chaos, war between factions) then Russia will blame the West as the alleged architect of these events. On the another hand, pro-Russian authoritarian regimes (including in peculiar Iran and Shiite forces in Iraq (mated by the propaganda of Russian Ambassador Kutrashev)) should have a clear signal that Russia is an unreliable ally and that it is simply a mistake to put it on.
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