New poll Opinion24 gives the Civic Coalition first place, but the most crucial information is elsewhere. PiS falls to 17.2%, the Confederacy is right behind it, and improvement Plus Mateusz Morawiecki crosses the threshold. The Polish right does not disappear. She's regrouping.
KO leads, but no reason to triumph
By poll Opinion24 for Virtual Poland The Citizens' Coalition can number on 30.3% support. This is the first place, but at the same time a decrease of 1 percent point compared to July measurement. Donald Tusk remains the leader of the stakes, but this is not a image of the march on unchangeable power.
The point of the survey lies on the right side of the stage. Law and Justice has 17.2% and loses as much as 5.6 percent points. The Confederacy reaches 15.3%, which is very close to Jarosław Kaczyński's party. The Confederation of the Polish Crown obtains 9%, Left 7 percent and improvement Plus Mateusz Morawiecki 5.3 percent. Under the threshold were together with 4.8 percent, Poland 2050 with 1.3% and PSL with 1.1 percent.
Right divided, but numerically strong
If you sum up the PiS, the Confederation, the Confederation of the Polish Crown and improvement Plus, there are 46.8% indications. This is not the ready majority of the parliament, due to the fact that the poll is not the election, and the mathematics of tickets depends on districts, attendance and thresholds. But the political signal is clear: the right-wing electorate did not evaporate. He crashed into a fewer centers.
For a national and conservative camp, it's a informing and a chance. Warning, due to the fact that organization wars can turn real possible into a failure of parking tickets. A chance due to the fact that voters are looking for a stronger representation in matters of sovereignty, migration, safety and economical policy. That's why the earlier a divided poll in the PiS It wasn't just an episode. He showed a trend that now comes back with more force.
Development Plus passes the threshold
The most symbolic is the consequence of improvement Plus. The formation of Mateusz Morawiecki, treated only late as personnel and expert facilities, in this survey exceeding the 5% threshold. This does not automatically mean that there is simply a permanent batch capable of playing alone. However, it means that any voters let a right-wing script without full dominance of Novogrodzka.
For Jarosław Kaczyński, it is simply a strategical problem. For years, PiS built the position of the only large camp on the right. Now it has competition from 3 directions: the free-national Confederation, the sovereign Confederation of the Polish Crown and the Morawiecki project, which tries to manage the voters of more technocratic and state-owned. We've already written that Plus improvement can be a polling illusionBut the latest consequence is to take this task more seriously.
Tusk coalitions at the bar
The weakness of Poland 2050 and PSL shows the another side of the problem. The ruling camp cannot trust solely on KO to keep first place. If the appetizers do not exceed the threshold, the seismic arithmetic becomes violent. That's why current support of the organization in 2026 you request to read not as a ranking of prestige, but as a question of the ability to make majority.
The survey was conducted 3-5 August 2026 on a typical example of 1001 adult residents of Poland. It's a poll, so it's not a conviction. However, it gives a warning. The Polish political scene is entering a phase where organization signs alone mean little than the ability to build a credible offer: sovereignty, safe and pressure-resistant Brussels and ideological whims of liberal elites.
Rate for Poland
For Poles, the comfort of organization leaders is not at stake. The stakes are whether after the next election a majority will be created able to defend borders, wallets, household and state continuity. The opinion24 poll shows that the right-wing voter has more and more addresses, but fragmentation can be as dangerous as weakness.
If the right wants to truly halt Tusk's liberal course, it must talk concrete language: security, lower life costs, defence of sovereignty, opposition to the federalisation of the European Union and the end of the disregard of average people. Just individual disputes aren't enough. The nation is not an audience for the ambition of leaders.
Source: Virtual Poland / Opinion24; Facts.
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