KO may lose power. Troubles of the 3rd Way

If elections to the Sejm were held next Sunday, 61.5 percent of the respondents would participate. 37.5% do not intend to vote, and 1% have not yet decided. According to the poll, the majority of votes would be obtained by the Civic Coalition, for which 34.9% of respondents would vote (an increase of 3.9 percent points compared to the end of March study).

Second place belongs to Law and Justice. 28.8% of respondents voted for Jarosław Kaczyński's organization (an increase of 2.3 percent points). The podium closes the Confederation, which is supported by 16.4 percent of respondents (support remains stable). The Left would besides enter the Sejm with 5 percent support.

Third Way Problems

Outside parliament, there would be a 3rd Way (6.9 percent, below the 8% threshold for the coalition) and organization Together (0.5 percent of support). 7.5 percent of voters are indecisive. This is simply a crucial decrease compared to the erstwhile study, then 13.9% did not know who he wanted to vote for.

Virtual Poland, based on the electoral calculator created by Prof. Jarosław Flis from the Jagiellonian University, converted the percent support into the number of seats in the Sejm. It shows that KO would get 202 tickets, PiS — 163, Confederacy — 84, and Left — 11.

It follows that KO would not be able to regulation either alone or in a coalition with Levica. The majority requires 231 Members in the Sejm. The power could be taken over by the coalition of the PiS and the Confederacy, which would have 247 tickets.

The survey was carried out 4-6 April 2025 with a mixed CAVI and CATI method on a typical example of 1000 people.