When the U.S. unwittingly prolongs the war, Russia explores the ground. "Putin wants to turn Europe into an obedient vassal"

Since 2022, they have not prepared to support a long-term war. They weren't prepared for it either. Donald Trump. However, it is not clear how the Americans will withdraw. If Europeans and Ukraine inactive have a chance to buy an urgently needed weapon, it will be easier to retreat than if the Americans introduced an embargo on supplies.

Do you see any strategy in US operations?

Z The Trump is that he repeats what the last caller told him. If it is Putin, it is entirely on the side of Russia. If it is Emmanuel Macron or Keir StarmerIt's remembering again. But it only lasts until he talks to individual else.

In fresh weeks everyone has been talking about peace — even Russia. But in fact, it seems that peace is more distant than ever. How do you justice that?

Yes, we're very far from peace. Serious negotiations will only be possible if Putin no longer sees a chance to win the war and accomplish his goal of subjugating Ukraine by military force. This is presently improbable due to the large uncertainty origin of the United States. This means that the current U.S. action importantly prolongs the war. This is precisely the other of what leads to peace.

Recently, there has been a proposal from respective sides to take extended diplomatic action: Ukraine, Russia, Europe, the United States. Is that a reasonable approach?

Putin evidently knows that Volodymyr Zelenski has the advantage if Europeans sit at the negotiating table. Therefore, he would most likely reject this proposal. Then everything would depend on what Trump did. But until Putin can settle everything militarily, he will not engage in negotiations and will always find excuses why they are not beneficial to him at the moment. Zelenski and Europeans tried to explain this to Trump: it is not Ukraine that is the origin of the deficiency of conversation. The problem is that this reality does not be in Trump's mind.

Russia presents the war in Ukraine as a local and even interior conflict. At the same time, Russian propaganda prepares the ground for war against Europe. On Baltic Sea This is far beyond propaganda. Is Europe straight threatened?

Europe is simply a second objective. The result of the war in Ukraine will depend on how long the Russians will request to consolidate their forces. However, it can be assumed that Europeans will be next in line. What the Russians are presently doing in the Baltic Sea is investigating the cohesion of NATO and Europe. These are force demonstrations to research to what degree this cohesion can be undermined.

In this context, the word "hybrid war" frequently appears. Isn't that besides idealization?

The problem is that the word "hybrid" has become a slogan for everything that does not scope the threshold of actual war. In fact, it would mean that a state entity is referred to as a non-state entity, but acts in the interests and interests of the state authorities. If Russia now sends combat aircraft, stops tankers or sends border troops FSB, it is evidently not a hybrid, it is not masked — the Russian state is trying to see how far it can go.

The argument against the direct threat to Europe is frequently that Russia is already overwhelmed by the situation in Ukraine.

Then individual explain to me where Europeans have 800,000 people in uniform — ready to go. On paper Europe has more tanks and dense equipment than Ukraine, but they are not ready for use. In 2022, the Russian army entered the border with 190,000 soldiers. Now there's 650 grand. The Ukrainians had about 250 thousand, now it's 880 thousand. But if I look at the NATO consequence Force, it's 1 division, and with logistics, it gives 15,000 soldiers. Mobilization is simply a process that does not happen overnight. Secondly, the Russians have undergone a drone revolution and Europeans have not. After this war ended, the Russians would have a crucial advantage. Then the question would arise: would Americans inactive be on the side of Europeans? Looking at Trump, I have large doubts about that. Russia will not stand by and wait for us to catch up.

Viacheslav Madiievskyi / AFP

Ukrainian soldier in Kharkiv Region, 18 May 2025.

From Russia's point of view, Ukraine has a historical dimension. all claim to be an empire depends on Kiev. What does Putin want?

Russia wants to be a planet power and a dominant military force in Europe. Putin wants revenge for the dissolution of the russian Union. This means restoring the erstwhile territories and destroying the enemy who destroyed the empire — a united, democratic Europe. All of this Moscow presented already in December 2021: it wants to make a European order convenient for Russia, which grants it privileges, and the remainder of the continent turns into obedient vassals. Order in which the regulation of law and democracy no longer matter.

In fresh days, it is frequently said that decisive action must now be taken and imposed sanctionsWhich will truly hurt. So the question is: what has happened so far?

The sanctions adopted so far are rather effective in terms of their full number. The problem is that they were introduced gradually. The authorities in Moscow have never put besides much force on them to solve this problem. The second point is that the enforcement of sanctions rests with the United States. In the US, sanctions for infringements are much higher than in Europe. Moreover, supervision is more precise and sanctions besides have extraterritorial effects — even a European company that supplies goods from Europe to Russia can be held accountable in the United States. This is not the case for European sanctions. Furthermore, if there were no adequate US sanctions for fresh EU packages, their enforcement would be solely up to European safety authorities and courts. And these aren't very effective. It is likely that many companies will say, "We are taking this risk."