The unexpected withdrawal of Russia from Chersonia completed on 11 November provoked anger and even despair among Russians, while joy among Ukrainians and in the West, where this is portrayed as a triumph of Ukraine – falsely military but truly political. This event seems to confirm what Western propaganda has said for months – that Russia is already losing, that Ukraine will win this war by pushing Russia beyond its borders from 2013.
It might be. But it may not be.
I want to remind you of 1 crucial thing: We don't know what's truly going on. no of us, civilians deprived of access to classified information, satellite intelligence analysis, listening and intelligence data, have any thought what's actually happening on the front line or – even more so – Why. First of all, we don't know what is the real state of the fighting organization forces – which suffered losses in people and equipment, how many fresh equipment and people received, what is morale in the troops, what is available and prepared in the back, what back talks are going on, etc. Thus, information about the seizure by 1 of the parties to 1 or another localities provided by the media is frequently not questioned by the other, so it can be assumed that this is real information – and this is available to us. But the data on the state of power, plans, behind-the-clock negotiations are not available to us – if something is even given officially about almost surely is untruthful, and in any case we do not have a chance to separate how far from this fact it is.
It is worth noting historical analogies: we now know as much as the average Englishman, Frenchman or German knew about what was happening in 1941 or 1942 (about which I've already written). Information about getting 1 or another town mattered if the village was close and it meant that you had to get away. However, for the assessment of the general situation, this was not much crucial due to the fact that – here I repeat – although as civilians we sometimes have 1 part of the information (as the front line shifted) we do not have the other, more important, so what is the state of the fighting forces and their intentions. Yes, in time there are large trends, due to the fact that these are the ways to hide, but until the Ukrainian or Russian military defeats a truly crucial distance – or there will be a ceasefire and the beginning of peace talks or the surrender of 1 organization – we, civilians, it is very hard to decently measure the situation. Regardless of the education or position of “expert” in the media, we simply do not have a real image of the situation.
Let us add that I do not think that the most crucial persons in the country – or alternatively this attrap that serves us as a state – or possibly besides alleged "services". Without their own satellite reconnaissance or their own intelligence networks in the battlefield, they must trust on information provided by the “sociants” or intelligence and diplomatic services of the United States, and these transmit what is convenient to them – disinformation of vassals is neither fresh nor unusual.
For this reason, I propose to abstain from the evaluations until any time has elapsed and things will not be resolved. Let us besides be aware that full lightening can only take place a fewer decades after the end of the war (historical analogy again: about the breaking of the German Enigma and the importance of this for the war past of historians and mostly curious civilians only learned in the early 1970s, so more than a 4th century after the end of the war, before it reached the general awareness and textbooks of past passed another decade).
Ukraine's triumph is not yet foregone, nor is Russia's defeat. There are inactive another options, including the fact that the war is theatrical to any degree and Putin and his colleagues are actually playing on the same squad as Biden's controllers and helping us get to the digital prison of the large Reset.
