Cooperation: Małgorzata Czarnik, Paweł Gawryluk
Analysis briefly:
– The last week showed that K. Harris was inactive in the offensive caused mostly by the freshness effect following the withdrawal from Joe Biden's presidential race; in July alone, she raised around $310 million from donors.
– Harris has already formally secured adequate votes of the delagates (in a distant vote) for the Chicago Democratic organization convention; present or next day he is to announce his candidate for vice president.
– More and more polls point to a truly balanced presidential race.
– Donald Trump is on the defensive and trying to get out of it attacking Harris for avoiding contact with the media.
– Trump continues controversial, polarizing rhetoric, among others, by attacking Harris for its mention to its mixed, Indian-Japanese origin.
The Harris run is inactive in the start-up atmosphere
According to a message by Jamie Harrison, president of the National Democratic organization Committee (DNC), issued on 2 August, Kamala Harris has already won adequate votes of delegates to receive the nomination of her party. The distant vote of delegates began on 1 August and will end on 5 August, after which authoritative voting results will be made public. Ceremonial vote will be held at the Chicago convention. Harris announced that she would not accept the nomination until after the vote ended [1].
In the coming days, Harris is to announce the name of his candidate for vice president and appear with him at a Pennsylvania election rally [2]. Theoretically, this is an perfect chance to present the politician of this State Josh Shapiro, who is in the top position of the candidates considered by Harris, as is Senator Mark Kelly (Arizona), politician Tim Walz (Minnesota), Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg, politician Andy Beshear (Kentucky) and politician JB Pritzker (Illinois). At least any of them Harris was expected to meet during a weekend in Washington.3].
This week, Harris has with his candidate for vice president to visit all key states, or Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada [4]. Harris has so far raised crucial backing to run the campaign: according to her run staff only July contributions from donors reached $310 million (of which 200 million were paid during the first week) and in total, its run has 377 million in cash. On the another hand, Trump raised little than 140 million in July alone and has a full of 327 million in cash [5].
Harris' election program has not yet been published, which means that the only sources of cognition about her plans are: Biden's current administration policy and Harris' public statements on various topics. During the Atlanta electoral rally on 30 July, she showed one more time that she intends to usage her prosecutorial experience to aid her prosecute financial criminals, among others, and to solve the problem of mass illegal immigration from Mexico. She announced that if she won, she would push through the draft law on strengthening the border with Mexico and reforming immigration law, which was negotiated in the legislature a fewer months ago and was yet not committed. She repeated a declaration from the Milwaukee rally of July 23rd that building the mediate class would be the mark defining its administration. Again, she announced the fight for the right to abortion – her position on this issue seems to be the biggest advantage over Trump [6].
Harris is tasked, on the 1 hand, to mobilize the Democratic base, and on the another hand to win average and hesitant voters. In fresh days, work within her run has received a number of people who have already worked on the campaigns of Democratic candidates, mainly Barack Obama. David Plouffe was Obama's 2008 run manager, and in the 2012 run he was her leading strategist, formally serving as President's elder advisor. Stephanie Cutter was Obama's replacement run manager in 2012 Mitch Stewart and David Binder besides worked on Obama's campaigns [7]. In turn, run manager Harris is Jen O'Malley Dillon, who worked on Obama's campaigns and was Biden's 2020 run manager and in 2024 before his withdrawal from the race. These nominations mean that the Harris run agenda will be an extension of Biden's programme or earlier Obama.
KTrump ampania: looking for a way out of the defensive
The change of Democratic organization candidate and the freshness effect of Harris made Trump and his run defensive. They effort to get out of it, among others, by attacking the current vice president for avoiding contact with the media arguing that it does not give interviews to the media because, due to the deficiency of rhetorical efficiency, he fears a form of transmission in which he cannot usage a pre-prepared script [8]. As an example, there is an unmistakable message that Harris gave to the media on the Andrews Airport Plate on the night of August 1 on August 2 [9].
Trump has one more time changed his head about the debate of presidential candidates and proposes to organise it on 4 September in FOX News. Harris, on the another hand, stands by the originally planned date of the debate at ABC on September 10. Thus, little than 100 days before the elections, the debate has not yet been agreed [10].
The main subject of last week's Trump run was the interview he gave on 31 July during the yearly National Convention of the Black Journalists Association (NABJ) in Chicago. The conversation took place in an environment hostile to Trump and took on the character of a sharp exchange of views on a number of topics. Trump's message echoed loudly, stating that Harris was inactive building her position on Indian origin a fewer years ago, while she later "turned to black" and now it is unknown "if she is Indian or black." During the interview, Trump frequently avoided concrete answers to software questions (including abortion, economy or the regulation of law) [11]. This interview is improbable to win Trump the favour of black voters and women. JD Vance, Trump's candidate for vice president, in turn pointed out that Trump was not afraid to take hard questions while Harris avoided contact with the media [12].
During a rally in Atlanta on August 3 – which attracted a importantly smaller audience than Harris's rally in the same place a fewer days earlier – Trump one more time showed that the appeal for national unity made after the assassination was only a tactical procedure. In his speech he continued his fierce attacks not only on Harris, but besides on Brian Kemp (current politician of Georgia, who in 2020 did not aid Trump reverse the election result in that state) and his wife [13]. This is simply a very risky decision in the context of elections, as Kemp is simply a very popular politician in his state.
Vance’s JD is simply a major controversy. A number of statements by Vance from the past appeared on the Internet, in which he was critical and sometimes disdainful of those without children. A childless female called it cat ladyThat means a female surviving with cats alternatively of a family.14]. Vance's JD candidate for vice president shows that Trump puts loyalists ahead of politicians who could actually aid him fight for more electorate groups.
Elections for Congress: a complex puzzle
The change of Democratic organization candidate may have any impact on the chances of candidates of this organization in the legislature elections, which are held simultaneously with the presidential election according to the following scheme: all 2 years the full home of Representatives (435 deputies) and 1/3 of the 100-member legislature composition are exchanged. The Republicans presently have a minimum advantage in the lower chamber, while the modest majority in the advanced chamber are the Democrats. In fresh weeks, due to doubts surrounding Biden's candidacy, any Democratic candidates have complained that not changing their party's candidate could harm their chances in elections [15]. These concerns were only partially justified. On the 1 hand, Biden's condition may have harmed candidates in individual states in imagery, on the another hand, they can run based on the success of the current administration.
In the case of the legislature there are Republicans in the offensive. They will most likely keep the current state of possession, and they will win a single legislature mandate in West Virginia, which makes them request to regain 1 mandate at the hands of the Democrats to take control of the higher chamber. They have a good chance to do this due to the fact that in 8 states Democrats have a very tiny lead in the polls (Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Maryland) and may lose their erstwhile mandates [16].
In the case of the home of Representatives, the situation is more hard to foretell as there are as many as 70 mandates across the country, whose current holders may lose to the candidate of the opposing party. In fresh months, the theoretical advantage has been enjoyed by Democrats, but it is assumed that the result of the conflict for the home is not foregone [17]. There are candidates in the elections both to the legislature and to the House, who inactive distance themselves from Harris specified as Jared Golden, a typical from the state of Maine or Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio [18[19].
Surveys
More and more polls indicate that Harris and Trump actually have a very level playing field. According to a survey published by CBS station on August 4, Harris has a 1% advantage over Trump across the country (where Biden has clearly stepped down Trump in fresh months), while in key states there is simply a tie [20]. A leading electoral forecaster will take Harris's lead over Trump at 1.5% across the country. According to a poll by Bloomberg News and Morning Consult published on July 30, Harris ahead of Trump in respective key states: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin. Susquehanna Polling's studio reports that in Pennsylvania, with as many as 19 electorate votes, Harris has a 4 pp. advantage over Trump [21]. Thus, there is simply a trend in the polls, although it should be remembered that K. Harris inactive benefits from the freshness effect.
Bibliography
[1] Alex Seitz-Wald, DNC chair says majority of delegates have voted to give Harris the Democratic nomination, NBC News, 2.08.2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/dnc-chair-says-majority-delegates-voted-give-harris-democrat-nominat-rcna164743.
[2] Holly Otterbein, Eugene Daniels, Harris is holding first rally with moving mate Tuesday in Philadelphia, Politico, 30.07.2024, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/30/harris-first-rally-running-mate-day-philadelphia-00171999.
[3] Jonathan Weisman, Reid J. Epstein, Harris to Interview V.P. Contenders in Final Test of Chemistry, The fresh York Times, 30.08.2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/03/us/politics/harris-running-mate-kelly-walz-shapiro.html.
[4] Holly Otterbein, Eugene Daniels, Harris is hold... op.cit.
[5] Will Weisert, Harris raised $310 million in July, as she looks to reset race against Trump, ABC News, 2.08.2024, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/harris-raised-massive-310-million-july-reset-novembers-112505300.
[6] Remarks by Vice president Harris at a run Event Atlanta, GA, The White House, 30.07.2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/07/30/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-a-campaign-event-atlanta-ga/.
[7] Michael Scherer, Tyler Pager, Harris hires Obama run veterans to join 2024 effort, replating Biden loyalists, The Washington Post, 2.08/2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/02/kamala-harris-hires-new-senior-strategists-campaign-expands-portfolio-others/.
[8] JD Vance, X (formerly Twitter), 4.08.2024, https://x.com/JDVance/status/1820108698314035667.
[9] ‘This is just an extraordinary will to the import of having a president who understands the power of Diplomacy and understands the strength that rests in knowing the importance of Diplomacy and strengthening alliances.’, Remarks by president Biden and Vice president Harris Upon Return of Americans Detained in Russia | Joint Base Andrews, MD, The White House, 1.08.2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/08/01/remarks-by-president-biden-and-vice-president-harris-upon-return-of-americans-detained-in-russia-joint-base-andrews-md/.
[10] Jaden Amos, Trump deals fresh debate with Kamala Harris on Fox News, Axios, 3.08.2024, https://www.axios.com/2024/08/03/trump-harris-debate-abc-fox-news.
[11] Former Pres. Donald Trump Speaks at NABJ convention in Chicago, Access: 4.08.2024, https://www.youtube.com/embed/0pV6ibEvrJM.
[12] JD Vance, X (formerly Twitter), https://x.com/JDVance/status/1818742558421614818.
[13] Josh Dawsey, Marianne LeVine, Trump repeatedly attacks Republican Georgia Gov. Kemp at Atlanta rally, The Washington Post, 3.08.2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/03/donald-trump-brian-kemp-rally-atlanta/.
[14] Andrew Kaczynski, Em Steck, It’s not just ‘cat ladies’: JD Vance has a past of disparaging people without kids, CNN, 30.07.2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/30/politics/kfile-jd-vance-history-disparaging-people-without-kids/index.html.
[15] Zachary Wolf, Democrats feat ‘MAGA trifecta’ if Biden drugs down home and legislature candidates, CNN, 2.07.2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/democrats-biden-congress-what-matters/index.html.
[16] 2024 CPR legislature Race Ratings, 11.07.2024, https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings.
[17] 2024 CPR home Race Ratings, 24.05.2024, https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings.
[18] Andrew Solender, Scoop: home politician “absolutely not” committed to voting for Harris, Axios, 25.07.2024, https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/jared-golden-camala-harris-trump-election.
[19] Manu Raju, Haley Talbot, How Sherrod Brown is navigating Harris’ candidacy in GOP-learning Ohio with legislature control at stake, CNN, 4.08.2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/04/politics/sherrod-brown-bernie-moreno-ohio-sene-race-camala-harris/index.html.
[20] Anthony Salvanto, Jennifer De Pinto, Kabir Khanna, Fred Backus, Boosts in Democratic excitement aid Harris reset the race against Trump— CBS News poll, CBS, 4.08.2024, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-harris-trump-cbs-news/.
[21] Adam Wren, Myah Ward, Jared Mitovich, Trump goes low as Harris gain ground, Politico, 3.08.2024, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/03/trump-harris-georgia-00172560.
