How the US negotiates with Russia. "Russians have Trump worked out"

Łukasz Szpyrka, Interia: Do 2 conversations between Donald Trump – with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenski – bring us closer to the room?

Dr Tomasz Pavluszko: The American and Ukrainian sides declare that they do, but from the Russian side we inactive have no concessions or peaceful announcements. What Putin says looks like a bluff. Russia escalates its demands, but it does not commit itself to anything. Putin felt dominant, and that does not bode well for future peace.

Trump's on the defensive?

– It would seem that the U.S. will be handing out cards, but many opinion leaders present believe that Trump does not dictate the terms. Russia is clearly playing on time. I read Trump and Zelenski as a good face for a bad game.

You said that “what Putin says looks like a bluff.” But does Trump see it?

– Let's look at Trump's statements after talking to Putin. The president of the United States is referring to individuals. He is happy that Putin called him a friend, and he besides hopes that Xi Jinping would like to be his friend. That's not the language of diplomacy. Leaders execute crucial functions, but real players are states. Donald Trump is not only Donald Trump, but represents the United States. So we had quite a few generals, and there were any statements on the mediate East. Meanwhile, the Russians will be happy to grow the agenda of talks, due to the fact that this makes it easier for them to play on time and extend negotiations. And all this only covers the deficiency of specifics on the Ukrainian issue.

Both sides talked about a 30-day halt on critical infrastructure.

– It's no grace, due to the fact that Putin could halt the fire at all. We got a message: the Russians will proceed to bomb, but possibly any targets will spare. I have the impression that Donald Trump as a leader is not truly reading the Russian announcements. However, talks are at specified an early phase that much can change. At any point the Americans may recognise that the Russians do not respect them and these negotiations will end. Today, the U.S. gives Russia any confidence. For respective weeks now, we have seen attempts to communicate with the leaders and unilateral gestures of the US authorities. Trump's most likely counting on his individual relationship, like in business. However, many east European experts are critical of these talks. Russia only respects strength.

A Did Zelenski learn Trump? After the world-famous White home negotiating disaster, the latest statement, issued after the last telephone call, is completely different. Zelenski is grateful, praises, thanks, flatters Trump and the Americans.

– Indeed, Zelenski's message is very flattering. Zelenski saw what options he had on the table and stated that "joining the stronger" and adopting the American patronage was simply realistic. He knows that Europeans can deliver weapons, train people, aid financially, but that's not enough. He besides knows that the Russians will only talk to the Americans, and that's what Lawov said. Russia wants to be at the U.S. main table, just like the Cold War. Zelenski no longer bids as at the White House, but he seems to have accepted that making this agreement dependent on the Americans would be the best strategy for Ukraine.

It's just a strategy that's highly risky and unpredictable.

– The possible failure of these talks will enable the US to return to the wide support of Ukraine. There's no sign Putin's trying to deescalate. Russian troops proceed to push, rockets and drones fly, and there is no good will. The past fewer weeks have looked like asking Putin for a gesture. Putin prefers to stall due to the fact that he's already gained a lot, and friendly gestures to the Russians mean weakness. The Russians are trying to extract any weaknesses in their opponent's character and will effort to exploit it. I think Donald Trump is 1 of the best-developed people in the planet by Russian intelligence. I'm not saying he has direct ties to Russian intelligence.

Some say so.

– That's not what I know. For the purposes of these negotiations, the Russians surely have Trump worked out. Zelenski most likely realized that he would no longer have as strong cards as the Russians, so he decided to make his political success dependent on Trump's success. And do you know what the paradox is after these 3 years of war?

– It is the fact that Ukraine will negociate with Russia under the patronage of the United States. Something like that 20 years ago would have been unthinkable in the russian area. nevertheless it sounds, it is Ukraine's success that in a sense it already belongs to Western countries. The West supports it militarily and politically. Ukraine is not an intra-Russian issue, as Putin tried to present it at first. So I am not amazed that Ukraine accepts the United States' proposals, despite various difficulties.

And the latest US proposal is: we want to participate in Ukrainian atomic power plants.

– At first Trump demanded a lot from the Ukrainians. On the another hand, the Russians did not request anything that provoked outrage. This White home sketch reminded any analysts of Czechoslovakia in 1938, where from a weaker country in exchange for care they were asked to give themselves up in lenna stronger. Today, however, Americans are lowering their expectations to velocity up peace talks. It is worth noting that the Russians would definitely not like American competition in energy or natural materials, due to the fact that it would most likely affect the entry of large American companies into the marketplace of the erstwhile russian area. Moreover, American investments would most likely be guarded by service, soldiers, or American private military companies.

And Russia will never agree to that.

– This would mean a slow NATOization of Ukraine. It would be unacceptable for the Russians. So possibly in conversation with Putin the subject of American engagement in post-war Ukraine appeared. This message about limiting American demands is most likely besides a consequence of Russian pressure. The best script for the Russians is simple: the gradual withdrawal of Americans from Ukraine and then from Europe in general. But for now the Americans, as suppliers of military equipment and services, are in Ukraine. If they had entered the energy area, which is next to arms exports a strong US side, Russia might not have liked it. Russia does not want to release Ukraine from its 'zone of influence: and will effort to limit any Western influence in this country, especially American. Negotiations are a large chance to be on your own.

Zelenski asked Trump to support the air defense. Trump was expected to say, of course, I'll help, but you'll get the equipment from Europe. It's a short phrase, but I think it shows the strength of Europe.

– It is alternatively another consequence of the demands of the Russians who do not want for American weapons and troops in Ukraine. Then Putin's message from years ago that the Americans would install themselves in Ukraine, arm it and build bases aimed at Moscow. The Russians always usage the Cuban crisis of John F. Kennedy as a counterexample. The Russians remember that they had to retreat and anticipate the same from the US today. However, if the European troops were stationed in Ukraine, it would be equally uncomfortable for Russia, although it is inactive the nanisation of Ukraine, but the undecided Europeans – from the position of the Russians – can be played and argued. It would be little evil for Russia. However, I repeat – we inactive do not know what Russia has committed itself to. For today, it's up to the Russians to say the last word and that's what they say in a position of strength.

Does that surprise you?

– Yes, but at the same time I think that there may be misunderstandings and a negotiation crisis on the last straight. It will turn out that Russia and the US realize something completely different under the slogan “peace in Ukraine”. And the table could fall over.

The message by Zelenski states that “the American side proposed unconditional ceasefire on the front line, and Ukraine besides accepted the proposal. We will proceed to work to make this happen." In another words, Russia has rejected the proposal, so it is clear who is giving out the cards.

– We have eloquent silence from the Russian side that can afford to play on time. If we have Trump, who informs the full planet that he cares about peace, then the Russians simply wait and say: it is not enough, give more, promise more. I'm afraid that the debate was missing the threads of who was the aggressor and who was the victim. At this point, it is for the sake of negotiation, but we may fear any blurring of the issue of this war. The Russians are highly calm in these negotiations and thus show that they are the dominant party.

Putin can say, "But you're the 1 calling.

Putin thinks it's a convenient intellectual situation. He's the 1 he calls, he's the 1 he's asked to talk to. This gives him a sense of doing something that sells large in Russian propaganda media. China and Iran see that after 3 years of war, Russia began to gain political value from the US. Which is rather an unexpected turn of events from a European perspective.

But how can this end?

– I hope it doesn't get to any rotten room. Ukrainians have everything thought out – they have defended their sovereignty and surely know what they can give, what they can give up. What bothers me is the deficiency of any commitment from the aggressor. Russia does not retreat, demands more and more, offers no deescalation, of course there are no topics of compensation or reparation. I have concerns about whether a area designed in specified a unusual way can be permanent.

Luke Spitter was talking.