On 24 February 2022, along with Russia's renewed invasion of Ukraine, a dramatic change in Polish politics took place. A part of the political class continued to cling to the old feuds, but a fistful of its key positions, conscious of both the threat and the chance that the crisis has brought, took advantage of the minute to make immense changes. past has written down the names of these people with gold declarations, or after 3 decades of progressing marazmu they have yet restored the validity of the Polish statehood. They put her on the road to restoring the position of a power – a regional one, but a power. Unfortunately, I don't know the names of those daredevils due to the fact that before I could compose them down... I woke up.
As for the war in Ukraine and its impact on Polish affairs, unfortunately we see besides well that... it is what it is. Many publicists and analysts have said what is worth, what needs to be done to defend themselves from the threat, to take advantage of the opportunity. They bounced like peas against the wall, ignored, ridiculed or possibly disposed of by translation that yes, yes, that would be good, but unfortunately, impossible. Time passed, chances passed. Now we find ourselves in a situation where the effects of negligence and omission are manifested. It didn't should be that way. I admit that I am somewhat annoyed by those publicists who present proclaim with unusual satisfaction: “I told you so.” I don't see the point of triumphing erstwhile it's bad. Instead, let us, dear Readers, take a short journey to a planet that never existed – to an alternate history. Let's just think: how could it be different?
Chance of being caught with both hands
So let's imagine that at the time of the fresh war, politicians – we will skip all names here, due to the fact that that's not the point – not only did they say that the Republic was in mortal danger, but they besides acted as if they actually believed it. But the shock was so large that it was close. present we look back and say that it came out as usual, otherwise it could not – but it could. 1 simple example: according to Jack Hogi of the Ad Arma Foundation, who worked with Members seeking to introduce a new, much more liberal law on access to arms, there were all chance that this regulation would be implemented. It's been a fewer weeks. At a crucial minute Putin withdrew from Kiev, fear eased and vaporized the will to act. And if it hadn't evaporated, or if our rusted-up, half-dead state apparatus had been forced to act in greater haste already at the beginning of the invasion, erstwhile it seemed that Kiev would fall any day?...
Liberalisation of access to arms in the proposed form would consequence in a change that is very hard to reverse from day to day – at least a fewer dozen, possibly 1 100 or 2 100 1000 people would benefit from the chance to arm themselves immediately. A seemingly tiny thing – after all, the military troops of the Republic would not become stronger thanks to it – but what long-term impact on the spiritual disarmament of the nation! And an crucial consequence for today: erstwhile the destiny of the truce is at stake; erstwhile any – in my opinion wrongly, but little so – fear that we can shortly have thousands of bitter Ukrainian ex-soldiers in Poland looking for opportunities to vent their frustration, we would approach this much more calmly. It would have been clear that we don't should be defenseless if we were to. And that's not all. present something is yet happening there in the substance of learning how to operate weapons and shoot at school – but this "burial" success of the erstwhile government did not gotta happen so late. Could it not already have been in February 2022 that a fewer 100 additional shooting ranges could have been arranged? As early as September 2022, both school students and university students could begin to familiarize themselves with weapons and, above all, with the thought of work for their lives and their loved ones.
There was besides – really, there was – in February 2022 a social approval to suspend essential military service. Those who would protest would calm down rather rapidly if the conscription were introduced calmly and systematically, as many military experts advised. In the first year, take only a fewer 1000 recruits into the army, so many for which they could prepare the essential infrastructure within a fewer months – so that their training and service prove to be of real value. Then, from year to year, as the facilities and equipment and human tissue of our army develop, we would scope a higher level. present we would have at least a fewer tens of thousands more trained reservists, and another so many in the course of science. Of course, in parallel, he would gotta follow a program of real military repair. Firstly, to check immediately the mobilization capacity by bringing at least 1 full division to the ground and repair these capabilities and, secondly, to take care of the basic needs of the military and the industrial facilities. A bill that liberalises the military industry, followed by express tenders, would consequence in us not worrying about basic equipment or uniforming soldiers today. With each subsequent month, further weapons and ammunition production lines would be launched – personal, artillery. possibly even a final effort could be made to rescue the gradually murdered tanks of the Bumar-Łabada tanks for 2 decades. Of course, “there are no miracles”: all these factories would only start the right business, after a laborious effort to make or reconstruct production lines and training workers. However, what has been abandoned, due to the fact that "quickly to buy abroad", would be the first tangible effect. We would see the first fresh Polish tanks, and as far as drones are concerned, home private companies operating in this field would truly be able to show what they can do erstwhile they are not blocked by their government.
Right at the minute erstwhile the destiny of the war in the east is at stake, and Europe and Poland have nothing to say in the negotiations, due to the fact that they simply do not have military force – our country would have real efficient and reinforced armed forces. After the Blamash – due to the fact that it would be a Blamash – the first effort to bring the full division into the field, we would be able to solve these problems by now, besides changing the laws and powers of soldiers. It would besides lead to the fact that either our military would already be in reality, or at least an express repair program would be implemented.
The war in Ukraine besides provided an chance to solve a persistent problem for years, which only 1 strand has late been widely revealed as a consequence of the suspension of the USID agency. It is the problem of secretive financing of various non-governmental organizations by abroad countries, seeking to control the Polish government and Polish public opinion. We know very well that these influences are so crucial that Americans have frequently overthrown full governments in different countries to avoid their independence. There was one, only chance to do this so that the Americans and Europe could not protest – under the appearance of an urgent, burning request to fight Russian misinformation. To immediately, inactive in February 2022, write, vote, and implement the law duplicating the word in American law on registration of abroad influences. It would not be possible to ban specified abroad financing – the Americans do not prohibit at their home either – but its transparency would drastically change the form of things.
It couldn't have worked.
A number of further reforms could be devised here – a very, very large deal could be done in that short, fewer weeks window of time from February 24 to April 2022. First, however, 1 cannot exaggerate the dimension of the article, and second – after only a fewer proposals many The reader in his head will recite all the reasons why this could not work. Well, that's what – let's think about what would go wrong.
First of all, of course, it would be a question of political will, which would should be iron to make it happen. After all, we live in a country where, for example, the construction of a atomic power plant has been going on for respective years and the first shovel has not yet been inserted. All state processes are bound by a mass of laws that artificially prolong and complicate virtually all action. It is not that no of the above proposals were tried to implement – sometimes even something was tried, but these efforts crashed into a hard wall of bureaucracy. It is true, and it is hard – but it was besides the only minute erstwhile 1 could effort to break this stalemate. In order to succeed, large changes must have social approval. Otherwise, for example, passive opposition and passive opposition are increasing – this emergency situation gave it a unique opportunity.
The same applies to abroad resistance. After all, of course, that specified bold actions of the Polish government would meet the pressures of various embassies and, of course, the European Commission. And again: that moment, first of all, he gave an excuse for action to precede the agreement, and second, he actually reduced embassy influence. It is hard to press the government, whose support and cooperation is urgently needed, for example by organising a shipment channel of equipment to Ukraine, and which besides justifies its actions against Russia.
And yet money: that would, of course, besides be a serious challenge. However, let me point out that there are finances for a full scope of very costly abroad equipment orders, which in themselves do nothing without the military improvement being abandoned. I think that this buying frenzy could be reduced or spread more over time in order to be able to address the more pressing problems of our country.
Is it besides late?
There was a window – but it closed. A minute of confusion passed erstwhile for a minute anything was possible. The minute erstwhile under the force of reality even a mediocre government could emergence to the task and implement grand reforms. erstwhile the state is subject to as many and powerful influences as ours, specified opportunities are seldom seen. It has passed, and present we gotta break our hands over the negligence that makes present as a state we have nothing to say about the form of ending the war in Ukraine. This will not be our way, and no 1 will even be afraid with our thoughts or wishes – for why, if we do not have the force to do so? In war negotiations, it is who can influence the reality of the battlefield – we cannot.
So why the text? Yes, panic. what has now broken out in European salons is so fierce that it seems that the coming weeks are beginning another window of opportunity, but in a sense it is besides late. Time can't go back, so whatever starts now would bear fruit in the next fewer years. Besides, erstwhile we wonder if the government will yet prove to be effective and long-sighted, well – the present cabinet gives even little hope for this than its predecessors. So no, I'm not writing to keep us warm for action, calling out that you can inactive do this and that. surely we are at specified a minute in past erstwhile the situation of our country and nation again depends on the grace and disfavor of the powers – and the remainder lies in God's hands.
However, there are many who already knew at the beginning of the present war how it would end. They kept telling me how hopeless the situation was, how pointless the war was, and so on. They are the ones I turn to to say strongly: no, it was not apparent from the beginning. The Polish political class could have done otherwise. She didn't stand up for the job, but she could. possibly it's just her fault, possibly it's our responsibility – possibly we could have put force on them another way. I don't know. I know 1 thing: in the face of the threat, the corrupt, semi-Soviet, half-emerged Ukrainian political class managed to defend their country. She won't win the war and won't win it. No miracle will reverse events on the battlefield, and months to come may yet bring disaster. Who knows how truncated and exterminated Ukraine will come out of this war – but has real chances at all to come out of it with a defensive hand, and that is much more than anyone thought on February 24, 2022, erstwhile the destiny of this country seemed sealed.
So let us not give in to the temptations of pessimism in terms of Poland, whose situation inactive remains much better than Ukrainian. Yes, the crisis of 2022 has passed and has not been exploited. We will undoubtedly pay any price for the indolence of local politicians – but the game is inactive going on. And if any lost politician has come across this text, I ask you to draw conclusions and do whatever you can to be ready for the next opportunity. erstwhile the time comes, you gotta have plans ready to implement, due to the fact that as you can see, even a minute of hesitation can be adequate to throw distant an opportunity. Even more so, this next crisis may be much more serious.
Jakub Majewski
