The minute I compose these words, nothing is happening yet. Israel struck Hezbollah and Lebanon, and Hamas and Iran – but since there has not yet been an answer, nothing is happening. possibly this will change before this article is released, possibly a fewer more days. possibly we won't even notice, due to the fact that possibly another crisis will detonate in another part of the world, distracting us. The change of the president of the Global Power is always a delicate time, but I fear that in this 2024 there will be much more happening than usual.
Americans have the term: lame duck presidents – virtually the president of a lame duck, though possibly a more powerful translation would be the president of a fly duck. That is the point: the president, who has reached the end of his term, erstwhile it is known that he will not be re-elected, becomes incapable of even the most basic actions. There has not yet been an election, the successors have not yet been elected, but it is known that his time is at an end: so his power is drastically cut off, not by law, but by human nature. Since he will be gone soon, he can besides have no consequences for those who ignore his instructions. The various secretaries – in Polish ministers – now think more about their future and poll posts than about the boss's instructions. Congressmen and senators dedicate themselves to campaigning, and even global politics look through the prisms of local polls. Finally, abroad leaders are taking advantage of the chance to accomplish their objectives without fear of immediate response. Even allies know that this is the minute erstwhile you can yet halt worshiping Hegemon with service, and brazenly force concessions in exchange for political support for 1 or another faction in elections. If the Soyenne States realize this perfectly, they usually give in, the more they realize it, and usage these mechanisms, the theoretic allies, the waywards, who even regular usage the cynical support of America alternatively than working with it – let alone now!
Middle east Intrigues
As the last days have shown, and as I am afraid that they will show the next weeks, Israel has taken the first 1 to test the limits, and has done so with a typical "gratitude" to which the authorities of this country have already utilized us in fresh years. For nearly 2 decades now, 1 of the key themes in Israeli politics has been the threat of Iran acquiring atomic weapons. It is hard to deny that the consequences of this could be unpredictable, since Iran now reserves very publically that at least the offensive usage of atomic weapons in the explanation of the Iranian clergy would be "non-Islamic", so it is known that Islam does not truly have a permanent doctrine, and since another muslim states, like Pakistan, can justify the usage of specified weapons, Iran could besides be more flexible in the future. Even if Iran were hiding with specified weapons, from Israel's perspective, the possession of atomic weapons by the Persians would drastically change the balance in the mediate East.
No wonder that for many years, Israel has been wondering how to "prevent" hit Iran and destruct the threat before it occurs. However, Israel does not have specified a powerful strategical aviation to carry out an effective strike without the support of an ally, so he regularly asked, insisted, begged whether it was by the mouth of his own politicians or by the American, suto awarded by the powerful Israeli lobby in the States to agree to participate in the scandal. These requests were vain – the Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan have understood that even in the mediate East war with countries much weaker and little than Iran has painful and long-term consequences. Not until Iran – as mountainous as Afghanistan, but with a population larger than Afghanistan and Iraq combined, with a comparatively strong army, and a nation that may and may not love the authorities of its muslim republic, may and secretly dream of returning beautiful, and not so distant times of the empire, but patrioticly and willing to emergence up in defence of its – disliked but its – power.
Unable to ask war, Israel erstwhile and for all – especially during the reign of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – began to figure out how America could enter specified a war. Knowing that the American public was in favour of them – it was hard to work on it for decades – Israel felt that in the event of a strong hit from Iran, the American establishment with the support of most people would take part in the retaliation. All we had to do was provoke specified a strong Iranian hit. This failed in April this year – erstwhile attacking Iran's embassy, Israel clearly wanted to provoke Iran, but failed. The Persians played the theatre, responding with a large wave of rockets and drones, but – by no means by themselves burning to war – they made certain to inform America in advance, and so to play the strike to guarantee that the full attack would be intercepted in the air without losses in Israel. That's what happened, and president Biden straight forced Netanyahu to give it up. Only 4 months later, however, we are dealing with a completely different situation – a repeat, but much more dangerous.
Israel says "checking"
This is due to the fact that president Biden was forced to retreat from the election – there will be no re-election for him. Although Vice president Harris is moving in his replacement – and so, in the event of her victory, to any extent, the continuity of the administration will be preserved – it has just become classical overnight lame duckYou don't gotta pay any more attention to, not even from his condition. Harris, on the another hand, has frequently shown a deficiency of knowing for global matters and, on the another hand, at a time erstwhile polls do not warrant her victory, she cannot afford to offend the Israeli lobby.
Doubtless, erstwhile Prime Minister Netanyahu late spoke to the American legislature – awarded multiple ovations, exceeding the most faithful tributes he gave in Poland to American presidents – he besides had to meet with the Biden administration, and in the privacy of the cabinet he had to hear a strict command: no war with Iran, and the war in Gaza is to be silenced in order not to make divisions among the Democratic organization voters, among whom there is simply a large arabian number and mostly more pro-Palestinian sentiment than among its politicians. He must have heard it – and treated it like air, due to the fact that only a fewer days later, a double assassination occurred: in Lebanon, Israel killed the leader of the paramilitary group Hezbollah, and in Iran he struck the political leader Hamas, Isma’il Hanija. Especially in the second case, the provocation's outburst takes breath distant – for if Israel wanted to kill this man, it could have been fatal at any time at his home in Qatar. Meanwhile, it was awaited for the minute erstwhile Hanija arrived in Iran for the inauguration of the fresh president of that country – and he was killed by an explosive device in the heart of Tehran, so that no 1 would have any uncertainty who was behind it, and to bestow the Persian pride.
The attack that showed that Iran could not warrant its guests safety even in its own capital cannot, of course, stay unanswered – which the Israeli authorities were perfectly aware of. It is hard not to think that this is virtually about forcing a counter-attack on Iran, which in turn will give Israel origin to request even greater retaliation with America's direct participation. It is besides a severe effort for the American administration, which is presently in the mediate of the old and new. On the 1 hand, president Biden, as much as he remains awake, would have preferred to avoid this war, and as a very experienced politician, he would have found a way to end Netanyahu's actions if, first... He was full aware of what we can't be certain today, and secondly, if he truly inactive had power. On the another hand, Kamala Harris, who is aware – at least so much – and undoubtedly her co-workers have already explained to her how much disaster the current situation is facing, but as Vice President, she has no power yet, and what is worse, there cannot be a certain selection, which can equally endanger the outbreak of another war, as well as discouragement of the Israeli lobby.
Where will another crisis break out?
But... dear readers, contrary to appearances, this is not an article about a possible next war in the mediate East, although it is surely appropriate to pray earnestly that it does not happen. It is more than that: that we prepare for days and not weeks, but months of surprises of a akin scale, and likewise dangerous. Uncertainty around the weakening but inactive dominant power will last at least until the elections in November – and possibly until the inauguration of the next president, whoever he is, next January. Throughout this time, different tails will effort to wave the dog, and different fleas will effort to bite the dog—or possibly more than just fleas. The biggest – happily, despite all the least likely – possible surprise would be the Chinese blockade (not yet an invasion) of Taiwan. But there are many possibilities. While the riots that have just overthrown the government in Bangladesh are alternatively purely a local matter, without any ties to any abroad players, it is worth remembering that in close Pakistan the current government was formed for the clear encouragement of America, and it can be imagined that erstwhile the power turns its eyes off, another forces could encourage Pakistanis to follow Bangladesh. Of course, uncertainty about the next president and the comparative powerlessness of the dying U.S. administration will besides mobilize Russians to do this more intensive action on the Ukrainian front, as well as on various insignificant fronts of the silent war on influence in Africa. Meanwhile, European countries are going out of their minds, not knowing how to prepare to come hated by Trump's elite, without harming the current – and possibly future – administration.
In addition, there are inactive respective crises which are not connected with the current state of the American administration, but with the general situation – although sometimes due to actions or negligence, either American politicians or their allies. Bangladesh – where China can benefit – is 1 thing. Riots in the UK – there is definitely a possible for a greater crisis, although with these announcements of "domestic war", I would not exaggerate – the latter. Finally, the U.S. economy, whose worse than usual indicators have just contributed to a strong stagnation on the stock exchanges.
Elections in the leading planet power have always been the origin of any unrest, sometimes erstwhile the eyes of the American authorities focus on interior affairs, sometimes in abroad affairs making decisions popular in the short word but harmful in the long term. This time, however, it may be much harsher, due to the fact that here the weak, senile president becomes a lame duck already at the end of July, erstwhile for more than 3 months no fresh president will emerge, and the power will actually take place in January. Unfortunately, this long transitional period does not seem to be peaceful.
Jakub Majewski
