World crises have always occurred. Following historical events we see them in all countries – sometimes behind the veil of bloody revolutions and epochal changes, which were usually the consequence of the crisis and not its cause. These causes were different – sometimes unexpected disasters or epidemics, but to a large degree costly wars (always due to the excessive ego and ambition of 1 of the rulers or the full nation) or innovative monetary reforms (which always meant giving up "real" money for fresh inventions, which in the past were coins bitten from inferior aggregates or from copper itself and then paper money). Sometimes (and even often) speculative bubbles appeared and hopes of unexpected profits – is it in investing in tulip bulbs? Or a fresh channel connecting the oceans? Often, crises have besides begun to run out of natural resources (which are the basis for the gross of countries with mines), famine due to weather or bad harvests, or even a technological revolution (also the failure of income of any countries and the change of the planet economy). The effects of crises have usually been tragic, impoverishment of society (in the crisis they always lose the poorest or hardworking citizens) yet led to an increase in populist sentiments or a real revolution in the name of justice (which yet always ate their own children). However, there have been crises which paradoxically favour certain countries – and so in our reflections on Kazimierz Wielki we seldom think about the planet crisis caused by the large Black Death plague (exploded in 1346), which helped Poland make from the background of another countries in Western Europe (the sign successfully missed Poland). Since always, crises have been investigated (and are trying to predict) - on this basis the full explanation of economical cycles and many models (e.g. Kondratiewa) and all have 1 common feature - perfectly explain phenomena, but after the outbreak and the end of the next crisis. due to the fact that so far – there is another large crisis problem – they always detonate unexpectedly and we are amazed by them.
This time – July 2022 – clouds begin to gather on the horizon. The crisis (hopefully) will not happen – but it is hard to deny that there is simply a unique accumulation of adverse factors, and the planet economy keeps sending us worrying signs. Anxiety grows, and subconscious anxiety is always the first feeling of impending weather.
War – no thought at all... February 2022 and the war in Ukraine changed the full planet political and economical agreement. all day we see news and comments, but nowhere we see a real plan for a good end. In fact, step by step Russia and Ukraine are in conflict to an exhaustion, further signs from Russia are becoming increasingly frightening. Not only would the face of the Russian president fall in madness, but besides looking at the statements of all his supporters (if any of the sentences of the Russian politicians were to appear a year ago as a full absurdity) until the words of the patriarchy of Moscow Cyril, who had just said that “Russia is not only different” (and consequently could commit any crimes within its indifference) which ominously resembles the temper of Nazi Germany on the eve of the storm on Berlin. Russia's war drags Russia itself into crisis, but through its unpredictability and fierceness it can pull all another countries.
New Covid – an epidemic that was to be contained... The pandemic locked us in our homes and ruined all economical indicators. This year was to be completely different – abruptly meetings, concerts, abroad trips and an optimistic view of the planet came back. It was expected to be, but it's not. increasing rates of illness in Germany show that Covid returns in fresh mutations and without a fresh thought to master it. Now even another lockdown will not work (the community will no longer adapt, but it seems that fresh mutations are spreading faster) and subsequent doses of vaccines have average effects (helping but not eliminating). Another mutation, fortunately, is somewhat weaker and little deadly, but due to its universality – they will block wellness care again and can have a catastrophic impact on the economy.
The hunger to remind you of migration... Something that seemed distant and covered for many years. Hunger, food shortage – especially in Africa – was a problem in the 1980s (it is worth reminding Live Aid concerts and mobilising societies around this problem). Since then, the problem has been flooded with global grain export lines and widespread food subsidies. Now it's falling apart. In a moment, hunger may return... and if there is hunger, migration will return too, and this could consequence in the return of the exile storm to rich European countries. The migration problem, which was besides buried with money for dictators and fences at the borders – can hit the first media screens again.
Virtual money and another speculative bubble... All we can learn from the speculative bubbles is that they will never end and always "bomb". The cryptolutes have become the largest financial experimentation since the introduction of paper money (the breasts invented them by the Chinese in the 9th and 10th centuries, but were introduced more widely in Europe since the 17th century – in Poland for the first time in 1794). Before becoming a common and unchangeable means of exchanging goods, the financial systems of many countries broke down. Now cryptocurrency has taken over the function – a new, innovative solution of the 21st century, of course creating a giant speculative bubble that seems to swell on the way to a spectacular crack. Before cryptocurrency becomes a common means of exchanging goods – they must go their way – and thus origin a large global crisis.
Printing money isn't adequate due to the fact that inflation... In addition, a typical way to deal with crises has been exhausted. Flooding the marketplace with newly-printed money to stimulate the economy is no longer adequate due to the fact that inflation is hydrating. Of course, the printers of the planet mints are standing by, but after hard work during the pandemic, another condition of fresh banknotes does not gotta aid the economy. Inflation in all countries is advanced (not to mention Poland, where it is already highly dangerous). Most people in Poland do not know at all what an avalanche decline in the value of money means, the request to escape into “hard” currencies (although where they are now) and advanced interest rates (ruining borrowers with mortgages on the apartment, but besides blocking business activities through advanced credit costs). There's no easy solution and a crisis with hyperinflation... It's always possible.
The fresh technological revolution doesn't give you a job... Additionally, fast technological development... but not necessarily in a calm direction. Automation, digitisation, artificial intelligence – everything comparable to the First Industrial Revolution changes our world, but at the same time they do not give work to broad layers of society. At least, fresh robots will take this occupation (as they utilized to be) and it will take time to control workers into fresh ways of production. In the meantime, they will be unnecessary and will protest as erstwhile "machine-breakers" (revolved under Ludd's leadership – erstwhile the machines drove out the manufacture). That is why so much is now mentioned about "a guaranteed income" or free access to marijuana – things that are expected to pacify social sentiments, although populism can always benefit from the situation as it is today.
What seems especially dangerous present is the accumulation of all phenomena. In the past, 1 of them was adequate to trigger a crisis. Now we have actually all of them – the large Cumulation. Has the fresh large Depression already knocked at our gates? All hope that, as in the days of Kazimierz the large – possibly we will miss again and paradoxically win on it?
