"House, family, barbecue, 2 cars, holiday. This is how we want to live" – this is the imagination of Poland presented in the current run by the Confederation, who as the only organization skillfully retired from the PO-PiS duopol, telling voters her own communicative about Poland. Today, as a consequence of the influx of fresh electorate, the alliance of nationalists and liberals has gained support around 12-13%, attracting more and more people with liberal beliefs not only in the sphere of the economy but besides in the worldview. Will the "combined forces of the ideological right" marginalise in their message worldview and culture issues in fear of electoral outflow?
In particular, the freedom wing of the Confederate is tempted by the centre drift and the detachment of the “high right” patch. There is nothing amazing about it – the freedom environment does not place specified importance on cultural and planet views as nationalists. Declared conservatism in the oxymoronical word "conservative-liberal", referred to the peri-Corvinian ideological environment, is mostly a product of socialization in a conservative society, not the consequence of an ideologically and intellectually established conservative attitude. The face of “conservatism” served by the hummingbirds, specified as the participation of the Corvinian youth in the local equality march or the declared support for abortion and homosexual relationships by the Young for Freedom and any politicians of fresh Hope, is adapted to the decision of Polish society towards world-view liberalism.
This is nothing surprising, due to the fact that there is no area for conservatism in the consistent implementation of liberal assumptions – cannot be liberal and conservative at the same time, as he emphasized in the fresh Deal Alain de Benoist. Immigration is an excellent example of this contradiction; from a liberal perspective, the free movement of people and the freedom of settlement should be defended; from a conservative perspective, the protection of the local community, social order, national heritage and culture should be put first. The "freedom" of the roller finds in its way an obstacle to further expansion in the form of various, by nature "antifreedom" (i.e. affirming more than "free choice of individual", specified as traditions, community interest, social order), conservative demands. We are just witnessing the “disrupting” of the conservatism of the “conservative-liberal” environments by the consistently implemented “freedom” agenda.
Towards downtown?
The Confederacy's intention to become a "freedom-technocratic organization of the economy" was presented in a fresh interview with RMF FM Przemysław Wipler, saying: "Construction of a solid, unchangeable batch begins at the edge, going to the center. This is our way. We're going downtown. Most of our electorate are people with free, free marketplace views who want economical change. Who want us not to get into moral and world-view strife due to the fact that they just want to live better and more decently.” The Confederation's fresh face besides suggested the anticipation of a tactical coalition with the current opposition to "clean up the state". I must admit, it sounds alternatively grotesque to me that the state is being swept out of the mouth of a man accused of embezzlement of fundraising money, of which there are many tasty stories about lobbying.
Przemysław Wipler is right about the views of the fresh electorate, but the toughest, permanent electorate of the Confederate, who allowed her to enter political salons, the organization gained primarily through “flanking” from the right side of the Law and Justice – they were frequently disillusioned by the insufficient principality of the ruling organization on issues of worldview or defence of sovereignty in the EU forum. The world-view similarity of PiS and Confederate electorates shows a CBOS survey Electorates on crucial socio-political issues (the biggest differences between the 2 electorates concern issues related to the Catholic Church, which can be explained to any degree by the generational difference) of August 2021.
By juxtaposing the above data with this year's results, we can observe the liberalization of the Confederate electorate. No major changes were seen in the approach to the economy, taxation, state or public services.
The central drift and extinction of controversial topics were heard during the fresh Confederate Programme Convention. "Politicians should get distant from us, halt interfering with our lives, each of us is master of our fate, we do not request politicians to tell us how to live" – this content of 1 of the slides displayed during Sławomir Mentzen's speech is simply a synthesis of the message from both the June convention and the ongoing electoral campaign.
Sławomir Mentzen's conventional speech was 100% focused on the economy, while Krzysztof Bosak's speech was more varied – the talker put in a fewer threads friendly to the conservative electorate of the Confederation, including the foundations of European civilization, opposition to the European Union or immigration. Bosak besides opposed censorship and political correctness. It would seem that the natural threat in this substance is the large digital corporations managing the "Internet agora", the Confederate candidate in the presidential election, however, utilized this to hit Law and Justice and Polish Television. Grzegorz Braun, who was at the end of the program, somewhat broke the thought of a non-controversial, balanced program convention and in his kind made noise, speaking about Jews, Ukrainians, Germans and deviants.
The strategy to search to get a Labable, capricious, centred electorate at the expense of a "right", faithful electoral base seems politically at least risky. While in the short term, i.e. in the electoral campaign, fishing, where only 1 can hope for the best possible result, long-term dependence on liberal electorate can consequence in a "pragmatic" avoidance of controversial demands for this electorate at the cultural, worldview or sovereignty level. This spirit of “flowing with the current” of the Wipler electorate expressed in a conversation with Agnieszka Gozdira in the “Debating of the Day” even in the issue, it would seem, rather unambiguous and zero-one, that is, the adoption by Poland of the euro. The Confederate candidate did not explicitly declare the defence of the euro as an attribute of sovereignty and a tool for shaping economical policy, but stated that discussions on the adoption of the euro could be returned erstwhile the conditions under which this adoption could be met.
While Przemysław Wipler may be right, saying that "it begins at the edge, going to the center", the resignation of attitudes and demands of "outward" in the name of "central" should begin after reaching a certain level of support, erstwhile we have already attracted all the "outside" voters – it is simply a ceiling of around 18-20% alternatively than 8-10%.
So what should the Confederate focus on? possibly the answer is to work on expanding the base of the "hard electorate". The Confederation has a comparatively tiny hard electorate against the background of another groups, expanding its base (according to CBOS research, only the voters of the PSL-Poland 2050 alliance are more unstable) and attracting fresh voters with a akin ideological profile should be a precedence from a long-term point of view. Oko.press poll examining the preferences of the electorate for the second political choice shows any possible in attracting the voters of Law and Justice – half of the voters of the ruling organization who made any second choice of organization preferences would vote for the Confederation. So there is simply a field not only to attract liberal electorate, but besides more conservative, whose issues of sovereignty or protection of cultural heritage are close.
Hungarian Lesson
The specified change of the perfect facet and letting go of the controversial subject, which was an essential part of the identity of a given formation, does not warrant success. As a consequence of specified a viewable "rebranding", it can become unbelievable and for a "extreme electorate", and at the same time unacceptable to the "central" voter. A informing to the Confederate is the example of Hungarian Jobbiku, who, as a organization with a nationalist face in 2018, gained more than 20% of his support to then adopt the strategy of going to the centre. As a consequence of this strategy, Jobbik turned into a tiny one, becoming a political margin. And all this has happened over just 4 years.
Jobbik launched last year's parliamentary elections on the committee of the "United Opposition", united around 1 goal—to remove Fidesz from power with Viktor Orbán at the head. Jobbik completely compromised himself by entering a coalition with environments that were his top enemies before the “rebranding” and the coalition itself achieved a score lower than expectations. Nature evidently hates the vacuum and emptiness left on the right side of the Hungarian political scene filled the organization Mi Hazánk Mozgalom, with László Toroczeka at the head, who left Jobbik just due to the change in the face of the perfect party.
Completion
The Confederacy as an eclectic and ideologically exotic alliance attracts a diverse electorate, not necessarily highly conservative, as evidenced by the almost equal distribution of voters of Krzysztof Bosak in the second circular of presidential elections. The point is that in the message it is now weighing on the liberal-economic "leg" of the Confederate, giving comparatively small attention to the "leg" of the conservative-worldview. The current polling rise is the result, above all, of the tide of the liberal electorate economically and globally – it seems that the further run strategy will be to guarantee that these fresh possible voters do not frighten the worldview with conservatism.
If the Confederate "brings" an election consequence of around 12%, with the dominance of the liberal electorate, there will be a temptation to further weaken the uncomfortable conservative "leg" for technocratic concentration on the economy, as declared by Przemysław Wipler. specified a drift will reopen the window of chance for parties with a fundamentally conservative face on the Polish right. Will the Confederation quit planet views and become a "freedom-technocratic organization of the economy"? Let us hope that leaders and the environment inside a organization of a strictly conservative nature will not let this. What if that happens? Then the "united forces of the ideological right" will be the right only by name, falling to the end in the abyss of anti-state and anti-Community libertinism.
photo: confederation.pl
