Daria Różańska-Danisz, naTemat.pl: The situation for this minute is purely hypothetical, although we all know that it is real: in 2 weeks the presidential election wins the "decision of president Kaczyński", or Karol Nawrocki. What can we expect?
Professor Anna Paczeniak: With this position we are inactive fresh. We knew it would be a rivalry between Trzaskowski and Nawrock. But all the polls have deluded this side supporting the Civic Coalition that this advantage is significant.
Karol Nawrocki spoke of himself as entering politics six months ago, and as his main asset pointed to the deficiency of political competence. It was curiosity.
I'm talking about all this to show that we're all amazed not that Karol Nawrocki entered the second circular of elections, but that his win is possible
And more real than we thought on Friday.
What competence does the president have? Watching this campaign, I sometimes felt that candidates for this office either did not know it or were trying to mislead us.
The president can veto the bill and represent the country outside.
Yes, the president has the top abroad policy competence and negative legislative competence, which is blocking laws. From a national policy perspective, if Nawrocki wins, then complaining that the government is changing things besides slow or not delivering any promises, but it will increase.
Karol Nawrocki simply says that what he considers to be liberal madness, left-wing madness, will block. Any candidate who turns into president-elect during election night ensures that he will represent everyone, even those who have not voted for him. But those voters who decided to change power
In October 2023, they would not be represented by this president.
This candidate argued that he wanted "normality", "without sick ideologies, without ecoterror, without Green Deal, which in his opinion "destroys Polish farms and affects our accounts", without ideology in Polish schools.
It is clear that this is about circumstantial political views with which Charles Nawrock is not on the way. Young people have gone to elections so collectively, supported Mentzen, but their concern besides concerns how the climate changes, how much politicians do not deal with it. The existential unrest – characteristic of young people – in Karol Nawrocki's mouth is completely irrelevant.
The stake of this election is the return of the Law and Justice to power? This would be Poland, where Jarosław Kaczyński pulls strings?
I agree with many commentators who say that winning Karol Nawrocki surely makes it easier for the Law and Justice to return to power, that is to say having their own Prime Minister and the parliamentary majority.
Does this mean an early fall election?
I don't think so. For this to happen already in the fall, it would gotta come to a self-solution of the Sejm budget bill. We don't have that constitutional premise. And the question is, in the name of what would the present majority of the parliament do this move?
What about the 2027 election?
Charles Nawrocki, with his announcements and promises, would hold back what he did not like, which is most likely the majority of matters coming out of the government. This despite any assumed communicative by Donald Tusk's government, would be perceived as his ineptitude. As if voters did not realize why this government was ineffective.
Therefore, even without accelerated choices, there would be a very good chance
– from the point of view of this right political side – to regain power and take it into their own hands. Especially since the Confederate says she wants to have the Prime Minister in the future. Even if it is not a organization that will win in the next election, as without the Confederacy it will not win to build a government, we can number on Sławomir Mentzen to be the next Prime Minister.
Professor Antoni Dudek said that "Karol Nawrocki will be able to act as president, to whom no of his predecessors (...) were capable". What does the prof. anticipate from him?
I besides left out your question of whether Nawrocki would be a tool in Kaczyński's hands. I don't think it's gonna be a rerun.
Looking at what Nawrocki represents during the campaign, it seems that he will not walk on Jarosław Kaczyński's belt. And not only due to its characteristics, but besides due to the fact that the president of the Law and Justice – even in the eyes of his electorate – as a leader is weakening.
Therefore, Karol Nawrocki may feel that there is no request to follow what Jarosław Kaczyński will whisper to him from Nowogrodzka. If Nawrocki manages to win the election on June 1, then his mandate is guaranteed for 5 years. During this time Kaczyński – as an active politician – may no longer be.
Charles Nawrocki will be a more hard obstacle to Donald Tusk's government than Andrzej Duda? Are we gonna miss Duda yet?
I hear voices like that more and more frequently after the liberal left. We don't know what kind of president Charles Nawrocki might be. But it is clear that the organization supporting Rafał Trzaskowski expects nothing good.
This possible that Andrzej Dudy cannot have a 3rd word and will only be president until August allows – emotionally – to take him little seriously.
President Duda's last moves...
Yeah. It was thought that Rafał Trzaskowski would win and velocity things up. The changes we promised will come into force. And the triumph of Karol Nawrocki on the another side of the political scene can origin large sadness, both in the ranks of the government, but
And among the voters. Out of nowhere's hope.
The president is besides abroad policy. The United States would be the key partner and guarantor of Poland's safety in uncertain times for Nawrocki
And Donald Trump?
All candidates say that safety is the most important. Both pointed out that Poland would not send troops to Ukraine and that the spending on defence should be increased.
The relation with the European Union, which does not supply us with military security, but guarantees this economic, makes it possible to shift our interest to military security. As a unchangeable partner and based on a very good relationship, the EU is assured by Rafał Trzaskowski. And Karol Nawrocki cuts off from time to time, talking about limiting our sovereignty, which comes from membership
in the EU. It indicates that Donald Trump and the United States are our guarantors.
Karol Nawrocki met with Donald Trump.
And I'm certain Charles Nawrocki will remind you of this gathering before the second circular of elections. But I dare say Donald Trump has already erased it. This gathering doesn't mean anything. Besides, Donald Trump is not unconditionally devoted to Central and east Europe and does not think that Poland is simply a pearl in the crown in this region.
In that sense, I would be afraid that if Charles Nawrocki had become president, he would have worked with Trump, and he would have wanted the remainder of the government to take over. And if it didn't work out, he'd think it wasn't his fault. This only shows the EU's weakness. It is clear that Karol Nawrocki has no relations in the European Union.
We know from the presidential debates that there is no basic cognition in this respect either.
Yes, his political cognition is not impressive, possibly with historical cognition is better. I'm certain that would be quite a few trouble. A fewer days ago, Karol Nawrocki was meeting, as he thought, with the future president of Romania who lost this election.
So what would he have left? I'm certain Prime Minister Viktor Orban. And showing historical events in relations with Ukraine. Politics – with the main tenant of Nawrock – is mainly a question mark. I would bet that he doesn't really know how to change anything about it, improve it. But I think it besides involves that Jarosław Kaczyński did not appoint him to win these elections. And possibly Charles Nawrocki is just getting a imagination that he can win.
How would specified a president affect our image in Europe, in the world?
Karol Nawrocki is unrecognized internationally. And his eventual win could be specified a possible that the PiS – in opposition – acquires an crucial bridgehead of executive power after a year and a half after being removed from power. So this narrative, comments – especially European ones – will go towards the fact that this right turn is besides carried out in Poland. And what happened in October 2023 was just an accident at work. From a European position – a affirmative case – but a precedent. It will be said that Karol Nawrocki is any kind of unknown.
What kind of female is Poland waiting for erstwhile Nawrocki would be president?
I think what happened during the regulation of the United Right plus the addition of boosters. The women and men who demonstrated in 2016 or 2020 will most likely go out again. But people protest not only due to the fact that they are angry, but besides erstwhile they see the meaning of their actions and the possible that certain processes can be stopped with these actions.
People will halt seeing the point...
And they will be frustrated that in 2023 they made any effort,
And politicians wasted it.
What about the wellness premium?
If Nawrocki had become president, he wouldn't have had to fight for any more votes, do no bowing to entrepreneurs. Although Karol Nawrocki is not a associate of the PiS, he will definitely cooperate with this party. Since the Law of Law and Justice stressed that it was not fair to lower the wellness contribution, they most likely should not anticipate Karol Nawrocki to sign specified a bill.
Historical policy – this is what the possible president of Nawrocka would actively focus on?
I think there's no uncertainty about it.
First visit not to Kiev, but "Washington, with a stopover at the Vatican". The separation of the Church from the State for a possible Nawrock presidency is something we should long forget?
During the election evening Rafał Trzaskowski mentioned this. I'm not certain that's the emotion that's burning Poles now. Karol Nawrocki's presidency could make it back on the agenda. Especially if he showed besides ostentatiously that there is no chapter.
No public individual – including a politician – refuses the right to show our faith, but if this is to translate into state policy, it is an component that even for conservative voters is simply a substance of interest.
What would Poland look like, in which the president is Nawrocki, and the far right has over 20% of support?
Brown. Although summertime is coming and there will be more sun, this does not mean that this social tissue is in a good color. A small consolation is that it is akin in Germany or Austria. It's most likely something that the Russians like. This is in no way an effort to build a social consensus around the most crucial matters, but alternatively to radicalise political and social life.
This will be Poland, where we will be...
...to fight for basic values.
Prof. dr hab. Anna Paczeniak – is simply a polytolivore and Europeanist from the University of Wrocław. She is simply a permanent advisor to the Committee on abroad Affairs and the European Union legislature of the Republic.
