After the eventual triumph of Karol Nawrocki in the presidential election, there may be an effort to overthrow Donald Tusk's government by force – the political scientist Prof. Antoni Dudek alarms. In an interview with Przemysław Szubartowicz, the expert pointed out the anticipation of a "military script", comparing the situation to the interwar period. In this case, it is besides worth noting that the presidential elections disagree importantly from the parliamentary elections. There is no presumption of validity in the presidential elections and they must be approved by the ultimate Court. The issue of the approval of elections is dealt with by the illegal Chamber of Extraordinary Control and Public Affairs of the ultimate Court, which includes persons who are not entitled to issue decisions. Due to the above whether the elections in the second circular will win Nawrocki or Trzaskowski there is simply a legal problem, as the judgement given by the written Pokemons sitting in this chamber will not have the characteristics of a legal document. In specified a situation, it will not be possible for the Sejm to curse the elected president to the position. This situation will origin very large legal chaos, as well as politicians can be utilized to introduce martial law in Poland.
"Military scenario" after the election? Prof. Dudek: We are slow moving towards this
– If Karol Nawrocki wins the presidential election, then the PiS will do anything to bring the Tusk government down as shortly as possible. – said prof. Antoni Dudek (UKSW) in the program “Shubartovich’s Point of View”.
The expert presented 3 possible scenarios after the election:
- Attempt to rebuild the coalition – negotiations with PSL and Confederate to make a majority in the Sejm.
- Budget sabotage – convincing opposition MPs to block next year's budget, which could lead to early elections.
- ‘Military scenario’ – Nawrocki, as head of the Armed Forces, could usage the military to destabilise the government.
– If it doesn't help, Karol Nawrocki will study, together with the generals, what it means to head of the Polish Armed Forces with respect to the President “The political scientist added.
"Patriotic Army" and return to inter-war?
When asked if a "military script" was actually possible, prof. Dudek replied: “Why not?”. – Do you hear what president Kaczyński says? He announces that a separate police force needs to be formed, so the president from his side will take care of the formation of a patriotic army. This is the direction of the Law and Justice – he said.
When the writer asked if Nawrocki could take the army out into the streets, prof. Dudek replied: “We are moving on slowly”.
The expert recalled that in times of the regulation of the Law and Justice, Poland had 2 "international safes" – EU and American. – Today, the American fuse does not be at all, and the EU is very weak. If the process of erosion of these external fuses, stabilising democracy in Poland, will continue, then we will return to the interwar period - He warned me.
In 1926 a akin political conflict ended May coup Józef Piłsudski. Can past repeat itself?
What if Nawrocki loses? “We will live with the unrecognized president”
Prof. Dudek is besides considering a script in which Nawrocki will not win the election. – If Slawomir Mentzen enters the second circular instead, it will be a gigantic crisis for the PiS, the biggest in the past of this party He said.
However, if Nawrocki gets to the second round, but loses to Rafał Trzaskowski, Prof. Dudek provides: – President Kaczyński will most likely declare that the elections were rigged, that he does not recognise president Trzaskowski, that the real president is Nawrocki, and that we will live like this until the next parliamentary election, after which president Trzaskowski will be brought out of the Palace as an illegal President.
– I heard a message late by Przemysław Czarnek, who said that if the elections were rigged, they would call a large assembly to Warsaw and bring their own president to the Palace – he added.
“The fight will begin who”
Prof. Dudek admitted that we are presently dealing with a "great inflation of words" and that possibly for now everything will end only with threats.
– Just a question of how long. In my opinion, erstwhile these external fuses have been removed to the end, in Poland, the fight of who will start. And then politicians can go from words to deeds. - He warned me.
– I'd love to be wrong, but it's better to inform than pretend there's no specified threat. – he added.
Is there any chance of a peaceful solution?
The expert besides pointed to a affirmative scenario: – There is besides a anticipation that Rafał Trzaskowski will win the presidential election, and the current government coalition will last until the next election in 2027 and will not lose them. Therefore, there will be a generational exchange in the PiS, and possibly the successor of the president of Kaczyński will consider that a small modification of the party's policy, a small softening, seeking agreements.
Is Poland moving towards a political crisis, or will it be possible to avoid escalation? Prof. Dudek remains cautious, but 1 thing is certain – coming months may be crucial for the future of Polish democracy.
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Is Poland in danger of a military coup? Prof. Dudek warns against script after election
