In order for the country to be able to match Russia's firepower, it must accumulate immense amounts of military equipment, corresponding to its potential:
Russian arsenal (estimation 2025)
Tanks and armoured vehicles
- Main primary tanks: approx. 6 384 pcs
- Other armoured vehicles (IFV, transporters): additional approx. 14,792 pcs.
Artillery
- Total artillery (tracted + self-propelled + rocket): c. 13 102 + 3 803 + 3 449 ≤ 20 354 barrels and launcher
- Additional stocks: 6 786 barrels pulled + 2,961 self-propelled
Aviation and air defense
- Assault/"fighter-bombers" and fighters: approx. 310 fast jets + 290 assault helicopters (Mi-24, Ka-52)
Military production
- 250,000 artillery shells per period (~3 million per year), which represents over 3 times the US and EU productions
- Production of 200 fresh tanks per year (US: ~135)
What would a competitor gotta do?
- Primary tanks ~ 6 400 pcs
- Other armoured vehicles ~ 14 800 pcs
- Artillery approx. 20,000 barrels
- 300 jets + ~ 300 helicopters
- Artillery missiles ~ 3 million a year
- New tanks per year ~ 200 pieces
Conclusion
In order to accomplish a parity of firepower, an arsenal comparable to or greater than Russian would should be created – which would require billions of money, mass production/importation strategy and logistics. Even NATO collectively – with multiple Russia in many categories – finds it challenging to keep up with Russian ammunition production and tanks
A country wishing to be equal to Russia in terms of firepower would gotta have:
- Thousands of tanks and armored vehicles,
- Tens of thousands of artillery barrels,
- Hundreds of combat aircraft and helicopters,
- Own manufacture and/or import millions of missiles per year and at least respective 100 further tanks per year.
This would require a scale comparable to a country with a second-largest military possible – akin to the full NATO.
The cost of comparing Russia in the power of fire depends on scale, technology and whether we buy ready equipment or make our own industry.
Estimated cost of reconstructing Russian military possible (USD)
- Primary tanks - 6 400 pcs of 8-10 million each = 51 billion
- BWP, transporters 14 800 pcs PO 3–5 million each = 59 billion
- Artillery - 20,000 pcs of 2-3 million each = 50 billion
- Fighters + bombers 300 pcs 40–80 million each = 8–24 billion
- Assault helicopters - 300 pcs of 25-30 million each = 8-9 billion
- Tactical rockets - tens of thousands of pieces = 5–10 billion (estimated)
- Artillery missiles 3 million/year
- New factories and infrastructure -100–200 billion
Total estimated cost:
approx. US$300-400 billion
(i.e. 1.2–1.6 trillion zlotys)
Prices based on current US, German, South Korea contracts (a bit more costly than Russian counterparts). Training, logistics, repairs, supplies, maintenance costs are not included. It does not include atomic weapons (which Russia has hundreds of warheads).
For comparison:
MON Poland budget at PLN 2024: 158 billion (~39 billion USD), half of which is modernization.
Comparing Russia would mean 10× current MON yearly budget
Financing
In order for Poland to be able to velocity up Russia's levelling in firepower, it would be essential to importantly increase defence spending – financed by taxation increases or budget transfers.
Current situation (2024)
- MON budget 2024: ~158 billion PLN (~39 billion USD) – ~4.2% of GDP
- Objective: scope $400 billion in equipment (comparable with Russia)
- Distance: US$300-350 billion of missing investments
Acceleration scenarios
A. average growth - 60 billion USD (~250 billion PLN), 6-7 years, +2-3 percent points of VAT or ZUS contributions
B. Aggressive growth - USD 100 billion (~420 billion), 3–4 years, e.g. fresh military tax, 3% of income
C. utmost (war) - 150 billion USD (~630 billion PLN), 2–3 years, +6–8% PIT/CIT/VAT or full redistribution of expenditure
Potential sources of funding
- Increase of VAT by 2% ~40–50 billion PLN, Growth from 23% to 25%
- Increase of PIT by 3% ~25–35 billion PLN, average class load
- New war taxation 2% ~20–30 billion PLN, From individual and corporate income
- Social expenditure simplification ~40-60 billion PLN, e.g. simplification of 500+, early retirement
- Debt increase (war), PLN 100–300 billion once, MON peculiar bonds (like South Korea)
Acceleration is only possible with large fiscal sacrifices. The fastest way is simply a fresh targeted military taxation + increase in VAT + peculiar bonds. A realistic political boundary: spending 6–7% of GDP, financed by a mix of dans and debt.