Ariel Draginski expects Europe to face a massive migration crisis in 2023. His concerns arise from the anticipation of a fast increase in the influx of refugees from 3 different directions simultaneously. Interestingly, Russia plays an crucial function in each of these regions.
That is why we have prepared for you a text in which, based on Ariel's information, we point to the accumulation of factors that could origin the population to drain from Ukraine, Russia, as well as North Africa and the mediate East.
Current migration situation in Ukraine
Detailed forecasts for possible influx of migrants from Ukraine to Polandand challenges related to their integration, we have already presented in erstwhile articles. Therefore, we will now confine ourselves only to presenting the latest information in this area.
In September 2022. There were about 7 million interior refugees in Ukraine. They are people who have already left their homes, but are inactive in their homeland. We can presume that at least any of them will shortly decision towards Europe.
This is due to the deteriorating quality of life in Ukraine, caused by Russian attacks on critical infrastructure facilities. fresh reports indicate that 40% of the energy grid was damaged country and 30% of all power plants.
Also developed evacuation plans for Kiev in case of interruption of electricity supply To the city. Ukrainian authorities They besides appeal to fellow countrymen abroad I don't want them coming back to the country by the end of winter.
Two possible scenarios for developments in Ukraine
According to Ariel, there are 2 most likely scenarios for the improvement of the migration situation in Ukraine. This affirmative presumption assumes that Russia will deficiency the strength and resources to proceed its attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure facilities. In this case, we can anticipate a exile wave of 2 million.
Such estimates were heard by Councillor of the Lower Silesian state P. chaotic from Ukrainian politicians on their fresh journey to the East. The Czech Minister of the Interior – V. Rakušan, who claims that An additional 700 000 refugees from Ukraine may arrive in the EU.
The negative script in turn assumes the collapse of the country's energy infrastructure and the evacuation of Kiev. Then the influx of migrants from the east border of Poland to Europe would most likely be much larger than 2 million people. However, it is hard to accurately estimation the magnitude of this wave.
As of 15.11.2022, the number of refugees who left Ukraine is higher than 7 843 714 people. As a result, the arrival of another 2 million migrants will be a challenge for the countries that will become their destination. The absorption capacity of individual countries is not unlimited.
It should besides be noted that the current labour marketplace structure in the EU fosters a strong professional activation of refugees. Depending on the country, however, this process is at a different pace. It is the fastest in Poland. In Germany, however, it is no longer so good.
The language barrier there is harder to jump. Consequently, the absorption of Ukrainians by the German labour marketplace takes longer. Whether migrants can find employment or not depends on the velocity of achieving independence.
This applies especially to the ability to pay bills. This is peculiarly crucial in a situation where inflation is raging in Europe. Many EU hosts who supply shelter to refugees for free or in return for a tiny fee may not be able to afford to keep additional householders.
Migration situation in North Africa and the mediate East
Countries located in North Africa and the mediate East (MENA) are peculiarly susceptible to temporary outflows to EU countries. This is due, among others, to the existence of crucial shortages of drinking water there, as well as the dependence of many areas of North Africa and the mediate East on food imports.
Expected drinking water shortages in the planet in 2040. Source: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian AidA large group of experts even believes that rising food costs on the planet market was 1 of the main reasons for the outbreak of the arabian Spring. A fewer years later, while this problem remained unresolved, the inflation in question caused migration from MENA to Europe.
From these dependencies, the Kremlin authorities are well aware. Moreover, the current circumstances encourage the usage of population movements to strengthen force on EU countries. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, it was noted a immense increase in global food prices.
2021 brought besides record drought in North Africa and the mediate East. It continues to this day. The power of the tools that W. Putin holds in his hands can be seen on the example of the Ukrainian-Turkish-Russian arrangement concerning Ukrainian grain exports.
Since it was signed food prices began to decline gradually. However, if Russia blocked exports of Ukrainian grain, it would most likely have contributed to a large wave of migration from the mediate East and North Africa to Europe.
It could be further supported by population influx from the direction Kaliningrad OblastBelarus and Finland. It is hard to estimation the scale of the force of refugees on the external borders of the Union. W 2015 at least 1 million people reached Europe as a consequence of akin movements.
However, since then, the population of the MENA region has increased, as well as migratory pressures in the immediate EU environment. Only Turkey presently resides 3.3 million Syrian refugees. According to Ariel, the possible migration wave from the MENA region would so be much larger than the 1 we faced in 2015.
Migration from Russia
There is besides a large wave of emigration from Russia today. The Georgian authorities have stated that from the minute of the announcement of the mobilization, to their country over 700,000 Russians arrived.. Most of them went to another countries, including Turkey and European countries.
There is no known number of Russians who crossed the border with Kazakhstan. However, we can anticipate that as the economical situation in Russia deteriorates, and further waves of mobilisation, the number of migrants from Russia will increase.
First of all, mediate class representatives decide to leave. The Kremlin is aware that they are the social group from which W. Putin's top threat to the stableness of power. Therefore, with the exception of those working in the IT industry, it does not take steps to reduce the outflow of the population.
Summary
The Kremlin so has tools of influence that may increase the hazard of occurrence as well as the strength of possible population inflows from Ukraine, the MENA region and Russia itself. Migration from these directions could possibly be more than a million people from each of them.
This is simply a challenge for both Poland and the full European Union. In our opinion, there is inactive besides much talk about ‘hybrid war’, and besides small is being done to counter threats from Russia. About this, How do we do it in the last column?.
Ps: Ariel would like to thank you here Kamil Kiss from the Centre for east Studies for many valuable comments on the current situation in Moldova.
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