- Under agreements with Jedddy in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, there is to be a ceasefire with Russia for 30 days. Now that these arrangements have come into force, Russia must agree to them.
- This is highly doubtful, and all decision by Vladimir Putin is very risky to him himself.
- The expert emphasizes that Putin can scope for agent resources, just as in Washington, D.C., as in Kiev, in order to lose the agreement with Jedddy. “In the meantime, he will effort to militarily put Ukraine on its knees,” he points out
- According to Dr. Sokała, a possible defeat of the ceasefire in Ukraine Trump may effort to “take hold” by expanding the force to join Greenland
I don't think he'll accept— According to the Reuter Agency, Vladimir Putin's reaction to the 30-day ceasefire they agreed to in the U.S. and Ukrainea. Putin is to press for the terms of the agreement to include Russian advancement on the battlefield – which is simply a request completely unrealistic.
So far, the Kremlin has been silent, avoiding reacting to the arrangements with Jedddy. “Putin is in the clinic, there is no good script,” says Onet Dr. Witold Sokała, a specialist in global politics and writer of the “Journal of Legal Newspapers”. He's got 2 choices. It can, first, say "no" hard, rejecting the terms of the agreement and not agreeing to any ceasefire. He will then exposure himself to Trump's anger over Russia's torpedoing of his “personal success” — due to the fact that that's how Trump sees the effects of U.S. talks with Ukraine.
All he needs to be happy is Putin's permission, and if the Russian president refuses, Trump will take it very personally," explains Dr. Sokała. “If Putin agrees to the proposed terms, the war will blow up in his face in the country. due to the fact that agreeing to the conditions with Jedddy will be a clear admission that the objectives of the "three-day peculiar operation" have not been achieved by Russia, the expert points out.
— And then the situation of the Kremlin ruler can get very unpleasant. due to the fact that he's got a militarized society, an economy that's switched to war tracks. And you can compression the paste out of the tube, but it's almost impossible to push it back. I It could happen in Russia that a boiler would be made if the average Russian thought Putin sold their country, agreeing to a ceasefire – emphasises Dr. Sokała.
"There are 3 scenarios in the game. 2 heavy agential”
The expert points out that Russia is clearly playing on time now and that this state of affairs will drag as long as possible. “Let us not forget that Russia’s gathering with China and Iran, theoretically on atomic strategy, is scheduled for Friday. However, I do not uncertainty that the Ukrainian issue will be powerfully discussed, says Dr. Sokała. “So by Friday, the Russian offensive in Ukraine will continue, Putin will effort to keep the comparative momentum there, and propaganda will make a good face for the bad game, wondering what real assets stay in his hand,” says the expert.
“ Russia now has 3 scenarios. The first is that the Kremlin will launch unused levers in the US and will effort to convince Trump that the US agreement with Ukraine was a mistake. Then – if Russia has specified sources – we are talking about an agential script in Washington, around Trump or himself as an agent – Dr. Sokała points out. “And if there truly is something here, we will have a abrupt turn, the volt of the American side, Trump criticizes the arrangements with Jedddy and rejects them. Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State who was negotiating in Saudi Arabia, will resign as a result. Only then are the last masks falling down and we have a fierce rebellion throughout the Republican organization – says the expert.
The second script is Russia's launching leverage, which they most likely have in Ukraine. Which means firing off all the operativery so the Ukrainian side would turn the table over. individual in Kiev, even Volodymyr Zelenski himself says that individual on the Ukrainian side went to besides large concessions and not a step back. The Americans then return to the communicative that it is Ukrainians who are “bad guys”, says Dr. Sokała.
In the 3rd option, if the Washington and Kiev checkers did not work, Russia could proceed to play on time, stalling, trying to throw Trump fresh trinkets and hope in the form of any expected benefits in relations in the Arctic, Iran or Africa. And hope that in the meantime, we can origin a military breakthrough and bring Ukraine to its knees. Then peace talks can be made, but on different conditions than those of Juddy – the expert points out.
Trump in Greenland will “take” the fall in Ukraine? “No 1 will rush to the US there”
The opposition liberal organization Democrats, focusing on the economy and not just on Greenland's independence, won the election. Does this consequence mean that Trump will now maximize his efforts to regain this region? And the election results will make it easier for him? “The consequence of the election does not mean anything groundbreaking,” Dr. Sokała says. “The winners are pro-reformist parties, cautious independency liberals, have a reasonable programme to gradually increase economical independency from Denmark. Which will not be easy, due to the fact that present half of Greenland's budget is simply a grant from Copenhagen – he explains.
“It is far away, and very much so, that Greenland will shortly and voluntarily become another U.S. state, regardless of Trump’s pressure. It is more likely to strengthen economical cooperation with America where it can be earned, but it will be an evolution than a revolution," the expert points out. “ Yes, it will become part of a dynamic American economy that tempts, but a large part of the Greenlandians realize that the package includes the fall of state-assisted social, medical, free education. And a possible quota for any exotic war. And no 1 in Greenland will be in a hurry – Dr. Sokała concludes.
