Iran-US: The breakdown of strategical suspension
Pepe Escobar
The blockade is becoming global. The next halt is the Malakka Strait.
No serious analysis can take into account mentally handicapped people talking nonsense about Epstein's syndicate about what is happening in the halls of power in Tehran.
It's like they have any knowledge.
Nothing is ‘divided’ (beyond possibly the baboon psyche of Barbaria). There are, of course, different conceptual approaches and a lively public debate in the country. However, at advanced decision-making levels, the full strategy is powerfully united.
Above all, in Iran, it is simply a completely fresh strategy of power that is undergoing a complete transformation. Its center is simply a emerging security-focused quartet: Head of muslim Revolutionary defender Corps Ahmad Vahidi; talker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf; Secretary of the ultimate National safety Council Mohammad Zolghadr; and Secretary of the Ad hoc Council Mohsen Rezaee.
This security-focused warrant coexists with the erstwhile hybrid order, embodyed by “reformers”, including president Masud Pezeshkian and abroad Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Of the 13 members of the ultimate National safety Council, only 2 are “reformers”.
Above all, there is simply a strong authority of the leader of Ayatollah Mojtaba Chamenei – traditionally very close to the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps.
All of this is incomprehensible to propagandists from Epstein's syndicate or any inexpensive Saudi ‘expert’ who has fantasized about the ‘Revolutionary coup’ by which IRGC allegedly placed Ghalibaf, Pezeshkian and Araghchi under home arrest.
On both the diplomatic and military fronts, Tehran consistently and clearly expressed his position. No negotiations with the piracy empire within the maritime blockade – which is in fact an act of war. No negotiations as long as their ships are under attack – which is in fact a violation of the ceasefire.
Foreign Minister Araghchi went consecutive to the specifics. So, erstwhile again, without removing the blockade, without negotiating.
Iran won't blink. Whatever it takes. The work for destroying the planet economy rests entirely on barbarians.
Illegal blockade and the concept of "innocent flow"
Pawian Barbarians' negotiating strategy, devoured by dementia and hatred, is based on 3 primitive principles: maximum pressure; endless deadlines; and constant, loud threats of demolition of Iranian infrastructure.
Predicting a possible attack on Islamabad 2, Tehran so decided to have strategical silence. Tehran completely ignored the barbarian baboon. Completely confused, the baboon blinked clearly. Now he no longer sets any additional deadlines. No longer threatens to destruct civilian infrastructure. The most crucial question is what happens to the naval blockade.
Article 3(c) of United Nations General Assembly Resolution 3314 (Definition of aggression) states this explicitly: ‘Block of ports or coasts of 1 country by the armed forces of another country’ is considered to be an act of aggression.
This is so a clear violation of the ceasefire.
A completely different communicative is what Iran does, flowing through the Strait of Ormuz.
Iran did not block any abroad ports or impose a complete blockade. However, he charged a fee for passing enemy ships through the straits moving through its territorial waters.
This is entirely legal under the right to self-defense – as a reaction to a unilateral, illegal armed instant war carried out by an imperial superpower.
Moreover, according to the Geneva Convention on the Territorial Sea and the Area adjacent to 1958 and its own national government (Law on Marine Areas of the muslim Republic of Iran 1993) Iran has consistently emphasised that the law of "innocent movement" does not apply to ships that endanger its safety.
Ormuz is the definition of a strategical critical point. It runs through Iranian territorial waters. Therefore, Tehran has a natural sovereign right to regulate the flow of ships that are not innocent.
Naturally, this empire of chaos, lies, plunder and piracy ignores all legality. Especially since de facto The global maritime blockade is already in force – imposed on Iran, Russia, China and sooner or later on any another country of the Global South.
American blockade destroys the global economy
The war on Iran, and now the naval blockade, is simply a ruthless attack on the global economy. Global energy supplies have already fallen by stunning 60 percent – in little than 2 months. The upcoming nightmares include both lockdown and countless cancellations of flights due to deficiency of oil and food shortages next summertime due to fertilizer price explosions; possible food riots; and even possible introduction of CBDC to ration food.
Rocky Horror Show From minute to minute, it takes momentum. Tankers have virtually stopped flowing through the Strait of Ormuz; and the pirate empire is shelling Iranian ships with five-inch missiles. The insurance premiums for tankers in the Persian Gulf increased by a staggering 400 percent in just 1 week.
It seems that Iran will never accept a permanent naval blockade. There will so be retaliation. Regardless of what happens, Brent's oil price is likely to exceed $120 per barrel. Oil supply will decrease importantly by the end of next week. The price of diesel and petrol will emergence in 2 weeks.
We are witnessing how the global energy marketplace is freezing. Just as Iran eased the road toll strategy in the Ormuz Strait as part of the ceasefire, Barbaria began a naval blockade.
So it is Barbaria that is in the process of destroying the planet economy, due to the fact that request for artificial intelligence, kerosene, diesel, maritime transport – all these sectors are seriously affected by immobilized oil tsunamis.
The solution – for the minute – is to redirect traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which accounts for 12 percent of planet trade and 10 percent of global oil trade: this is the only connection between Asia, Africa and Europe through the Suez Canal.
If Ansarallah closes Bab al-Mandab in Yemen, The only remaining way will be Cape Good Hope: up to 2 additional weeks at sea, plus rising transport costs.
All major maritime routes operate at the bandwidth limit. The blockade of Barbaria already includes INDOPACOM. Even this Hollywood production is not adequate to cut off Iranian exports. Barbaria would gotta follow all tanker in the secret fleet, including those from Iraq, and impose additional severe sanctions on Malaysia and China.
Beijing's been silent so far. No authoritative position was taken, but for general calls for the beginning of the Strait of Ormuz. But sooner or later, the dragon could jump through the barrier and intervene in conflict, possibly sending an operating group to Western Asia.
Venezuela. Iran. The next halt is the Malakka Strait.
This strategical uncertainty cannot last forever. Barbaria's game boils down to returning to pre-war position quo: Iran under maximum economical force and continuing threat of war return.
Let us repeat: even erstwhile Tehran caused Washington a devastating strategical defeat, contrary to all expectations, he consistently demanded the complete end of the war, not the frozen 1 suspended during the situation.
The full planet has seen with its own eyes how sovereign opposition can defy the empire after 47 years of destructive sanctions and at a terrible price.
An highly fragile ceasefire won't last. A step towards breaking the blockade of Barbaria is almost inevitable – for example, if besides many Iranian ships are taken. The list of targets has already been announced: the Janbu pipeline in Saudi Arabia that bypasses the Ormuz Strait; the Fujiar terminal in the United arabian Emirates; and the closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This would immediately reduce more than 32 percent of global oil supply.
And all this will be the work of the piracy empire.
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