Iran: The Art of Controlling Escalation Dominance
Pepe Escobar
Iran's consequence to the US provocation has clearly shown that the current version of the proposed 60-day ceasefire is not feasible.
MOSKWA – Iran, unlike the US, has an invincible dominance in escalation. And that's what makes the angry emperor mad.
Let us briefly summarise the most crucial events of last week.
In consequence to the CENTCOM air attack on the area around Bandar Abbas Airport – which was a direct breach of the fiction of the ‘defence of arms’ – the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps (IRGC) carried out the same day a targeted attack on the American base in Kuwait.
The IRGC left no doubt: "If this happens again, our consequence will be more decisive."
The carefully planned consequence of the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps was to be a deliberate warning, clearly signaling that any American provocation would be repulsed – but without causing a full-scale return to war.
At the beginning of last week, 2 U.S. warships attempted to "dark passage" through the Straits of Ormuz: transponders were disabled, surveillance from the Navy of the Revolutionary Guards had to be circumvented, and repeated navigational warnings were ignored.
However, Oman's radio interview detected ships and after completely ignoring warnings, the Navy of the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps conducted a targeted drone attack.
In translation, this meant: This was to strictly enforce the fresh laws governing Iran-controlled shipping corridor at 1 of the most delicate maritime points in the world.
The Zionist axis did not neglect to present Iran's actions as a direct attack on "American hegemony". Therefore, as expected, the White home allowed attacks on Iranian drone installations.
Washington reiterated its military consequence as a proportionate restoration of deterrence. However, Tehran interpreted it as an open American attack during an ongoing ceasefire.
The retaliatory attack of the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps on the Kuwait base so sent another unambiguous signal: American bases in the Persian Gulf – those that have not yet been destroyed – stay legitimate targets and will never again enjoy the position of safe havens.
As expected, CENTCOM did not withdraw. Subsequent attacks took place on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday, sanctions were imposed on the fresh Iranian Ormuz-PGSA monitoring agency.
CENTCOM described the attacks on Iran's radars and command facilities in Goruk and on Keshm Island as ‘attacks in self-defense’.
The IRGC air-space forces then attacked the Kuwaiti air base from which the American attacks originated, declaring that ‘the planned targets were destroyed’. They added that work rests “on the American regime”.
He returned a dangerous escalation cycle.
Trump and CENTCOM may see this as a tactical deterrent. Tehran considers this strategical dishonesty.
What they won't tell you
Iran's consequence to the US provocation has clearly shown that the current version of the proposed 60-day ceasefire is not feasible.
China officially supports a 60-day ceasefire. However, the United States is practically constantly breaking the current, already fragile, ceasefire.
The talks held in Shanghai last week made it clear that China has very close contacts with Iran and is constantly taking into account developments on land and in the air in its much broader, long-term strategical calculations – in peculiar with respect to energy flows through the Ormuz Strait.
Moreover, on a large geopolitical chessboard, it is crucial that China and Pakistan on the frontlines and Russia and the Korean People's Democratic Republic in the background proceed to supply material and strategical support to Iran – at respective levels of deliberate ambiguity and credible denial.
The strength of this coordination is constantly increasing.
The attacks on Iran over the past week have served only 1 entity: the cult of death in Western Asia, whose strategical nonsubjective is to weaken Iran's military infrastructure and to permanently push Tehran into the defensive – regardless of the immense hazard to real American interests and stableness of Western Asia.
The perspectives are obvious: Pentagon generals can theoretically look for ways to get out of the situation, but political leaders of what could be called "Epstein's syndicate" want war.
None of the Petro-monarchy in the Persian Gulf – but the United arabian Emirates, or “Arab Zionists” in short – wants the US to resume war.
Their concerns are clearly existential.
They know IRGC capabilities. They besides know that the possible accession of Ansarallah to the Yemeni war would lead to massive retaliatory disasters – with attacks on ports and energy facilities.
The States of the Gulf Cooperation Council are inactive in constant fear.
Iran's consequence to the direct attacks from the United arabian Emirates, now publically known, will take place in due time.
However, an even more pressing problem is the actual collapse of the actual UAE monopoly on the shipping marketplace in Western Asia.
Iran and Pakistan have connected regional transit nodes within a fewer weeks, beginning 7 levels of land corridors straight connected to the Chinese-Pakistan economical Corridor (CPEC).
Iran and Pakistan are partners of the Belt and way Initiative.
This besides applies to their ports: Chabahar in Sistan-Belujahistan and Gwadar on the Arabian Sea, just 80 kilometres apart, experience a fresh and unexpected symbiosis.
The United arabian Emirates' semi-sea monopoly in Western Asia has lost its importance.
As for the centre of events – the Strait of Ormuz – one more time a certain border was crossed.
If CENTCOM dares to further provoke and escalate the situation, IRGC's next reaction will be a direct attack on the throat and the complete demolition of the American air force.
Therefore, from actors who want moderation – China, Pakistan, Petro-monarchy in the Persian Gulf and the Pragmatists in Iran – it depends on whether they have the essential influence to prevent the return of war.
The facts are clear.
Trump has virtually no effect on Iran.
A Iran has an insurmountable lead in escalation.
What happened last week goes far beyond the momentary escalation of tensions in the Strait of Ormuz. This is simply a serious, ongoing structural crisis in Western Asia – a much deeper and more unstable structure that is at the core of the full drama.
This highly volatile context – illustrated by the disclosure of exclusive information – will in the future be analysed on a fresh independent platform called Power Shift.
Power Shift will have its planet premiere next Monday, June 1 at 5:30 east Time. His first peculiar edition will be entitled:
"Iran: What they won't tell you".
People from all over the planet who have adequate controlled narratives and are looking for reliable analysis can be there live.
I'll join you from Moscow. Exclusive. Unfiltered. No censorship.
